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Old 06-25-2016   #361
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Originally Posted by fireblade View Post
Anarchy is knocking on the front door. . .
Eh? Would you care to explain what you mean by that?

For that matter, can you explain what you mean by that?

Cheers,

R.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #362
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I am staying out of the political discussions here. I chat about statistics.
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Old 06-25-2016   #363
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Originally Posted by raid View Post
. . . People deciding not to vote lose their rights to decide a poll if they don't vote. . . .
You are indisputably right, but the unfortunate part is that they don't also lose their rights to whine about the results.

Cheers,

R.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #364
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Originally Posted by raid View Post
Hm. These are questionable statistical analyses here.
In an democracy, only votes that were cast count. People deciding not to vote lose their rights to decide a poll if they don't vote.
52% of the total number of votes is what it is. The majority.
Taking 52% of the portion (voting for BREXIT)/(Total number of potential voters but who did not really all vote) is not very meaningful.
Therefore, 38% x 52% means very little here.
Hi,

It was a comment about the tail wagging the dog, not the maths.

Regards, David
 

Old 06-25-2016   #365
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I am staying out of the political discussions here. I chat about statistics.
Even then, the statistics are a political question, because democracy comes in many flavours. In classical Greek democracy, it wasn't just children who couldn't vote: slaves and women were excluded too. Then there's the question of the age at which one becomes an adult (bar/bat mitzvah?, 16? 18? 21?) and whether in this case those under (say) 30 should have two votes, because they'll be affected longer.

Cheers,

R.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #366
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Hi,

It was a comment about the tail wagging the dog, not the maths.

Regards, David
Dear David,

But what if the dog couldn't be arsed (as it were)?

Cheers,

R.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #367
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Got it! All I have to do is get my French friends to adopt me but that might be difficult as they are 10-15 years younger...

Seriously, I'm amazed at the number of people who have mentioned to me that they've Irish grand-parents and are thinking about dual nationality.

Regards, David
 

Old 06-25-2016   #368
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Quote:
Originally Posted by photomoof View Post
http://www.economist.com/news/britai...tile-financial

A rather straightforward explanation of what the options are:

"In practice the EU will offer Britain only two possible deals. The first is to join Norway in the European Economic Area. This would preserve full access to the single market. But, like Norway, Britain would have to make a hefty contribution to the EU budget (Norway pays about 85% as much as Britain per head), observe all EU single-market regulations with no say in making them and, crucially, accept free movement of people from the EU. It is hard to imagine a post-Brexit government accepting this. The second is a free-trade deal like the EUs with Canada. Yet this does not cover all trade, does not eliminate non-tariff barriers, excludes most financial services and could take years to agree.

The other option for Britain is to revert to trading with the EU as America, China and India do, under normal World Trade Organisation rules. But most economists say this would make the economic damage from Brexit worse. It would bring back mutual tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals, food and fish. It would reinstate many non-tariff barriers. And it would exclude most services, including financial services.

The pound slumped to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985. ... Most economists agree with the Treasury that the British economy is now likely to fall into recession."

It would be bad for everyone if Great Britain shrivelled into Little England... http://www.economist.com/news/leader...w-tragic-split
Strange they can publish this AFTER the poll...
 

Old 06-25-2016   #369
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You would think that such a concise summary for the options would have made some difference.
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Old 06-25-2016   #370
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Originally Posted by photomoof View Post
10% discount on vacation homes in the UK for those buying with dollars.

Vanguard is running a sale on their ETF's and Funds this morning.
Unfortunately the pound is still 30% higher than the US dollar (which like it or not is still the world's standard). So I'll be looking for a house in the Caribbean.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #371
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Originally Posted by Merlijn53 View Post
The problem is, as with most democratic actions, that most voters don't have a clue what it's all about and what the consequenses are. So, whatever they vote, it will seldom be the best decision.
I agree, let's do away with elections and parliaments and get back to Kings (and Queens) or just good old dictators. Life would be so much simpler.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #372
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Unfortunately the pound is still 30% higher than the US dollar (which like it or not is still the world's standard). So I'll be looking for a house in the Caribbean.
Eh? It's prices that matter, not the size of the unit of reckoning. A house at $100,000 or 90,000€ or 75,000 or 10 million yen still costs much the same (obviously I'm using rounded exchange rates and numbers).

Cheers,

R.

Last edited by Roger Hicks : 06-25-2016 at 10:50. Reason: miscalculation
 

Old 06-25-2016   #373
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I agree with Roger. I often hear statements about "the US Dollar is worth x times so and so currency" as if this were meaningful. The buying power relative to the income is the important factor. If the EURO is 1.11 US $, this does not mean that Europeans using the EURO are 11% wealthier than Americans.
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Old 06-25-2016   #374
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Originally Posted by photomoof View Post
You do not hold any currency or property in Europe?

Exchange rates matter on so many levels, personal and commercial, in a global-based economy.
The constantly varying relationship between different units of currency is nothing to do with the size of the unit of reckoning.

In fact, it really only matters much if you're speculating (which is why it varies so much and so rapidly) or if your income is in other currencies than the one(s) you spend. The value of the euro against the dollar or pound has no effect whatsoever on the value of my house, for example.

Cheers,

R.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #375
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The value of the currency matters to me mostly when we travel to another country. Once, the US $ was worth EURO 1.20, and on another trip, it was the other way around. Such changes have an effect on the buying power in the country where we travel. I try to compensate (when the $ is down) by pre-paying with $ from the US. The global market (internet) also can be helpful in minimizing the loss of buying power as hotels and rental car companies and flight companies target the (large) US market.
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Old 06-25-2016   #376
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Wasn't really thinking about your house. But yes, true.


True about travel, but I was thinking more personally about sales I have made in Europe, especially in the UK, where the exchange rate suddenly changed for the worse against me. Too many Euros now, it is painful to think -- did not move them years ago.

It's just human nature I suppose, just kept thinking the dollar just can't get any stronger? Roger is right, one can still spend Euros on a house down payment if buying in the EU, and it is still worth the same amount.

When buying homes or selling property outside of one's home country it is really impossible to time currency fluctuations.
Hi,

You don't have to as you can buy - or rather - earmark funds at an agreed rate for future use. (Or hide wads of cash under the mattress... )

Talking of holiday money, the biggest mistake people make is to cash in the left over money at the end of the holiday.

Regards, David
 

Old 06-25-2016   #377
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Living in the USA is often a matter of balancing loans. You make more money, so you get a larger loan to get something nicer (home or car or ...).
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Old 06-25-2016   #378
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Amongst all the interesting arguments about the roles of racist nationalism and economic disintegration in the Brexit vote, I came upon this little gem from one of the European pundits in the New York Times:

"We can still repair the damage done to democracy in our rush to move beyond national borders by admitting to the problems. If, for instance, European internal migrants really have lowered the wages in Britain, this is a serious problem. But it can be dealt with through, say, stricter control of the labor market — not abandonment of the entire framework for European cooperation."

Gosh, did all those Southern and Eastern Europeans moving in depress wages? Who would have expected that?

Oh I know who - Americans, who didn't worry so much about the influx of low-wage labor and the deterioration of the trade unions until their lousy office job got outsourced. It was nice to have an undocumented worker mowing your lawn and fixing the roof, but now that you are cast down with the rabble you get a new perspective on who your enemies are.

Unfortunately, amongst the poorly educated who have only a dim view of their place in the world, the new enemy is not the corporate executives who sent their job to India, the new enemy is their rabble-mate. And if that poor schmuck just recently moved to the hood, that's really bad.

Racism and hatred of the other is part of our Original Sin (sorry to use such a quaint term). I do not expect more of 'common people' whether they are in the US, the UK or France. When their way of life is eroded, it is human reflex to cast a sour eye on the newcomer who is now competing for your livelihood, and who looks different and speaks a foreign language.

But when educated people claim to be above these impulses, they are lying to themselves. My university colleagues happily live in the rainbow world of academia - after all, they are in their globalized comfort zone, with friendly (or at least 'collegial') PhDs from around the world, well-behaved students of every race and orientation. But in my experience, I can count on the fingers of one hand the number of people from my university who reside in the city and actually live day-to-day with a broad spectrum of humanity.

They are hypocrites - they will bristle if you bring this up to them. It's all about the kids!
They need a good school system! But the fact is that many are afraid to venture far away from the campus on foot. One lady in our administration was afraid to go to a spice shop not far from here because she 'might get shot'. (For anyone listening in from Philly, the shop in question was near the corner of 42nd & Walnut, and we're talking broad daylight.) Was that a rational reaction? No, in the back of her mind she has a boogey man waiting for her at every corner. But she would never use the 'N word' - that would be an admission of an unfortunate impulse she would rather not expose. And someone might report her to Human Resources!

So I have been really fascinated by some of the comments about this. There seems a desperate refusal to understand that people are on the edge because their lives and expectations are falling apart, and yeah, their natural tendencies to racism and xenophobia will be exacerbated. Did you expect anything else?

The young people in Britain are joining in the condemnation of their elders, mainly because they have no perspective from a time when human labor was better-respected and valued. (And THAT was a hard-won battle that has been totally lost again.) One young lady on the 'pro-remain' side was quoted in the Times; she had finally got a job - as a barista - after searching for a year, and was arguing with her mother over the vote. With the exit from the EU she might not even have that much! Is that any more pathetic than our college grads in the US who seem to be expected - every single one - to take an unpaid 'internship' to have any hope of landing a professional job?

When people are this disrespected, this devalued by an unaccountable elite, they will take it only so long. Truly, they have become 'human resources', just stuff to be used up so someone can make a profit.

I am planning a trip to Europe next year, the pound will probably still be down and at least part of the stay should be inexpensive. (By the way, won't the weak GBP help increase exports? One of youse above was bemoaning that Britain relied on exports to your EU partners.) I will also cross the channel and see how things look in France. The French are not as well-behaved as US and UK citizens, they have been striking and rioting in a desperate attempt to maintain what they have. And yeah, they too will start to look at foreigners with fear and derision, they are made of the same stuff as all the rest of us.

The prescriptions of that NY Times journalist - labor protections, etc - would have made sense, but that would only have happened if the people at the top ever paid more than a moment's notice to the rabble they lord over. As it stands now, the advice is a buck short and a day late.

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Old 06-25-2016   #379
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Originally Posted by Roger Hicks View Post
You are indisputably right, but the unfortunate part is that they don't also lose their rights to whine about the results.

Cheers,

R.
Talking about people who have a second thought:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-36616955

Now they can present the bill to Johnson and Farage.
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Old 06-25-2016   #380
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Talking about people who have a second thought:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-36616955

Now they can present the bill to Johnson and Farage.
Surprise, surprise. You know I'm a Cornishman? Who backed Stay?

But then, 50% of people are below average intelligence. Even in Cornwall.

Cheers,

R.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #381
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No matter which side of this argument you are on, we as photographers should have keen eyes.

It is uncanny how Boris' hair matches Donald's as if they were long lost cousins.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #382
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No matter which side of this argument you are on, we as photographers should have keen eyes.

It is uncanny how Boris' hair matches Donald's as if they were long lost cousins.


I heard that Donnie denied he knows who Johnson is..
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Old 06-25-2016   #383
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Both were produced in a north korean gene lab and then released to ruin the western world. The plan works quite well so far.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #384
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[IMG]. by T&T and Mr B Abrahamsson, on Flickr[/IMG]
I am saddened by the result - had to modify the EU flag on the trunk lid!
 

Old 06-25-2016   #385
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. by T&T and Mr B Abrahamsson, on Flickr
I am saddened by the result - had to modify the EU flag on the trunk lid!
The stars on the EU flag are just a design feature and don't represent actual members. However I appreciate your symbolism, be prepared to cross out a few more stars in the coming years.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #386
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The stars on the EU flag are just a design feature and don't represent actual members. However I appreciate your symbolism, be prepared to cross out a few more stars in the coming years.
The number twelve was chosen because it's a common symbol for perfection or completeness, it has indeed nothing to do with the actual number of countries in the EU. If you think, the EU is incomplete without GB, then it's ok to cross out one star.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #387
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The number twelve was chosen because it's a common symbol for perfection or completeness, it has indeed nothing to do with the actual number of countries in the EU. If you think, the EU is incomplete without GB, then it's ok to cross out one star.
I think the EU is better off without the UK. They never were a real part of it. Let's see how they do as the 51-th state, they are already the US lapdog anyway.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #388
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Surprise, surprise. You know I'm a Cornishman? Who backed Stay?

But then, 50% of people are below average intelligence. Even in Cornwall.

Cheers,

R.
Hi,

It's worse in America where 50% are below the median. But I gather they are trying to change that; like our scheme to give everyone a degree of some sort...

Regards, David
 

Old 06-25-2016   #389
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Im a EU citizen and I congratulate Britain.
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Old 06-25-2016   #390
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The UK never was part of the eurozone to start with. Hard to leave something you aren't in. This is the stuff that is troubling the issue. Hardly anyone knows or understands what part of the EU the UK is leaving or is going to belong to. And the politicians aren't helping of course, that would not help their "plans".

As it is now, the UK is part of:
- European Union which includes:
- organisation for security and co-operation in europe
- single euro payments area
- european olympic cimmittees
- european common aviation area
- european civil aviation area
- european committee for standardisation
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- european patent convention
- european atomic energy committee
- european higher education area
- European Customs Union
- European Economic Area
- Council of Europe
- plenty of other european organisations, from ESA to CERN.

The UK is not a member of:
- eurozone
- schengen area
Correction: Britain voted to leave the European Union. I did make the point that the UK made the right choice in not adopting the Euro, though my phrasing was sloppy.
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Old 06-25-2016   #391
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Old 06-25-2016   #392
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There are always "50% below the median".
Definition: The median of a population is that value such that 50% of the population exceed it and 50% fall below it.
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Old 06-25-2016   #393
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There are always "50% below the median".
Definition: The median of a population is that value such that 50% of the population exceed it and 50% fall below it.
Then half the population is dumber than the other half but in America the first half is bigger Hence the (Bio)masses.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #394
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You guys are butchering statistics as it is known!
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Old 06-25-2016   #395
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I heard that Donnie denied he knows who Johnson is..

Now that you post this, I'm in the North Korean gene lab theory camp.

Now for the more detailed question - Do they have earlobes?

We are just all so s*****d I fear no matter what we do.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #396
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You guys are butchering statistics as it is known!
Raid, you would have to agree, based on the voter turn out vs. total population, and Student's T distribution, it was a statistically significant sampling.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #397
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Correction: Britain voted to leave the European Union. I did make the point that the UK made the right choice in not adopting the Euro, though my phrasing was sloppy.
Just like the 350 million a week for the NHS was a sloppy phrasing without doubt.
 

Old 06-25-2016   #398
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Raid, you would have to agree, based on the voter turn out vs. total population, and Student's T distribution, it was a statistically significant sampling.
It would be the z test for a proportion where we test the hypothesis that p is less or equal to 50% versus p exceeds 50%. With such a huge "sample", of course the test will be significant. The difference between BREXIT support and REMAIN support is non-zero, and it favored BREXIT.

This is a statistically significant difference, but is it a meaningful difference on the ground? In clinical trials, we often hear a similar argument. It is of statistical significance, but is it of clinical significance? Drug X shows a 0.1% improvement in the patients over Drug Y. Is it of clinical relevance?
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Old 06-25-2016   #399
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It would be the z test for a proportion where we test the hypothesis that p is less or equal to 50% versus p exceeds 50%. With such a huge "sample", of course the test will be significant. The difference between BREXT support and REMAIN support is non-zero, and it favored BREXT.

This is a statistically significant difference, but is it a meaningful difference on the ground? In clinical trials, we often hear a similar argument. It is of statistical significance, but is it of clinical significance? Drug X shows a 0.1% improvement in the patients over Drug Y. Is it of clinical relevance?
My statistics is limited to photography, unfortunately. We would only say the film is good, or no-good. This held until an old Japanese gentleman told me there was another case, no-good, but ok!. Perhaps the clinical side defines these kind of cases.

I am lucky I no longer need stats to earn an income, mine is quite dated. Worked for that old plus-x though!
 

Old 06-25-2016   #400
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Originally Posted by raid View Post
You guys are butchering statistics as it is known!
That's why I decided to get my limited statistics education from formal course work rather than internet forums, same with economics. An amazing number of people confuse mean (arithmetic average) with median and think that half of the occurences fall below and half above the mean.

That said, there really is no need for considering complicated statistics of the Brexit vote, if the rules are simple majority wins. The results are unfortunate and will be far reaching. But I wouldn't think that there is much possibility of nullifying the results and having a do-over without a huge loss of credibility in the process and some extremely angry "Leave" supporters.
 
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