Year End Results for Kodak

[Skiff]

Under completely ideal conditions (one one film product per day - no production interruptions because of technical problems - three shifts in 24h) about 180,000m² per day. But that is an ideal / theoretical value. Kodak stopped three-shift production in 2003.

[Bill Clark]

X-Ray, which is still a huge market

Geographically, the digital X-ray market is segmented into North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Central & South America, and Middle East and Africa. North America dominated the global market for digital X-ray in 2017, and is projected to maintain its dominance over the forecast period.The region is set to offer lucrative opportunity for digital X-ray market owing to growing research and development activities and growing adoption of advance technologies. Asia-Pacific is expected to witness the highest CAGR during 2018-2024, owing to increasing government and private investment in healthcare sector in the region. Moreover, favorable government regulations and increasing aging population are further boosting the market growth.

From my experience, digital x-ray use is taking over from film. When I get my teeth examined, once a year or so an x-ray photo is made with digital equipment. Same for my eyes. I had a chest x-ray several years ago and the equipment used for the x-ray was captured with digital. Maybe here in Minneapolis we’re ahead of the curve but environmental regulations as well as the ability to instantly view and transmit the results among others cause these changes.

Some info here:

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-r...2018-2024.html

[HHPhoto]

Originally Posted by Bill Clark

From my experience, digital x-ray use is taking over from film.

Bill, that is correct for western industrial markets. The transition to digital is already finished in lots of these markets. But I have written "in Asia", because the situation is different there, especially in China, where the demand for X-ray film is increasing. The reason for that: Healthcare reforms: Thousands of small hospitals were / are built in the rural areas in China. And they are equipped with film X-Ray machines. Because the film systems are much cheaper. Foma - who is very active in that market - has confirmed that to us rff members at our Photokina meeting last year.
Another important factor: Industrial X-Ray in production processes: QC of welding seams. You need a bend media for that. No problem with film. Impossible with digital.
Last year Fujifilm said they increase their activities to gain market share in X-Ray film market. Because it remains an attractive market for the foreseeable future. There is a reason why there are still four really big players in that market: Fujifilm, Agfa, Carestream (former Kodak Healthcare in Windsor) and Foma.

Cheers, Jan

[Bill Clark]

Hi Jan,

My son works at GE medical (he is CFO) and China and India offer tremendous opportunities for digital x-ray equipment. Portability is a requirement on most locations. If x-ray film is still growing, it will be short lived. Just the environmental challenges using film are get tougher, especially waste disposal. And with digital the examiner has instant results and can be read most any where a computer is conncted to the internet. Cell technology comes into play as many locations don’t have infrastructure yet.

Here is a device made in China:

https://baistra.en.made-in-china.com...y-Machine.html

Info on GE:

https://www.gehealthcare.com/en/prod...e-xray-systems

[HHPhoto]

Bill, I am not arguing that. But fact is that the demand for X-Ray film from Asia, especially China and from industrial demand remains strong.
I hope the link to the graphic works. That is the exploding demand from the US only = Carestream:
https://www.google.com/search?q=Dema...QQEogR9bBN0yM:

Even Film Ferrania reported last year that they get permanent requests for X-Ray film from Asia (but they had to say no because they cannot make it).

Cheers, Jan

[brbo]

Originally Posted by Skiff

Under completely ideal conditions (one one film product per day - no production interruptions because of technical problems - three shifts in 24h) about 180,000m² per day. But that is an ideal / theoretical value. Kodak stopped three-shift production in 2003.

Thanks!

So, theoretically, they could do a yearly production of film in a week.

That's roughly in accord with the number that I had in my head, namely that Kodak's B38 could coat a year's demand of any of their emulsion in a day.

[Skiff]

Originally Posted by brbo

Thanks!

So, theoretically, they could do a yearly production of film in a week.

No. For classic photo film production about two weeks. Plus several more weeks for instant film, further more weeks for movie film, several more for X-Ray, a bit more for archival films etc.
Not to talk about one of the biggest film products: PCB films for computer industry.

But, that is all theoretical, because as said you would need a three-shift 24h operation. That means 3x of qualified workforce. That don't exist in the short and mid-term. As the ADOX CEO explained, you need about 5 years to educate an engineer or chemist (after his exams) to become an emulsionist or coating engineer.

[ptpdprinter]

Originally Posted by HHPhoto

Even Film Ferrania reported last year that they get permanent requests for X-Ray film from Asia (but they had to say no because they cannot make it).

What is a "permanent request"?

[HHPhoto]

Originally Posted by ptpdprinter

What is a "permanent request"?

I am so sorry for my horrible English. I am not a native speaker.
What I meant was that they received several requests from different potential high-volume customers.

Cheers, Jan

[maigo]

Originally Posted by HHPhoto

I am so sorry for my horrible English. I am not a native speaker.
What I meant was that they received several requests from different potential high-volume customers.

Cheers, Jan

I think another equivalent term is: standing order.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[brbo]

Fact is, Kodak would do probably anything to keep their coaters as busy as possible.

This "new" film from Yashica...

https://photorumors.com/2019/04/05/c...negative-film/

... definitely looks like it's made at Kodak.

On the other hand, Fuji stopped supplying film that was sold under AgfaPhoto brand by Lupus Imaging.

[ptpdprinter]

Originally Posted by brbo

... definitely looks like it's made at Kodak.

Why does it look like it is made at Kodak rather than Fuji?

[brbo]

Originally Posted by ptpdprinter

Why does it look like it is made at Kodak rather than Fuji?

The film rebate?

[Ambro51]

I wonder if the Kodak Instant film could be reintroduced along with an instant camera line. Yes they got into expensive legal trouble with poloroid. But maybe this could be ironed out now. Printing is a dying trade too.

[CharlesDAMorgan]

Originally Posted by HHPhoto

I am so sorry for my horrible English. I am not a native speaker.
What I meant was that they received several requests from different potential high-volume customers.

Cheers, Jan

Don't apologise for a minor word issue, your English is excellent and you use it well to help others. Thanks!

[brbo]

Originally Posted by Ambro51

I wonder if the Kodak Instant film could be reintroduced along with an instant camera line. Yes they got into expensive legal trouble with poloroid. But maybe this could be ironed out now. Printing is a dying trade too.

Highly unlikely. Even more after they licensed out their name for this:

https://www.theverge.com/circuitbrea...inter-ces-2019

[KM-25]

Originally Posted by Ted Striker

Who here is not interested in the future of Kodak?

A lot of us are and in some cases, really depend on the products. But your track record on quite often being the bearer of bad news is unmistakable, would you not agree?

None of this is in our control, only our passion for the craft is. I would love to see you turn to a new outlook / chapter.

[HHPhoto]

Originally Posted by KM-25

A lot of us are and in some cases, really depend on the products. But your track record on quite often being the bearer of bad news is unmistakable, would you not agree?

None of this is in our control, only our passion for the craft is. I would love to see you turn to a new outlook / chapter.

+1.

Cheers, Jan

[jarski]

Originally Posted by KM-25

A lot of us are and in some cases, really depend on the products. But your track record on quite often being the bearer of bad news is unmistakable, would you not agree?

...

Don't shoot the messenger as the saying goes. I would have lost news without this thread, and spent my time merrily reading how digital apocalypse is nearing

[Skiff]

Originally Posted by KM-25

A lot of us are and in some cases, really depend on the products. But your track record on quite often being the bearer of bad news is unmistakable, would you not agree?

None of this is in our control, only our passion for the craft is. I would love to see you turn to a new outlook / chapter.

I completely agree. His track record is very clear: Always the focus on negative aspects, whether it is Kodak, Fujifilm, recently Tetenal, labs and so on. And unfortunately often mixed up with some misinformation as well.

[Ko.Fe.]

Ferrania is not valid argument, it is joke.

I don't think here is any X-Ray left on film where I'm. Not in dentists office, it is instant on computers, not in our hospital.

Making film is not a problem, selling it is. It is now niche market not mass market anymore.

[HHPhoto]

Originally Posted by Ko.Fe.

I don't think here is any X-Ray left on film where I'm. Not in dentists office, it is instant on computers, not in our hospital.

As explained above, the market for X-Ray film is much different today compared to 20 years ago:
- in healthcare operation in industrial countries most applications have transferred to digital
but
- there is a huge and growing market for X-Ray film in emerging markets like China
- there is a huge industrial market for QC were film is the only technical option (digital is not possible there).
Because of the current market for X-Ray film being still attractive the big companies Fujifilm, Agfa, Carestream and Foma continue to produce X-Ray film.

Originally Posted by Ko.Fe.

Making film is not a problem, selling it is. It is now niche market not mass market anymore.

That is not correct in such generalisation. Fact is that the market for standard photo film is growing. Fact is that the market for instant film has already become a huge mass market with about 40 million users worldwide (due to Fujifilm). It is a bigger market than DSLRs and DSLMs now!!
The challenge is to make film in a profitable way (highly recommended: Look at ADOX presentation at the Helsinki photo fair were that is explained by ADOX CEO). We have to accept a bit higher prices.

Cheers, Jan

[traveler_101]

Originally Posted by HHPhoto

As explained above, the market for X-Ray film is much different today compared to 20 years ago:
- in healthcare operation in industrial countries most applications have transferred to digital
but
- there is a huge and growing market for X-Ray film in emerging markets like China
- there is a huge industrial market for QC were film is the only technical option (digital is not possible there).
Because of the current market for X-Ray film being still attractive the big companies Fujifilm, Agfa, Carestream and Foma continue to produce X-Ray film.



That is not correct in such generalisation. Fact is that the market for standard photo film is growing. Fact is that the market for instant film has already become a huge mass market with about 40 million users worldwide (due to Fujifilm). It is a bigger market than DSLRs and DSLMs now!!
The challenge is to make film in a profitable way (highly recommended: Look at ADOX presentation at the Helsinki photo fair were that is explained by ADOX CEO). We have to accept a bit higher prices.

Cheers, Jan

Jan,

It would be nice (for us) if it were factually correct that x-ray film technology was simply cheaper and more flexible and thereby a far better product for rural and less developed regions than digital technology. That would imply a large and potentially sustained mass market for film. But the alternative view stated by Bill Clark is that this market is in the process of being colonised by digital technology. In other words, the market for x-ray film is the result of a technological lag which will close in the future. Not sure which of these views is correct.

You refer to an interview with the Adox CEO. I've been watching this one, not sure if that is the one you had in mind -https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=DpNIKGN9Fas
In any case, I find this guy, Bøddecker, amazing in his energy and dedication to his task. But I read this differently than you do. It seems to me that he has learned from experience that the present supply train is unreliable and that the only way to maintain film production is to develop firms based on artisanal production, i.e. small scale, in-house and self-sufficient. It's not a theory; he has done it and is continuing with the process of building a sustainable firm. The reason he can do it, apparently, is that he has a small but stable market niche in Germany, he knows the needs of that market and he can count on sustained demand. This is a world away from the likes of Kodak and Fuji and Foma.

[HHPhoto]

Originally Posted by traveler_101

Jan,

It would be nice (for us) if it were factually correct that x-ray film technology was simply cheaper and more flexible and thereby a far better product for rural and less developed regions than digital technology. That would imply a large and potentially sustained mass market for film. But the alternative view stated by Bill Clark is that this market is in the process of being colonised by digital technology. In other words, the market for x-ray film is the result of a technological lag which will close in the future. Not sure which of these views is correct.

Even if this technology lag may be closed in the future, it will take a very long time. Because there are so much developing countries which are decades behind in technology. They simply cannot catch up in some years.
And as I've already explained, X-Ray film is not only used in healthcare, but also in industry for QC of bended welding seams. You need a flexible, bendable medium for that: film. That is not possible with digital.

Originally Posted by traveler_101

You refer to an interview with the Adox CEO. I've been watching this one, not sure if that is the one you had in mind -https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=DpNIKGN9Fas
In any case, I find this guy, Bøddecker, amazing in his energy and dedication to his task. But I read this differently than you do. It seems to me that he has learned from experience that the present supply train is unreliable and that the only way to maintain film production is to develop firms based on artisanal production, i.e. small scale, in-house and self-sufficient. It's not a theory; he has done it and is continuing with the process of building a sustainable firm. The reason he can do it, apparently, is that he has a small but stable market niche in Germany, he knows the needs of that market and he can count on sustained demand. This is a world away from the likes of Kodak and Fuji and Foma.

No, I was referring to this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3bHwFlmBEY


Nevertheless you have misunderstood him:
Film manufacturers like Fujifilm, Kodak, Ilford and (partly) Foma are self-sustained. They can do most things in-house. Therefore they have big competitive advantages to smaller companies. For example Fuji, Kodak and Ilford are producing their own 35mm cartridges in-house, and are not dependent on suppliers.
And that is the target of ADOX in the long run: Becoming more independent from suppliers, step by step. Because in the past some of their suppliers stopped production.
The aim of ADOX is not to replace one of the bigger manufacturers (they know that is unrealistic), but to offer a long-term stable addition to the market and fill market gaps (like they have already done by continuing the Agfa photo chemistry line, the Agfa BW photo paper line, the Scala BW reversal line, soon the Polywarmtone paper).

Cheers, Jan

[traveler_101]

Originally Posted by HHPhoto

Even if this technology lag may be closed in the future, it will take a very long time. Because there are so much developing countries which are decades behind in technology. They simply cannot catch up in some years.
And as I've already explained, X-Ray film is not only used in healthcare, but also in industry for QC of bended welding seams. You need a flexible, bendable medium for that: film. That is not possible with digital.




No, I was referring to this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3bHwFlmBEY


Nevertheless you have misunderstood him:
Film manufacturers like Fujifilm, Kodak, Ilford and (partly) Foma are self-sustained. They can do most things in-house. Therefore they have big competitive advantages to smaller companies. For example Fuji, Kodak and Ilford are producing their own 35mm cartridges in-house, and are not dependent on suppliers.
And that is the target of ADOX in the long run: Becoming more independent from suppliers, step by step. Because in the past some of their suppliers stopped production.
The aim of ADOX is not to replace one of the bigger manufacturers (they know that is unrealistic), but to offer a long-term stable addition to the market and fill market gaps (like they have already done by continuing the Agfa photo chemistry line, the Agfa BW photo paper line, the Scala BW reversal line, soon the Polywarmtone paper).

Cheers, Jan

You didn't read my post very carefully. You seem to be driven by some kind of ideology that sees only the positive side of the present economy.

[Ted Striker]

Originally Posted by HHPhoto

Even if this technology lag may be closed in the future, it will take a very long time. Because there are so much developing countries which are decades behind in technology. They simply cannot catch up in some years.
And as I've already explained, X-Ray film is not only used in healthcare, but also in industry for QC of bended welding seams. You need a flexible, bendable medium for that: film. That is not possible with digital.

You are misinformed, or more likely, simply guessing. China is NOT a huge market for X-Ray film. I lived there for 7 years and am intimately familiar with their medical system. EVERY last X-ray machine I saw there was digital. Never once did I see any film in use.

China is a robustly growing technological marvel. They have 20,000 km's of high speed (180+ mph) rail. They spend more on technology development than almost any other country. They are certainly not decades behind other countries.

Originally Posted by HHPhoto

No, I was referring to this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3bHwFlmBEY


Nevertheless you have misunderstood him:
Film manufacturers like Fujifilm, Kodak, Ilford and (partly) Foma are self-sustained.

Nonsense. Kodak has dismantled a huge part of their film manufacturing. They have outsourced paper, acetate, and all their chemical production abilities. Kodak isnt remotely self sufficient anymore.

[Ted Striker]

Originally Posted by traveler_101

You didn't read my post very carefully. You seem to be driven by some kind of ideology that sees only the positive side of the present economy.

Well said.

[HHPhoto]

Originally Posted by traveler_101

You seem to be driven by some kind of ideology that sees only the positive side of the present economy.

Sorry, with all respect, but that is ridiculous.
I try to give a realistic picture of the current situation in the film photography industry. The problem here at rff is that we get permanently bombarded by the "doom and gloom" postings of T.S.
A guy who has absolutely no knowledege about the film industry. He has demonstrated that again and again and again.

Have you ever talked personally to someone relevant in the film industry? Or T.S? No, you haven't. I have (I've even worked as an engineer for a camera manufacturer supplier).
I've often talked to the relevant people at Photokina. As explained here several times, last year we've had a rff member meeting at Photokina, and we've all talked to all the companies there in the film industry. And these companies were very clear on the fact that there is a film revival.
These companies know their market. They know their numbers.
But the "doom and gloom" ideologists here don't know these numbers. Period.
There is a reason why we see new products and new companies entering the market.


Cheers, Jan

[HHPhoto]

Originally Posted by Ted Striker

You are, as usual, sadly misinformed, or more likely, simply guessing. China is NOT a huge market for X-Ray film.

Completely wrong. We (rff members at the Photokina meeting) have talked to the guys working in the X-ray film market. And there is a strong and increasing demand from China (as prove I've given the links in one posting above). They of course know their sales numbers! You don't.
The reason for that demand: In the rural areas in China several thousand new, small medical centers / stations have been built. To get basic element healthcare to the rural people. And at these stations film-based X-ray has been implemented.
And again: Medical X-ray is only one part for X-ray film demand. Industrial demand is big. There is a reason why Fujifilm, Agfa, Carestream and Foma remain all very active in that market.

Originally Posted by Ted Striker

I lived there for 7 years and am intimately familiar with their medical system. EVERY last X-ray machine I saw there was digital. Never once did I see any film in use.

Another comment which clearly demonstrated your extremely limited horizon: You told you have lived in Shanghai. That is completely different to the rural, western parts of China. China is a very divided country: The modern huge metropol regions in east and at the cost, and the rural aeras, which are still quite close in development to NIC/emerging country/developing country level.
I know China. I've been there. I have friends there. I will be there again this year.

I well remember one of your former posts concerning labs in Shanghai: You said you've found only one there. I have showed that comment to one of my Chinese friends from Shanghai. Here is his reply, I quote: "Lol, this guy has absolutely no clue! Either he is blind, ignorant, too lazy to look for, or has never been in Shanghai. There are lots of film photography labs in Shanghai. The interest for film is increasing here, by the way."

Originally Posted by Ted Striker

China is a robustly growing technological marvel. They have 20,000 km's of high speed (180+ mph) rail. They spend more on technology development than almost any other country.

That is right and I have not doubt that at all. But fact is that there are still really huge differences in development between the regions, between the big cities and the countryside (still more than half of the total population is living outside the big cities). And the income of the rural people is still very low.

Originally Posted by Ted Striker

Nonsense. Kodak has dismantled a huge part of their film manufacturing.

That is wrong in such a generalisation. As explained above, Kodak makes their 35mm cartridges by themselves. Do yourself a favour and simply invest a tiny amount of money in education by buying R. Shanebrooks book about Kodak.

Cheers, Jan

[Ted Striker]

Originally Posted by HHPhoto

There is a reason why we see new products and new companies entering the market.

And there's also a reason why we are seeing Fujifilm exit the non INSTAX film market and why Kodak's stock is being absolutely smashed by investors today, (-9% just today alone).

[jawarden]

Originally Posted by Ted Striker

You do nothing of the kind. Most here in this forum see your bias for what it is.

Actually what we see are a couple of bickering children that ought to put each other on their ignore lists.

[Skiff]

Originally Posted by Ted Striker

I have also seen digital X-ray devices in rural Thailand. No sign of film use there.

O.k. In all your endless wisdom you have multiple times explained to all us idiots here (I have also been one of those participants of the rff member meeting at Photokina who have talked to the film manufacturers) that no one in the world is using x-ray film anymore.

Due to you
Agfa
Fuji
Carestream
Foma
are producing hundreds of thousands m² x-ray film p.a. just to store them. Because no one is buying and using it anymore.

Due to you all these companies are run by complete idiots with no knowledge of their markets. Burning huge amounts of money by producing stuff there is no demand for.
Due to you Fuji is most insane because they have just last year explained to increase their market share of x-ray film because it is an attractive market.

You really should contact all these four companies and tell them how wrong and idiotic they are. You should explain to them that there is no demand for x-ray film anymore. You should tell them that you would be the best CEO for them, because you are the only one who understands the current market reality.
They will be so thankful for your endless wisdom .

[Ted Striker]

Investors must not be too happy with the smaller Kodak as its stock has been hammered down -14% in just two days. Owners of Kodak are taking a shellacking.

[Ted Striker]

Originally Posted by Ted Striker

Investors must not be too happy with the smaller Kodak as its stock has been hammered down -14% in just two days. Owners of Kodak are taking a shellacking.

Well in the 6 days since the last post in this thread, the bottom has fallen out of the market for Kodak. In the last trailing month Kodak stock has plunged -36%. It has trended down every single day the past week. I've searched hard to find news that might explain this plunge in share value but come up empty. Short sellers are moving in strong and that will only continue to drive down the stock price.

[jawarden]

Originally Posted by Ted Striker

Well in the 6 days since the last post in this thread, the bottom has fallen out of the market for Kodak. In the last trailing month Kodak stock has plunged -36%. It has trended down every single day the past week. I've searched hard to find news that might explain this plunge in share value but come up empty. Short sellers are moving in strong and that will only continue to drive down the stock price.

Please just start giving us daily updates on the stock price and a two sentence play-by-play. It took six days for this latest crucial information and I think I can speak for the community when I say that's too long to wait.

[Archiver]

All I know is, as finances allow I will stack away more and more film in the freezer from Kodak and Fuji. I haven't got into black and white shooting, but I might as well buy Tri-X so I'll have some for the future. I wish I'd had the presence of mind to buy more Fuji XTRA 400 when it was available in packs of 8, it was a good price and I could have bought loads of it. Kodak Gold had never really interested me, only Portra VC and NC, now just Portra 160 and 400.