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BREXIT: UK members might want to consider GAS before the June 23 referendum
Old 06-19-2016   #1
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BREXIT: UK members might want to consider GAS before the June 23 referendum

If the "Leave" campaign wins the BREXIT referendum on June 23, the markets are predicting a sharp slide in the pound, to just above parity with the Euro and to around USD$1.30, or perhaps a little lower.

Any UK members looking to purchase overseas at existing exchange rates might want to think about moving quickly if leaving is seen as a real possibility.
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Old 06-19-2016   #2
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Would be a good moment for us to buy some stuff from the UK.
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Old 06-19-2016   #3
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Prices for classic gear from the UK are already on the high side for European users (for Americans they must be sky-high). So they will price themselves out of the market... I don't think they will Brexit
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Old 06-19-2016   #4
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If Brexit happens, would EU buyers have to pay customs taxes and VAT on goods originating from the UK?
 

Old 06-19-2016   #5
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Huub, the prices paid by overseas buyers would go down if they leave.. to more reasonable levels

What I'd be looking forward to is price drops for photo books from bookdepository.co.uk, who are already much cheaper than Australian bookstores (by about 30-40%) - a further 30% discount would be a windfall for us Aussies..
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Old 06-19-2016   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Wijninga View Post
If Brexit happens, would EU buyers have to pay customs taxes and VAT on goods originating from the UK?
of course they would
 

Old 06-19-2016   #7
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Originally Posted by tom.w.bn View Post
of course they would
But the decline in the value of the pound might mean that it was still cheaper.

If the knuckle-draggers win the day, I'm considering French citizenship.

Cheers,

R.
 

Old 06-19-2016   #8
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The raging inferno of the Project fear came even here. If Brexit wins whihc I hope it will, I switch from Kiev to Periflex.
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Old 06-19-2016   #9
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The raging inferno of the Project fear came even here. If Brexit wins whihc I hope it will, I switch from Kiev to Periflex.
Why do the Exit brigade call remain "project fear" when they are the ones making up frightening nonsense such as 350 million a week, pretending that Turkey is about to join the EU and export its entire population, etc.?

Cheers,

R.
 

Old 06-19-2016   #10
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Why do the Exit brigade call remain "project fear" when they are the ones making up frightening nonsense such as 350 million a week, pretending that Turkey is about to join the EU and export its entire population, etc.?

Cheers,

R.
Roger, you were obviously spared in France of all that nonsense of the doomsday predictions like falling pound, exodus of NHS staff, freeze on pensions. Then came the budget promise. I am surprised they have not promised all lubricants suddenly drying up in case of Brexit... Anyway, if all the gloom turns out to be true it will cure quite a few tough GAS cases. Look at the bright side of things.
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Old 06-19-2016   #11
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Originally Posted by tom.w.bn View Post
of course they would
not necessarily. Norway is good example of non-EU country without customs to/from continent:

Wiki:
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The EEA agreement grants Norway access to the EU's internal market. ...
This arrangement facilitates free movement of goods, capital, services and people between the EU and EFTA members including Norway. Free movement of goods means freedom from customs fees, where however food and beverage is excluded (because those are subsidised by the EU).
 

Old 06-19-2016   #12
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not necessarily. Norway is good example of non-EU country without customs to/from continent:

Wiki:
And how did Norway achieve this? They pay for it, they incorporate EU laws and they allow free movement of EU citizens. Those are just a few of the mandatory components if you want to have access to the EU market and those are alle the things the Brexit-Advocates in GB don't want to have. They only want to have access to the EU market without these mandatory components. And thats not possible.
 

Old 06-19-2016   #13
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not necessarily. Norway is good example of non-EU country without customs to/from continent:

Wiki:
It is rather unlikely that the UK will get the same deal as Norway or other EFTA countries - these have negotiated with the EU to the point that they have accepted more or less the same rules from the EU as the latter among themselves, without being represented in the EU. The pro-leave conservatives aren't against having a say in the EU (on the contrary, they reject it for being equilateral, and want "Britain first"), but are against accepting EU rules and regulations. But the EU will hardly offer them a unilateral free ride...
 

Old 06-19-2016   #14
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It is rather unlikely that the UK will get the same deal as Norway or other EFTA countries - these have negotiated with the EU to the point that they have accepted more or less the same rules from the EU as the latter among themselves, without being represented in the EU. The pro-leave conservatives aren't against having a say in the EU (on the contrary, they reject it for being equilateral, and want "Britain first"), but are against accepting EU rules and regulations. But the EU will hardly offer them a unilateral free ride...
I'm not sure about this.
A tax-free border would be mutual, and AFAIK UK is importing from Germany, France and Italy much more than it is exporting to them.
Therefore, it would be in main EU conuntries advantage to keep a tax-free goods exchange.
We can expect EU to folllow this route unless they really whish to punish UK.

Bottom line it would be, as we use to say, "to rip off your balls in order to punish your wife".
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Old 06-19-2016   #15
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tom.w.bn & sevo, wiki I linked mentions "Norway is subject to roughly 21% of EU laws". and yes naturally there are costs, in, partly in, and out. but guess main point was about customs (edit: and exchange rates).
 

Old 06-19-2016   #16
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I don't think we need worry about a Brexit - the Leave campaign has not carried the country with their belittling approach to the rest of the world.

BTW Project Fear is better known as Project Stating The Bleeding Obvious.

I doubt there are many Brexiters on here as they despise experts.
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Old 06-19-2016   #17
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Hi,

There's just a chance Wales and Scotland will stay in and England leave. ;-)

And the Ireland to Northern Ireland border will raise some interesting problems. Then there's all those car number plates with the blue logo and GB. Will they become illegal? Will NF lose his MEP status? It will be fun to see the revenge whoever wins will extract...

Regards, David

PS (Edit) amazing too just how willing our representatives are to avoid answering questions whilst still going on, and on, and on.
 

Old 06-19-2016   #18
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Originally Posted by jarski View Post
not necessarily. Norway is good example of non-EU country without customs to/from continent
It does not apply to import VAT:

Since Norway is not part of the EU, any sale from a Norwegian business to a customer in the EU will be considered an export from Norway. Norwegian exports are exempt from VAT. However, local VAT should be added when the goods are cleared through customs in the EU state of destination.

Similarly, when goods are exported from an EU state to Norwegian customers, the seller should not charge local VAT on the sale. Norwegian VAT will be added when the goods are cleared through customs in Norway.

http://europa.eu/youreurope/business...y/index_en.htm
 

Old 06-19-2016   #19
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Critical thinkers have always scared the "Elite"
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Old 06-19-2016   #20
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But if we were to leave where would we go?

It matters little, if a certain gentleman becomes the next US president he will blow us all to bits so borrow and spend all you can till armageddon arrives on your doorstep.
 

Old 06-19-2016   #21
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The plan is to leave the EU close the borders and reintroduce al the 7 ties
British cars.
 

Old 06-19-2016   #22
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Critical thinkers have always scared the "Elite"
Who in this scenario is a critical thinker and who is the elite? Just curious.
 

Old 06-19-2016   #23
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Back to the main topic - the time to buy stuff from the UK in the event of BREXIT will be in the immediate aftermath of the vote because Sterling will tank but the UK will still be a member of the EU.
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Old 06-19-2016   #24
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This is a good point. Now, where do we get the cash .... ?
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Old 06-19-2016   #25
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Who in this scenario is a critical thinker and who is the elite? Just curious.
The first are all the people who haven't been on TV telling us what to do and why and the second group are the non-doms and rich foreigners who have bought a British passport legally.

Regards, David
 

Old 06-19-2016   #26
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Were those forecasts made by economists? The very same group who didn't predict the financial crisis, and who still can't explain what happened?
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Old 06-19-2016   #27
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I highly doubt that Britain will exit the EU. Despite all their EU hate, they benefit way too much from the EU and it would be suicidal for the British economy if they'd leave.
 

Old 06-19-2016   #28
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I don't think we need worry about a Brexit - the Leave campaign has not carried the country with their belittling approach to the rest of the world.
I hope that you're right, and I wish I had your certitude. The polls are finely balanced, and given their hopeless lack of accuracy in last year's election, it's far too close for my liking.
 

Old 06-20-2016   #29
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Were those forecasts made by economists? The very same group who didn't predict the financial crisis, and who still can't explain what happened?
Dear Robert,

I share your cynicism when it comes to economists, and there are plenty of politicians who are no more reliable; but when you combine the opinions of economists, politicians, scientists, business leaders, and academics in almost all fields, the Leave campaign doesn't have much intellectual weight behind it.

Then consider that the official Leave campaign is led by an unprincipled opportunist liar, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, and that the less official version is backed by Nigel Farage because A.B. de P. J. isn't loony enough for him...

Actually, all economists can explain what happen, because ex post facto explanations are the very stuff of economics, and a few can even explain convincingly: read Ha-Joon Chang, for example. Some also warned that it was going to happen.

I somewhat doubt that many who favour Brexit are much into buying anything directly from other EU countries, because they don't want their cameras smelling of garlic or being stuffed with sausages, even if there were no risk that when you opened the back door of any film camera bought from Europe, 70 million tiny Turks and Albanians would immediately pour out.

The only supporter of UKIP (for Americans, the UK Independence Party) that I knew at all well (he's dead now) was in his 80s before he developed those views, which were greatly at odds with those of his younger, more rational self.

Cheers,

R.
 

Old 06-20-2016   #30
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If the Pound falls, and German and Japanese gear gets more expensive, the Britons will still be able to use this:
http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Vintage-19...oAAOSwbYZXXrqW.
Isn't the "control" what the leave team hopes for? Beyond the petty national accounting, and above lies such as that the EU is antidemocratic, wouldn't it be a sensible idea to contribute to the strength of Europe in this increasingly globalised world, while retaining the possibility to shape its future? Cooperation in the end favours everybody.
 

Old 06-20-2016   #31
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I hope they do vote "Stay", but I guess EU (including UK) can do some "CLA". I've been thinking (and reading Stiglitz, Krugman and Reich confirms my thoughts) that it's not that much EU fault, but rather capitalism itself that is a bit out of adjustment. Acknowledging this and having plan how to fix it (and not only by austerity which leads to "jobless GDP growth") would probably help EU case as well...
 

Old 06-20-2016   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Hicks View Post
Dear Robert,

I share your cynicism when it comes to economists, and there are plenty of politicians who are no more reliable; but when you combine the opinions of economists, politicians, scientists, business leaders, and academics in almost all fields, the Leave campaign doesn't have much intellectual weight behind it.

Then consider that the official Leave campaign is led by an unprincipled opportunist liar, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, and that the less official version is backed by Nigel Farage because A.B. de P. J. isn't loony enough for him...

Actually, all economists can explain what happen, because ex post facto explanations are the very stuff of economics, and a few can even explain convincingly: read Ha-Joon Chang, for example. Some also warned that it was going to happen.

I somewhat doubt that many who favour Brexit are much into buying anything directly from other EU countries, because they don't want their cameras smelling of garlic or being stuffed with sausages, even if there were no risk that when you opened the back door of any film camera bought from Europe, 70 million tiny Turks and Albanians would immediately pour out.

The only supporter of UKIP (for Americans, the UK Independence Party) that I knew at all well (he's dead now) was in his 80s before he developed those views, which were greatly at odds with those of his younger, more rational self.

Cheers,

R.
It may be worth noting that these same economists and business leaders etc prophesised a similar level of doom at the prospect of the UK not joining the Euro. They were wrong (really very badly wrong) then so why should they be trusted now? There is very little merit in many of the economic claims being made by either side. If you believe differently then perhaps digging a little deeper into the facts might prove enlightening. Your assertion (however mild) that anyone who wants to leave the EU is anti European and the language you use to suggest this is well below the belt and in bad taste. There are, believe it or not, some people who will base their decision on the few grains of truth they can glean from the often spurious arguments, not hyperbole.
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Old 06-20-2016   #33
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It may be worth noting that these same economists and business leaders etc prophesised a similar level of doom at the prospect of the UK not joining the Euro. They were wrong (really very badly wrong) then so why should they be trusted now? There is very little merit in many of the economic claims being made by either side. If you believe differently then perhaps digging a little deeper into the facts might prove enlightening. Your assertion (however mild) that anyone who wants to leave the EU is anti European and the language you use to suggest this is well below the belt and in bad taste. There are, believe it or not, some people who will base their decision on the few grains of truth they can glean from the often spurious arguments, not hyperbole.
With the sheer complexity of the possible outcomes of staying or leaving, plus the ease with which any supposed verifiable facts and figures can be recast and respun to suit, I would say it's best to decide based on gut instinct.
To me it seems very short term thinking [as we seem prone to being in the uk] to leave. For the long term stability both politically and militarily, I believe staying in the EU is the safer bet. I don't believe leaving the EU would be the disaster the worst of the stay campaign have suggested, but nor do I believe the EU will cut us a trade deal as easily as the brexit camp would like us to think, there will be some punishment even if it hurts the EU as well, I think anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.
Undoubtedly the EU is in need of many reforms, but I see staying in and collaboration as a civilising force and leaving as a pessimistic and destabilising one.
None of this can I back up with any facts and figures that won't be countered by someone with the opposite gut feeling, tis the nature of the beast, very much like the Scottish independence vote was.
 

Old 06-20-2016   #34
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Originally Posted by 13Promet View Post
I'm not sure about this.
A tax-free border would be mutual, and AFAIK UK is importing from Germany, France and Italy much more than it is exporting to them.
Therefore, it would be in main EU conuntries advantage to keep a tax-free goods exchange.
We can expect EU to folllow this route unless they really whish to punish UK.

Bottom line it would be, as we use to say, "to rip off your balls in order to punish your wife".
I don't see why the EU countries should allow a tax free treatment to a country that exited out of EU saying they are a corrupted organisation.

BTW, as Italian you should know that in case of Brexit your fellow citizens will need a VISA to work there and they will have no access to NHS and all the other privileges the EU citizens right now get in the UK.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Hicks View Post
Why do the Exit brigade call remain "project fear" when they are the ones making up frightening nonsense such as 350 million a week, pretending that Turkey is about to join the EU and export its entire population, etc.?

Cheers,

R.
The best "story" I heard here in the UK is that the EU gives money to European companies (namely British, because they don't care about other European companies) to outsource plants OUT of the EU. And they blindly believe that, like that the EU gives money to Ford to outsource the production in Turkey or to JLR to outsource to China.

They are also mysteriously convinced that the members of the European Parliament are not voted (so who nominates the British members in Brussels like Farage?) and there is no hope to try to explain they are wrong, they are completely brainwashed.
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Old 06-20-2016   #35
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Back to the main topic - the time to buy stuff from the UK in the event of BREXIT will be in the immediate aftermath of the vote because Sterling will tank but the UK will still be a member of the EU.
I agree. Question is, if the Pound tanks, how quickly will UK prices go up to compensate? Could be you'll have to buy very quickly to take advantage of the delay before adjustments kick in.

Raid: as for where to get the money... just add it to personal debt via CCs, line of credit, etc. Play now, pay later!
 

Old 06-20-2016   #36
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I'm always baffled when economists are blamed for the current state of affairs as most of the decisions seem, to me at least, to be made by politicians either with an axe to grind or favours to repay...

Regards, David
 

Old 06-20-2016   #37
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I agree. Question is, if the Pound tanks, how quickly will UK prices go up to compensate? Could be you'll have to buy very quickly to take advantage of the delay before adjustments kick in.

Raid: as for where to get the money... just add it to personal debt via CCs, line of credit, etc. Play now, pay later!
Still with customs all the advantages of buying in the UK for an European will evaporate quickly.

Last week I bought a lens from Russia, when it arrived here they charged me 20% of VAT (fair enough) plus 20 for HANDLING, so in the end they wanted to make me pay more money in customs than the actual value of the lens...I assume it will become more common for British and Europeans in case of Brexit.
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Old 06-20-2016   #38
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One of the likely outcomes of the UK staying in, is stronger integration of the UK within Europe, and common evolution into the future, wheather you like it or not.
One of the likely outcomes of the UK staying out, is stronger integraition of the UK within India, and common evolution into the future, possibly in conflict with China, EU, and the US, wheather you like it or not.
Feel free to choose.
 

Old 06-20-2016   #39
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It may be worth noting that these same economists and business leaders etc prophesised a similar level of doom at the prospect of the UK not joining the Euro. They were wrong (really very badly wrong) then so why should they be trusted now? There is very little merit in many of the economic claims being made by either side. If you believe differently then perhaps digging a little deeper into the facts might prove enlightening. Your assertion (however mild) that anyone who wants to leave the EU is anti European and the language you use to suggest this is well below the belt and in bad taste. There are, believe it or not, some people who will base their decision on the few grains of truth they can glean from the often spurious arguments, not hyperbole.
What on earth makes you think you have any more knowledge of the facts than I? I can only imagine it is because you disagree with me. I could equally well patronize you by telling you to "dig a little deeper into the facts".

Cheers,

R.
 

Old 06-20-2016   #40
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The plan is to leave the EU close the borders and reintroduce al the 7 ties
British cars.

Oooh yeah! Something sexy like the Morris Marina or Reliant Robin!
 
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