RF market post Fuji X100

[GSNfan]

Anyone willing to speculate what the RF market, film and digital, would be like after X100 is released? Do you fear a weakening of demand for RF cameras and a reduction in used market value for both film and digital RFs? This is in case Fuji X100 lives to its promise. I'd appreciate rational and pragmatic answers, thanks.

[Kolame]

I believe, analogue rangefinder won't die. There always be someone selling his or her M6 (and for most people this camera is at least "ok"), and film production is going well right now.
But for digital, the system of the X100 is where the digital rangefinder will go to. Of course, with interchangeable lenses.

[semilog]

Originally Posted by GSNfan

Anyone willing to speculate what the RF market, film and digital, would be like after X100 is released? Do you fear a weakening of demand for RF cameras and a reduction in used market value for both film and digital RFs?

No.


10 char

[back alley]

i doubt that the x100 would become the primary camera for many shooters, it more than likely might be the second body for many so maybe there will be a decrease in the m3/m2 buyer market.

[ZeissFan]

It's just a camera. Another camera on which people have placed extraordinarily high hopes. Might be great. Might be average.

Even if it's great, does it convince film users that it's finally time to ditch their extensive rangefinder systems and "go digital"? Or convince people to buy into a film rangefinder? I don't think so.

I think it's effect will be negligible.

[stompyq]

Hopefully it'll steer the market away from m4/3

[back alley]

Originally Posted by stompyq

Hopefully it'll steer the market away from m4/3

why do you hope for that?

[jsrockit]

This camera will have no effect on Leica old or new. We all know if one wants a Leica, nothing else replaces that feel (however silly that sounds). I still believe it is a niche camera... but a niche camera that could end up being my primary camera and will probably do very well. For me, it seems like all my favorite cameras rolled into one hybrid.

[bwcolor]

I believe that the sky will open and God will descend and she will reveal herself to be using the new camera.

What does the X100 have to do with the 'rangefinder market'? It isn't a rangefinder and the percentage of camera owners shooting real rangefinders is very close to zero.

[jsrockit]

Originally Posted by bwcolor

What does the X100 have to do with the 'rangefinder market'? It isn't a rangefinder and the percentage of camera owners shooting real rangefinders is very close to zero.

While it is not a rangefinder, it is the closest thing we have seen in digital to things like the Konica Hexar AF and the Contax G Series. Those are definitely cameras that rangefinder fans loved. It is the form factor and spirit that makes it similar.

[btgc]

Non-existant camera impacts RF market as much as global cataclysm in future may change weather and vegetation. It's still unclear.

[jmkelly]

At half the price it will have exactly twice the effect that the Leica X1 has.

[damien.murphy]

If I had an M8 I planned to sell, I might be concerned, but as the owner of a few film M's I can't see it changing anything for me. I'd like an X100, and may sell one of the M bodies I have to raise funds, but then I was planning to sell one of them anyway. I don't shoot enough 35mm to justify having a camera body lying idle all the time, and an X100 in the bag for colour shooting would nicely compliment a film M with B&W film loaded.

[Wiyum]

It seems to me that RF users (especially film RF users) are a rather diverse crowd that use rangefinders for a variety of reasons. You can see that in the way that this forum is divided on so many issues. Some love RFs for the small size and light weight. Some appreciate the manual controls. Some just love shooting film. Others like the build of the cameras, or the rangefinder focusing, and others are simply Leica junkies/snobs/aficionados. The x100 ticks many of the boxes that contribute to rangefinder appeal, so it is certainly likely that, if successful, it will steer some away from an RF that might have purchased one/contribute to some giving up on their RF. But it is neither a rangefinder-focusing camera nor is it a Leica, nor does it have interchangeable lenses, nor does it shoot film, so there are plenty of segments in the "RF user" group that won't be interested.

Meanwhile, I contend that most of the people that will buy an x100 *instead* of an RF would have been buying used anyway, so the effect on new product sales will be miniscule. The used markets may see some shifts, but nothing major.

I do expect the camera to be a big deal though, both among the community on this site and among hobbyists that may not have naturally found their way to RFs. I'm excited, both by the facts of the camera and by the way Fuji is treating it. I cannot remember a time when any company (even Leica) had this kind of enthusiastic and enthusiast-driven approach to marketing a camera. They know we're out here, and they want to sell us a camera. What more could you ask for?

[Sparrow]

Originally Posted by back alley

i doubt that the x100 would become the primary camera for many shooters, it more than likely might be the second body for many so maybe there will be a decrease in the m3/m2 buyer market.

I do hope so

... I may lie about my age with the geezer group thing, as I seem to have the proper attitude

[j j]

Originally Posted by jmkelly

At half the price it will have exactly twice the effect that the Leica X1 has.

I think you are underestimating; the X100 will have 100X the impact of the X1...

[bwcolor]

Originally Posted by jsrockit

While it is not a rangefinder, it is the closest thing we have seen in digital to things like the Konica Hexar AF and the Contax G Series. Those are definitely cameras that rangefinder fans loved. It is the form factor and spirit that makes it similar.

I agree that form factor is the same. I have a G2, so I understand that argument. I would suggest that those few that do use rangefinders will also continue to use rangefinders because the X100 is not a rangefinder. I have been waiting for a compact digital and unlike you, did not spring for the X1. If the X100 is not what I am expecting I will wait for the X2, Nikon, Canon, or maybe consider the GXR. That said, I own at least ten true rangefinder cameras and I will continue to use them. There really isn't much of a market for new rangefinders and perhaps that is the point of the post. Will manufacturers simply stop making rangefinders with the introduction of the X100? I'm amazed that they still make these cameras, so why not market very high price rangefinders after the X100? That said, I question the future of mechanical rangefinders. Certainly, electronics will and can replace such a mechanism, which is prone to misalignment and is relatively delicate.

Yes, the M10 will be a rangefinder.

[mackigator]

If the X100 shows itself to be a better tool than my film RF's I won't care what it does to the RF market. Right now I have no plans to buy one, but I'll listen carefully for feedback from those who do.

[Arjay]

Prices for used Konica Hexar AF's might go down - but we'll only know after the X100 has appeared on the market.

Apart from that, if the X100 is a huge success, other camera manufacturers might take the needs of RF camera users more seriously and come up with further offerings that combine a large sensor with traditional camera controls, hopefully also with interchangeable lenses. However, I think that is still some time away, as e.g. the X100 with its inside-the-lens shutter and its closely matched lens/sensor combination does not really look like a potential camera platform for interchangeable lenses.

This camera won't immediately affect the market for M style cameras because that specific user group is beyond ultra conservative. For them, the camera will have to have been a smash hit for some years before they will discover that technology really has an attactive offering for them.

[GSNfan]

To say Fuji x100 is just another camera would be a mistake. It looks like a M Leica has a fast 35mm lens, shoots up to ISO 6400 and its only ~$1000. X100 is fixed lens but since its an AF camera lens adopters would be no problem and I'm sure they will be cheap as well. Also with a step up ring, it would be easy to use lens adopters of other cameras. X100 does not come in black but those of us who obsess about such things could easily use black electric tape. As to its manual focus implementation and the quality of its OVF, those we have to wait and see.

Reading the tea leafs, i definitely see at first a surge in used RF cameras for sale. People would at lease try to unload some of their extra camera bodies to raise cash. As to the RF market in general, its quite obvious that X100 is not good news for companies and dealers alike. Anytime the dealers started asking less and less for used RF camera and lenses the market would adjust itself and there will be a general decrease in the prices of RF gear.

[Frankie]

Leica aficionados immediately didn't like it because it ain't no interchangeable lens M-Leica...despite many couldn't afford the M8/9, or more than one lens [while a RFF poll indicates 35mm FL being most popular].

RF junkies criticized it because it has no RF patch...AF+AFL notwithstanding.

Zone shooters denounced it because it has no lens barrel markings...despite a virtual focusing scale with DoF indicator available in the O/EVF or LCD. [Zone focusing is really just preset focal distances given an f-stop...the X100 firmware might yet have such a feature.]

Meanwhile, many believe an in-lens shutter precludes later interchangeable lens versions...forgeting Hasselblad was a professional choice for decades with the same "limitation".

Despite Fuji had indicated, and the Leica M8/9 experiences had confirmed a ~20% offset from optimum wouldn't hurt much, especially with better sensor and higher post-processing headroom...many still insist dRF requires new magic.

[I had immediately imagined the 3-stops built-in ND filters could be replaced with 3 anti-vignetting patterns instead...]

I believe the X100 will spawn new-think and renewed defiance of the Thought Police. And that, I believe is what a post Fuji X100 market might evolve into...the product price will guarantee that.

[migtex]

I go with Frankie!
It will open an "old" new niche that others will HAVE TO follow. (1000/€/$ Camera is market no "one" can not overlook).

I'm saving already!
And no, I don't indent to get rid of my film RF's!

[Wiyum]

Originally Posted by Frankie

[I had immediately imagined the 3-stops built-in ND filters could be replaced with 3 anti-vignetting patterns instead...]

I believe the camera has a single 3-stop filter, essentially an ND 0.9 filter, so were your dream to come to pass, you'd need to pick a single pattern. Though it is likely that the filter is small, and at a point in the optical path where it couldn't feasibly correct vignetting.

[Brian Levy]

I think it might be the camera to finally convert me IF it is as good as hoped. Not having a zoom or interchangeable lenses is no big deal for me as I tend to use a 40mm aobut 90% of the time in 35mm format. 35mm I do not care for quite as much but it would be only a little time before I could adjust and happily lve with it. As to the market impact, I'm not sure it will have much effect on the mass produced product nor the 95+% of the population that buys it.

[Jamie Pillers]

IF the x100 provides modern aps-c type image quality, and the viewfinder lives up to the hype, and the price isn't ridiculous, then this camera or some version of it WILL be my full-time primary street photography camera. I've been waiting sooooo long for something digital to come along to replace the Hexar AF I sold many years ago. And here it is.. I hope. If this isn't it... "it" is not far away... as I predicted when I joined up here :-)

As a street photography camera, the x100 could be dynamite! Changing ISO and white balance on the fly while moving in and out of wildly ranging light conditions in Oakland and San Francisco practically requires one to carry multiple cameras loaded with multiple kinds of film. Tired of that.

35mm fixed focal length? Perfect. No 'thinking about some other lens I'd like to have today' stuff. Just go out and make pictures.

I'm just praying that a BIG demand for this camera materializes. Then we might see some competition in this niche. YES!