New Mirrorless Market Share "surprises" on the way..

[BobYIL]

This chart shows the interchangeable lens camera sales in the last quarter of 2011, from CIPA. The dark blue ones are the mirrorless and the light blue for the DSLRs.

According to CIPA the mirrorless interchangeable camera sales is expected to reach 5 million units this year, more than two times for the year 2010; a rapid growing market (actually the fastest growing branch in photographic industry.)

The trend in Japan has always been decisive for the rest of the countries, at least for being a reliable indicator for "what's going to happen two years from now". This trend is indicative for what's being cooked now.. Probably in two years we will observe the 50% share of the mirrorless all over the world.

I think we are going to see some very interesting cameras in the oncoming Photokina in September, especially some models to interest us rangefinder users. I will not be surprised if Canon and Nikon had decided to "break their silence" to get their share in this 50% market to reach some 5 million cameras this year.

FYI, 5 million was the total sales of interchangeable lens digital cameras in 1999..

[Keith]

With figures like that obviously Canikon aren't going to be sitting on their hands for too much longer!

Bring it on!

[Jockos]

Nikon already released the V1, so it's only Canon left standing at the side line

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Jockos

Nikon already released the V1, so it's only Canon left standing at the side line

The V1's a toy IMO ... they'll need to do better than that!

I was asking the salesman at the shop where I got my OMD how the Nikon V1 was selling and he said it was slow!

I mentioned I thought it seemed like a handbag camera and he smiled and nodded.

[clayne]

I'm using cameras made in the 1960s and 70s and having zero problems achieving high quality results from them. It's not the gear.

[Lss]

Originally Posted by Keith

The V1's a toy IMO ... they'll need to do better than that!

I was asking the salesman at the shop where I got my OMD how the Nikon V1 was selling and he said it was slow!

Nikon 1 probably makes up a pretty significant part of the Japanese mirrorless sales, though. This is purely based on observing the cameras Japanese tourists carry. Japanese women seem to really like the Nikon J1, while the men are more in the traditional DSLR/bigger-sensor-mirrorless camp. Year or two and US/Europe should catch up.

[jsrockit]

Originally Posted by clayne

I'm using cameras made in the 1960s and 70s and having zero problems achieving high quality results from them. It's not the gear.

Who said it was?

[BobYIL]

Originally Posted by clayne

I'm using cameras made in the 1960s and 70s and having zero problems achieving high quality results from them. It's not the gear.

Bear in mind most of those cameras will survive another 40-50 years by delivering quality results, maybe thru some CLA.... however I wonder what will happen with our digitals.

(I'm serious, the services keep spares for them longest 10 years, voice of experience after writing off 150 professional recorders due to not available spares from a most prominent factory: Panasonic.)

[rxmd]

Originally Posted by BobYIL

Bear in mind most of those cameras will survive another 40-50 years by delivering quality results, maybe thru some CLA.... however I wonder what will happen with our digitals.

(I'm serious, the services keep spares for them longest 10 years, voice of experience after writing off 150 professional recorders due to not available spares from a most prominent factory: Panasonic.)

A "film vs. digital" or "1960s cameras vs. new cameras" argument isn't exactly original around here.

The spare parts argument is getting tired. The problem is hardly limited to electronic gear, low-end gear, Japanese gear, or digital gear for that matter. Ask Leica about how they expect to replenish their supply of mechanical R6 shutter assemblies, for example.

[BobYIL]

Originally Posted by rxmd

A "film vs. digital" or "1960s cameras vs. new cameras" argument isn't exactly original around here.

The spare parts argument is getting tired. The problem is hardly limited to electronic gear, low-end gear, Japanese gear, or digital gear for that matter. Ask Leica about how they expect to replenish their supply of mechanical R6 shutter assemblies, for example.

The majority of the mechanical cameras are serviceable today. For such cameras one does not need factory authorized services and their service is not dependent on exclusively the parts supplied by the manufacturer. For example, any M body can be repaired –possibly- by over 30 technicians/services located in USA and Europe and I know that a large portion of them are not factory trained persons.. The same is true for the mechanical Nikons, Canons too.

Such services can replace the worn or broken parts easily, either with few NOS parts remained from the Jurassic era or most frequently salvaged from bodies dismantled to be used for spares. No M-Leica in their hands goes to trash no matter if it fell from the 8th floor down, they find many parts to reuse.

Such service and parts are generally for bodies sold in large quantities or those sold not much but sharing parts with the more popular ones.

The worst thing with digital: Service & Parts replacement require also sophisticated test/measuring devices. FYI, Nikon stopped sales of any digital parts to any service other than their own Authorized Service Stations. They use ONLY the parts supplied by the manufacturer. (BTW, did you see the desk and equipment of our beloved Youxin Ye for example? I can dismantle and put back my M-Leicas on a surface of two sq.ft with tools to not fill even a shoe box.)

As for the R6: Not a popular model but I am sure either in the States or in EU, especially in Germany there should be one or two technicians who can service it too.. Also there is no such rule that each and every camera will live on..

[Aristophanes]

Originally Posted by Keith

The V1's a toy IMO ... they'll need to do better than that!

I was asking the salesman at the shop where I got my OMD how the Nikon V1 was selling and he said it was slow!

I mentioned I thought it seemed like a handbag camera and he smiled and nodded.

It's a price issue.

They are simply too expensive.

To tease sales from DSLR champs looking for a 2nd ILC camera, you need to price it like an accessory camera, not your "main" or "serious" camera.

So it has to be cheaper than a 5100 and a GF series. It is not, so it is not selling well.

The premium compact market for digital is not the same as it was for film. Film itself levelled the playing field, so the competition could be on size vs. features. That dynamic doesn't work on digital so premium priced compacts even with ILC's have trouble charging a "small tax".

[btgc]

Japanese simply are smart. When I see Japanese tourists going through city, all the day, by all nice buildings and monuments, it's clear it takes to be extremely trained to lug DSLR kit around. Mirrorless take same pictures for less money and with less stress on skeleton.

[Jockos]

Originally Posted by Keith

The V1's a toy IMO ... they'll need to do better than that!

I was asking the salesman at the shop where I got my OMD how the Nikon V1 was selling and he said it was slow!

I mentioned I thought it seemed like a handbag camera and he smiled and nodded.

Wait wait, V1 is a toy but OMD with M43 sensor is not?

[emraphoto]

Originally Posted by Jockos

Wait wait, V1 is a toy but OMD with M43 sensor is not?

i toyed around with the V1... kind of liked it actually. a fast prime in my preferred focal length would have sealed the deal for me.

[Peter^]

I believe that in ten years DSLRs will be fully replaced by mirrorless systems. With the advances in EVFs, DSLRs have no advantage. The advantages of mirrorless, however, are well-known to rangefinder user's.
Before digital, there was no technical way to bridge the gap between SLRs and RFs. Mirrorless systems do exactly that.

[tomtofa]

Originally Posted by emraphoto

i toyed around with the V1... kind of liked it actually. a fast prime in my preferred focal length would have sealed the deal for me.

Yes, I think that if Nikon comes out with faster lenses for the V1, it will take off - great viewfinder, very fast focus, many handy features.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Jockos

Wait wait, V1 is a toy but OMD with M43 sensor is not?

I suppose if your talking full frame they are both toys in comparison. The asthetics of the Nikon is what makes it that way for me ... not it's performance!

[Ronald_H]

What makes the Nikon 1 a toy is two things:

- UI based on the idea that it is for compact camera upgraders. In that sense the OM-D is a real camera.

- Crop factor that makes using legacy glass all but pointless, makes DOF control much harder and brings a disadvantage in image quality compared to m4/3rds and APS-C

That's why I have a NEX and why I strongly dissuade young women to buy a Nikon 1, no matter how 'cute' it may be.

[pdexposures]

Interesting, I knew the market was growing but I had no idea by how much!

[CK Dexter Haven]

Originally Posted by clayne

I'm using cameras made in the 1960s and 70s and having zero problems achieving high quality results from them. It's not the gear.

I presume those 'old' cameras are full-frame (35mm) or larger.... You should expect different results with small sensors. Whether or not you can get 'sharp' pictures from the small sensor digitals is one thing. Getting the specific kinds of results you want from them is another matter.

This is like telling the 8x10 shooter you get 'high quality results' from your Leica. So what.

[back alley]

this thread is indicative of rff of late...everyone is trying to prove they have the biggest d..k..we gotta stop this fast or this place is going to hit dirt quick.

[semilog]

Originally Posted by Peter^

I believe that in ten years DSLRs will be fully replaced by mirrorless systems.

Six years. Within three years DSLRs will be an "old people" thing, if they aren't already. The D5 will be the last Nikon pro DSLR with a pentaprism.

[kuzano]

Originally Posted by Ronald_H

why I strongly dissuade young women to buy a Nikon 1, no matter how 'cute' it may be.

Most men, shorty after puberty, or late teens have learned that trying to dissuade or persuade a woman to anything is a true waste of time. Spend that time more productively. Do something to benefit humanity. Convincing women to do or not do anything is counter productive in the most negative sense of the words.

[MaxElmar]

I don't really care what the fashion is, or who has the fastest growing market share. That's all BS. Make a better camera. I'll buy it.

We have a lot of really nice mirrorless cameras available now -- too bad none of 'em can track focus in 3 dimensions for beans.... Oh, except for that little Nikon of which you like to make fun. Still waiting for the good stuff.

[BobYIL]

Originally Posted by MaxElmar

.....We have a lot of really nice mirrorless cameras available now -- too bad none of 'em can track focus in 3 dimensions for beans....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipfO_JE8EB4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlnzP...eature=related