If an M10 comes out...
Old 09-29-2011   #1
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If an M10 comes out...

...do you think s/h M9 prices will plummet like M8 prices did, or will they hold up because it's full frame?

I don't *want* an M9 - I'm happy with film - but I can see colour film and processing disappearing in the next decade (b/w film will probably go on for ever, since there has been no mass market for it since 1970 and most processing is done at home). There is, however, no way I can afford five grand for an M9 body although I could afford five hundred for an M3 or M2.

If pushed, I'd rather get an M9 and carry on with my existing lenses than dump it all for a Nikon D700 which isn't designed for MF, is an SLR, is far too big and is filled with zillions of exposure modes I don't want.
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Old 09-29-2011   #2
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If I had $5000 laying around I would be looking for a good deal on an IMACON 848 or 949....
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Old 09-29-2011   #3
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Leica items tend to command a premium, no matter how old. I'd expect they'll plummet, but not too low.

I see the m8 around $1000, m8.2 $2k and the m9 around 3-4500 in about 2-4 years. Keep your M-lenses. They'll go up in value as more and more people jump on the M-wagon.
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Old 09-29-2011   #4
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I got an X100 on loan last night and am already thinking of returning it. I've been without auto focus camera and a digital camera for almost a year now, and to be honest was surprised how let down I was last night after fiddling with the X100 for about an hour or two. I realised that the only way for a digital for me is to save up and get an M8 or few years down the line M9, or get some medium format back and a hassy or something like that.

I shoot both colour and B&W on film, but I have to admit that white balance can be a right PITA with colour and home development. I'd much rather deal with digital WB issues. So what I think will happen in my case is that I'll get an M8 for digital at some point, but continue to shoot B&W on my film gear.
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Old 09-30-2011   #5
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Leica items tend to command a premium, no matter how old. I'd expect they'll plummet, but not too low.

I see the m8 around $1000, m8.2 $2k and the m9 around 3-4500 in about 2-4 years. Keep your M-lenses. They'll go up in value as more and more people jump on the M-wagon.
Wishful thinking. 1000$ will just get you a Digilux2.

The M8 will keep hanging around 2000$ and the M8.2 about 2750$, the M9 is anybody's guess, but don't expect miracles below the 4500 $ mark.
The M10 will probably a wholly different camera with a CMos which will put a premium on the prices of the CCD-sensored Ms which many will find preferable.
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Old 09-30-2011   #6
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If I had $5000 laying around I would be looking for a good deal on an IMACON 848 or 949....
Imacon is not my favorite company. Their long-term customer support is highly questionable. Just look at the way they sabotaged the DMR because of a corporate squabble....
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Old 09-30-2011   #7
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Home development has nothing to do with bad color unless your work habits are sloppy. I never had a problem until Unicolor changed their kit to make real contrasty negs. I changed to a German product, forget the name, or used Kodak chems without issue.

I ruined a whole bunch of vacation pics and a few other rolls before I called Unicolor and they said they new and improved it. You would think they would have said so on the package.

Got to admit though, a digi file straight from the camera is the cat`s meow. I can recommend a Nikon D7000 or D5100 as budget digi cams that make really nice files. Get a full frame model and the new 1.4 G lenses for near perfection. These models are big and heavy and noisy and not Leica like at all.

When Kodak goes under soon, I have no idea where color film will come from. Fuji quit their 160s which was their pro film. All the rest is amateur garbage.
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Old 09-30-2011   #8
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I find Reala to be perfectly good. Not sure about the others.
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Old 09-30-2011   #9
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I don't *want* an M9 - I'm happy with film - but I can see colour film and processing disappearing in the next decade
It seems completely pointless to me to fret about this sort of thing now. It's not like colour film will disappear next week.

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Why don't you just wait until whenever that happens if at all, and then get whatever digital rangefinder you can afford then?
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Old 09-30-2011   #10
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...do you think s/h M9 prices will plummet like M8 prices did, or will they hold up because it's full frame?
I think it really depends on what the M10 is. If it is an entirely new camera and doesn't look like a classic M, then the M9 has a chance of holding some value. Also, the M10 may cost $10,000, so a $5,000 M9 might not seem so bad. However, if the M10 comes out and has great high ISO and keeps the familiar form factor and sells for $7,000... the M9 will go way down.
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$10,000 M10?
Old 09-30-2011   #11
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$10,000 M10?

At 10K for an M10 with a new sensor and probably EVF technology, a full frame mirrorless camera similar to the NEX 7 makes more sense at a substantially lower price. Full frame is coming to the mirrorless cameras and I can see for $2,500 a full frame camera that will take M lenses and have superior high ISO. Leica , as far as digital, will be more seen by many as a great lens maker. Buying a similar camera for 10K because it has a red dot ranks high with the photo jewelry crowd, but for shooters, there is another more economically sound story!
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Old 09-30-2011   #12
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$7k was a stretch for the M9. If the M10 is released at $10k I'm done with Leicas. I love them. But I can adjust to autofocus real fast at that price.

And before they even think about an M10 they need to get those lenses out the door and be more than just unicorns you read about in Steve Huff's blog.
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Old 09-30-2011   #13
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If I had $5000 laying around I would be looking for a good deal on an IMACON 848 or 949....
A good excuse to find a local community college that has a photo program... several schools have Imacon Flextights in the back of their photo labs, $300 for a semester long class and you can sneak back to the scanner whenever the photo lab is open and scan for free

Quite sad, actually... my college has the Imacon scanner, but it hasn't been used in probably 4+ years. Everyone uses the Epson flatbeds. We have Nikon 5000's and 9000ED's and those don't get used either (except by me when I'm making web previews of my film)
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Old 09-30-2011   #14
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with the present state of kodak, is there any uncertainty as to what the imaging sensor in a possible M10 will be, and who will manufacture it?
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Old 09-30-2011   #15
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with the present state of kodak, is there any uncertainty as to what the imaging sensor in a possible M10 will be, and who will manufacture it?
The only other company I know of that manufactures and sells sensors is Sony because the earlier Nikons had Sony sensors. I'm not sure where Panasonic gets theirs from. But if they make their own it could be a source since Leica already has a relationship with them.
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Old 09-30-2011   #16
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Wishful thinking. 1000$ will just get you a Digilux2.

The M8 will keep hanging around 2000$ and the M8.2 about 2750$, the M9 is anybody's guess, but don't expect miracles below the 4500 $ mark.
The M10 will probably a wholly different camera with a CMos which will put a premium on the prices of the CCD-sensored Ms which many will find preferable.
I wouldn't call that wishful thinking. Eventually the M8 will drop to $1,000 and less. That's just the way technology works - regardless of who makes it. Now, how long that's going to take may be up for debate.
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Old 09-30-2011   #17
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with the present state of kodak, is there any uncertainty as to what the imaging sensor in a possible M10 will be, and who will manufacture it?

I suspect therre is a fair degree of certainty about who will not manufacture it and a great deal of uncertainty about who will.


I discussed a digital Ikon with the Zeiss factory a few months ago and they said the issue was finding a sensor partner who could/would supply a suitably high quality sensor. The expectation for image quality (hate the term, but appropriate here) is very high and the partnership needs to work and be finanically viable. Leica may have more motivation to make it work, as they don't have an alternative to cameras, but there will be real difficulties to overcome. If dropping a Sony/Nikon or Canon full frame sensor into a drf body was easy someone would be building the M9 killer.
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Old 09-30-2011   #18
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Eventually everything other than collectibles goes to zero... so there is no point in talking in terms of value over a long term. Sure M8 will eventually go down to $1000, and so will M9.

How fast the price drops is completely related to the value of M10. If starting price is out of reach and/or unreasonable for the majority of consumers, M9 may still hold value. That is unless there is a significant imrprovement in the technology. I personally don't consider EVF as part of one. I also don't consider XMP LCD screen to be in this category as well.

Unless M10 can somehow handle ultra high ISO's comparable to DSLR's with CCD sensors, I'm happy with an M9.
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Old 09-30-2011   #19
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Leica is too business savvy to let their products devalue quickly.
Sure the M2/M3s are going for $600-700, but they were may 50 years ago.
Even the Digilux 1 is worth a couple hundred bucks and its like a 1 MP camera! Digilux 2s are also becoming collectibles, and a couple years ago Leica replaced the sensors for FREE, to keep the customer base s/w happy.
The X1, at a slow f2.8, and out-camera'ed by the competition has its used market price still hovering around $1500+.

I think we are addressing the used PRICE of Leica bodies, vs the used VALUE of Leica bodies. In other words, the M8 will hold its own around $2000 for the foreseeable future. THen when the value starts to drop (but NEVER plummet), then Leica will throw in some incentive for M8 owners to keep the value of the camera from plummeting, and thus keep the Leica name from plummeting. They will do the same with the M9 as years pass, and so on and so forth. Leica has mastered how to control the value/price of their product based on simple supply/demand theoretics, and keeping the products up and running.
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Old 09-30-2011   #20
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Eventually everything other than collectibles goes to zero... so there is no point in talking in terms of value over a long term. Sure M8 will eventually go down to $1000, and so will M9.

How fast the price drops is completely related to the value of M10. If starting price is out of reach and/or unreasonable for the majority of consumers, M9 may still hold value. That is unless there is a significant imrprovement in the technology. I personally don't consider EVF as part of one. I also don't consider XMP LCD screen to be in this category as well.

Unless M10 can somehow handle ultra high ISO's comparable to DSLR's with CCD sensors, I'm happy with an M9.

Consider: a stick-on EVF (call it a Visoflex IV ) would open up the possibility to use R lenses and it would provide the ultimate R solution - and a system crossover for those who still shoot R on the DMR.
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Old 09-30-2011   #21
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Consider: a stick-on EVF (call it a Visoflex IV ) would open up the possibility to use R lenses and it would provide the ultimate R solution - and a system crossover for those who still shoot R on the DMR.
I think this is called NEX, m43 or EOS 5D.
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Old 09-30-2011   #22
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So wait for an M10... M11... M12..

Or decide that you'd rather shoot digi NOW. Or that you'd rather stick with film.

If you don't want an M9, why do you care what will happen when the M10 appears? Choose either the real world, or the fantasy world. Stop worrying about counterfactual conditionals.

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Old 09-30-2011   #23
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Ah. But will they skip the M13 over superstition? so many things for us to worry about in our daily lives.

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So wait for an M10... M11... M12..

Or decide that you'd rather shoot digi NOW. Or that you'd rather stick with film.

If you don't want an M9, why do you care what will happen when the M10 appears? Choose either the real world, or the fantasy world. Stop worrying about counterfactual conditionals.

Cheers,

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Old 09-30-2011   #24
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At 10K for an M10 with a new sensor and probably EVF technology, a full frame mirrorless camera similar to the NEX 7 makes more sense at a substantially lower price. Full frame is coming to the mirrorless cameras and I can see for $2,500 a full frame camera that will take M lenses and have superior high ISO. Leica , as far as digital, will be more seen by many as a great lens maker. Buying a similar camera for 10K because it has a red dot ranks high with the photo jewelry crowd, but for shooters, there is another more economically sound story!
Except these mirrorless cameras still struggle with wider lenses and really arent built with non-native lenses in mind. Maybe they'll get better in the future but as of right now mounting M lenses on a Nex (or whatever) still is a compromise to me. And I'm not sure I have faith in Sony (or whomever else) to spend millions on R&D to ensure that a tiny fraction of their user base can mount their arcane lenses without bad corners and color shift when they are trying to hawk their own lenses.
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Old 09-30-2011   #25
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...If you don't want an M9, why do you care what will happen when the M10 appears?...
Not sure for others, but i don't want a €5.5/6K M9 and i do care what the M10 will be for sure. Why would i spend the big bucks for an interim camera with color shift issues and so-so results at high isos to be kind? The price of the M8.2 was €5K at the time of the M9 launch. The same is selling for more or less €2.5K on the s/h market as of now. I got mine in as-new condition for €2.2K and i don't expect to pay more than €3K for a s/h M9 if i don't acquire an M10 in the near future.
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Old 10-01-2011   #26
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So wait for an M10... M11... M12..

Or decide that you'd rather shoot digi NOW. Or that you'd rather stick with film.

If you don't want an M9, why do you care what will happen when the M10 appears?
If you go back to my OP, my concern is that I'll be forced into digital should colour film and processing become unavailable.
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Old 10-01-2011   #27
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If you go back to my OP, my concern is that I'll be forced into digital should colour film and processing become unavailable.
Well, have they recently become unavailable where you live? Or is there any other reason why you bother about M9s and M10s now, as opposed to whatever M is on the market whenever that happens (if at all)? Is anyone forcing you to ditch film right now?

It seems that you're really worried about nothing at this point.
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Old 10-01-2011   #28
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And I'm not sure I have faith in Sony (or whomever else) to spend millions on R&D to ensure that a tiny fraction of their user base can mount their arcane lenses without bad corners and color shift when they are trying to hawk their own lenses.
Yes, exactly. But the NEX appears to be a good 50mm equiv solution.
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Nex 50mm solution
Old 10-01-2011   #29
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Nex 50mm solution

Yes, this is a good point where the NEX is a good camera for 50mm . In fact, with moving subjects, the focus peaking should work well with my Noctilux. By the way, from what I have seen on this forum , wide lenses do work well on the NEX 5n.
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Old 10-01-2011   #30
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Wishful thinking. 1000$ will just get you a Digilux2.

The M8 will keep hanging around 2000$ and the M8.2 about 2750$, the M9 is anybody's guess, but don't expect miracles below the 4500 $ mark.
+1 When (if) the M10 comes along the M8, M8.2, and M9 will still be worth something.

I don't buy cameras as investments. There will always be a "new and improved" camera coming out.
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Old 10-01-2011   #31
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If you go back to my OP, my concern is that I'll be forced into digital should colour film and processing become unavailable.
For me, that falls into the category of "I'll worry about it when it happens".

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Old 10-01-2011   #32
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I think this is called NEX, m43 or EOS 5D.
No it is not. It would be called an M10 and use the Leicina adapter which I already use on my M9 for the Fisheye Elmarit R. The Eos is an SLR, the Nex is a point and shoot with an APS sensor and An M 4/3 is a panasonic with a 2x crop...
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Old 10-01-2011   #33
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No it is not. [...] The Eos is an SLR
I can see where you're coming from with the NEX and M4/3 cameras, but complaining that the replacement for an SLR should be an SLR seems, well, odd.
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Old 10-01-2011   #34
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Ah- well, I shoot the M9 side by side with the DMR in situations where I need backup for both systems. The M9 I can back up with a few R lenses, or a short zoom, but the DMR needs Visoflex and lesser long lens as backup. It would be very nice if I had full cross-system compatability preferably through an auxillary EVF.
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Old 10-02-2011   #35
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...do you think s/h M9 prices will plummet like M8 prices did, or will they hold up because it's full frame?
They will hold - the M8 actually is commanding a very strong pre-owned price considering the age and the crop sensor and other "discouraging" factors. Despite that, I still love an M8 with all it's flaws. I'm using an M9, but I will not have any hesitation to use an M8.

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I don't *want* an M9 - I'm happy with film - but I can see colour film and processing disappearing in the next decade (b/w film will probably go on for ever, since there has been no mass market for it since 1970 and most processing is done at home). There is, however, no way I can afford five grand for an M9 body although I could afford five hundred for an M3 or M2.
I don't think film will be gone in the next decade. Despite that the market is getting smaller, but I wouldn't render it completely obsolete. There is a different feel to film pictures, and no matter how digital tries to replicate it, it's just different. There will always be a market for film.

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If pushed, I'd rather get an M9 and carry on with my existing lenses than dump it all for a Nikon D700 which isn't designed for MF, is an SLR, is far too big and is filled with zillions of exposure modes I don't want.
[/quote]

Well, I agree with you up to a point - but if you intend on shooting sports and such other fast moving things it would be EASIER on the D700 - I'm not saying it's impossible on the M9 per say - but it's easier on the Nikon. While I myself don't have any dSLRs anymore, I find it rarely but occassionaly, I wish I have one just to make my life easier.
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Old 01-26-2012   #36
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Wishful thinking. 1000$ will just get you a Digilux2.

The M8 will keep hanging around 2000$ and the M8.2 about 2750$, the M9 is anybody's guess, but don't expect miracles below the 4500 $ mark.
The M10 will probably a wholly different camera with a CMos which will put a premium on the prices of the CCD-sensored Ms which many will find preferable.
as a contrary note, I wonder if the CCD will actually put people off, and thus depress prices, as there will be concerns about spares kept by Leica
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Old 01-26-2012   #37
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No it is not. It would be called an M10 and use the Leicina adapter which I already use on my M9 for the Fisheye Elmarit R. The Eos is an SLR, the Nex is a point and shoot with an APS sensor and An M 4/3 is a panasonic with a 2x crop...
the Nex-7 is much more then a P&S
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Old 01-26-2012   #38
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Originally Posted by jaapv View Post
Imacon is not my favorite company. Their long-term customer support is highly questionable. Just look at the way they sabotaged the DMR because of a corporate squabble....

Agree with Jaap. I worked for agency with 2 Imacons. They were constantly breaking down. They couldn't handle the workload. Their repair service was less then professional. The straw that broke the camel's back, was when service was on site, and were asking people for chewing gum to repair a scanner.
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Old 01-26-2012   #39
ramosa
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Originally Posted by jsrockit View Post
I think it really depends on what the M10 is. If it is an entirely new camera and doesn't look like a classic M, then the M9 has a chance of holding some value. Also, the M10 may cost $10,000, so a $5,000 M9 might not seem so bad. However, if the M10 comes out and has great high ISO and keeps the familiar form factor and sells for $7,000... the M9 will go way down.
Well said.
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Old 01-26-2012   #40
boomguy57
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The M9 is surely a very nice camera, but it's not a great camera from things I've read and real people I've talked to who own one (I've never actually handled one on my own). For a camera body that costs THAT much, it has to be perfect. For that reason, even if I had the money I wouldn't get one. The Leica fetishization is just crazy.

It's a shame that the RD-1 was Epson's last entry into the digital rangefinder market; that camera is getting on in years now and although it's stil functional, a few updates would really be nice at this point.

I'm hoping that the Fuji X-Pro1 (or X-Pro2 or X-Pro3) is good enough to challenge in this market. I think if the X-Pro1 is a hit, maybe Fuji will take a gamble on the full frame model and drive the Leica prices down. With no competition, and people drooling over their products, Leica can charge whatever they like.

In my dreams, I shoot with an M9; in my dreams, I also live in the Playboy mansion, drive Sean Connery's 1964 Aston Martin, and own a private jet.

In the real world, I shoot my M3 (with the same glass I'd have on my M9), tut around town in my Toyota, and fly in steerage...er, economy class.

Ciao.
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