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Nikon Historical Society -- hosted by the founding member Bob Rotoloni and members of the society. The NHS, based the US, has a worldwide membership. Our "Nikon Journal," published four times a year, concentrates on the history of Japanese photo equipment from the perspective of the Nikon Camera Company. The Nikon Journal often includes Nikon information not published anywhere else in the world. This forum provides an opportunity for conversation between collectors and users of classic film Nikons. See forum “stickies” for more information about the Society. If you are a serious Nikon Collector, you MUST be a NHS member. Join at http://www.nikonhistoricalsociety.com/!

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Old 02-13-2017   #41
BillBingham2
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.....Wonder why Sony's A6300 replacement/update - the A6500 - is almost 50% more expensive than its replacement? Cuz there is no money left in making 'cheap' cameras......
They will be pricing themselves out of the market if they keep this up.

Finding the balance between ever increasing profits, not leaving cash on the table, and selling your new product is hard. Share holders only care about increasing profits....

B2 (;->
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Old 02-13-2017   #42
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Old 02-13-2017   #43
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They will be pricing themselves out of the market if they keep this up.
We'll see where a smaller market settles - prices must go up as cameras are made in ever smaller numbers. Some makers will doubtlessly stumble over the price-finding - at least if there are others that can afford to keep the prices low for long enough to push the competition out. Sony has issues of its own, but it is less dependent on photography than most other makers...
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Old 02-13-2017   #44
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That they are in trouble is sad, but not surprising.

I have bought three brand-new Nikons in my time:

1982 - Nikon FE
1998 (I think) - Nikon F80
2005 (approx) - Nikon D70

They had me as a loyal customer up to then, I liked the D70 and still have it, but when it came to buying the next camera I was back into film and into rangefinders. I have a Sony A7ii that fills my need for a dSLR type camera. I still use the same FE, but none of the later digital Nikons appealed. I was a prime potential customer for the Df but that never appealed enough to buy one.
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Old 02-13-2017   #45
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Whenever I walk into any kind of tourist area and look at what people are carrying, phones aside it's all prosumer SLRs, nearly always Nikon or Canon. Generally there's not a Fuji or Olympus mirrorless in sight because brand recognition is so important in this market. If Nikon simply concentrated on the prosumer and pro I think they'd do OK, although at some point they need to come up with is a mirrorless that can take F mount lenses. Everything else they do photography-wise should be dumped.
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Old 02-13-2017   #46
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I feel the Coolpix A was the pivotal event. Had Nikon priced it right to begin with (it started it $1200 I think - with no viewfinder!) , it would have sold very well. They should have sold them at cost to get attract buyers moving from DSLR's to mirrorless.
I'm am one of their lost long-time customers. Got tired of waiting for them to take the mirrorless market seriously.
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Old 02-13-2017   #47
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I'm wondering if Nikon would ever consider remaking their S2/S3/SP rangefinder cameras in digital, seeing how popular rangefinder styled cameras are these days. It can be a true rangefinder camera or a mirrorless like X-pro or X100. That might reverse their fortunes.
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Old 02-13-2017   #48
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Leica is doing ok because they are high end, and have always been.
Remember circa 2005 when Leica was on its' own death march. The deals were amazing. Brand new 35-50-90 lenses at dealer cost from a store dropping the brand, because nothing sold. Another store, same song, but a new MP at dealer cost. All the long time Leica guys on the forums lamenting a gnashing teeth -- but look were the company is today. Hope Nikon can find their footing too.
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Old 02-13-2017   #49
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The camera in the new cell phones are as good or better than the point and shoots. And, since everyone is carrying a cell phone why buy a camera. Maybe, the future will be upper end professional cameras and cell phones?
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Old 02-13-2017   #50
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I loved my F3HP, FM10 (tho made by Cosina), FM3a and D40 back in the days. I moved away from the brand as I switched to RF and mirrorless years ago, but I always preferred Nikon over Canon for whatever reason.

I hope they'll make a come-back as a leaner, more focused photographic tool manufacturer.

If they are to go under (shouldn't jinx it but...) I hope they'll release a commemorative Nikon RF and Nikon F before the end...
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Old 02-13-2017   #51
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I don't get how people are saying Nikon messed up by not embracing mirrorless digital photography. That market is sucking seaweed too.
Lots of players in a smallish market. Had Nikon (or Canon) gone in heavily at the start several of the players probably wouldn't have gotten a foot in the door. Nikon/Canon wouldn't have lost customers to other brands. I've bought Nikon's since the 80s. Now I shoot Fuji.

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Old 02-13-2017   #52
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If they are to go under (shouldn't jinx it but...) I hope they'll release a commemorative Nikon RF and Nikon F before the end...
They've already done that twice with the RF.
Commemorative F? Hmmmmmm...
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Nikon Should get out
Old 02-13-2017   #53
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Nikon Should get out

Interesting story. Here's the fundamental, unavoidable, irreversible facts:

1. The number of people that appreciate the performance of a high quality DSLR or mirrorless is declining and doing so rapidly.

2. The number of people that want one device to text, email, post to social media and keep them connected and make wonderful selfies and food pics to show their friends is growing at an exponential rate.

3. The population of #2 is not well suited to the rigors of detailed, thorough problem-solving skills need to compete successfully in modern manufacturing. Problem solving, data analysis, fact-finding and critical thought are ideas from another universe to them.

4. It's too late to enter the smartphone business, mirrorless business or any format of camera business of any kind in the digital realm.

Therefore:

Given #3 & #4, Nikon should dump the camera division ASAP as it is still profitable and move to building the automatic measuring systems business, since the population of #2 will not be able to provide the skills to keep their ever-increasing demand for instant social approval gratification technology satisfied for their astronomically growing masses. Nikon has a good marketing force for the industrial imaging division and adding this kind of product to its mix will give them a "full cart" to sell from.

This manufacturing should not take place in the United States.
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Old 02-13-2017   #54
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I'm wondering if Nikon would ever consider remaking their S2/S3/SP rangefinder cameras in digital, seeing how popular rangefinder styled cameras are these days. It can be a true rangefinder camera or a mirrorless like X-pro or X100. That might reverse their fortunes.
Exactly, put effort into capitalizing on the historic weight of the brand and ride the nostalgia train. Boy, would I love one of these were they to ever come to market.
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Old 02-13-2017   #55
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Therefore:

Given #3 & #4, Nikon should dump the camera division ASAP as it is still profitable and move to building the automatic measuring systems business, since the population of #2 will not be able to provide the skills to keep their ever-increasing demand for instant social approval gratification technology satisfied for their astronomically growing masses. Nikon has a good marketing force for the industrial imaging division and adding this kind of product to its mix will give them a "full cart" to sell from.

This manufacturing should not take place in the United States.
Thank you for your clear summary. While I basically agree with your observations, but please forgive my ignorance, could you elaborate on what are "automatic measuring systems"?

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Old 02-13-2017   #56
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That they are in trouble is sad, but not surprising.

I have bought three brand-new Nikons in my time:

1982 - Nikon FE
1998 (I think) - Nikon F80
2005 (approx) - Nikon D70

They had me as a loyal customer up to then, I liked the D70 and still have it, but when it came to buying the next camera I was back into film and into rangefinders. I have a Sony A7ii that fills my need for a dSLR type camera. I still use the same FE, but none of the later digital Nikons appealed. I was a prime potential customer for the Df but that never appealed enough to buy one.
I also bought the following Nikons brand new:

Nikon FE
Nikon FM
Nikon FM2
Nikon D200
Nikon D700

I think the D700 can be used in the liveview mode, but it is so inconvenient that I don't think that I have used that more than 2 or 3 times.

And now I am in the Fuji camp.


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Old 02-13-2017   #57
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D**n! I'm really, REALLY sad to see the end of the DL cameras. I loved the IQ and color from the little Nikon 1 V3 camera. And the Nikon 1 lenses were superb. But... like everyone else I guess, I moved on to larger sensors. But the V3 IQ always stuck in the back of my thoughts and then they announced the coming DL line. So I put off buying something similar, like the Sony RX line. Now what? D**n!!
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Old 02-13-2017   #58
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I thought this was a great comment (from dpreview today. Thanks "ttran88"):

"Nikon killed the DLs to protect Nikon 1 sales. Like how they won't release a a big sensor mirrorless to protect their dslr sales. Or how they won't release more APSC lenses like the great DX 35mm f1.8 to protect their FX sales. They probably won't make their video on dslrs better either to protect their Key Mission sales. Good job Nikon!!!"
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Old 02-13-2017   #59
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Thank you for your clear summary. While I basically agree with your observations, but please forgive my ignorance, could you elaborate on what are "automatic measuring systems"?

Tin
My understanding is that they are precise optical systems that determine distances or measurements from optical scans. They are used in robotics extensively. i'm no expert on this, but it would seem to be a critical part of a truly accurate robotic system. Nikon's autofocus would work on a macro scale. On a micro scale, I don't know. But seems this will be a future wave. The new two legged robots will need to know how far they have to walk and compare to energy reserves, for example, to know if they can make it where they want to go.

Anyone with more detail or better understanding, please add. I once knew a Nikon optical rep (selling microscopes) where her sales motto was "Zeiss is nice at twice the price!"
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Old 02-13-2017   #60
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Originally Posted by HHPhoto View Post
The importance of professionals for the camera sales have always been much much overestimated by amateurs enthusiasts.
Only 1-2 % of all DSLRs are bought by professionals. The whole rest is bought by enthusiast photographers.

Without the market of the enthusiast / amateur photographers it would have never been possible to develop professional cameras. The buying power of professionals alone has always been to weak to keep such a market alive.

Cheers, Jan
Agree but I'm talking about now, in the decline stage only the professionals or even semi-professionals will be the last man standing.
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Old 02-13-2017   #61
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If I remember correctly, Nikon lost money on every one of those S3 and SP remakes. If they try that again in their current condition, they'll bleed to death.
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Old 02-13-2017   #62
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If I remember correctly, Nikon lost money on every one of those S3 and SP remakes. If they try that again in their current condition, they'll bleed to death.
They should have made digital versions of both primo S rangefinder cameras along with the old timey film reissues.

Even out dated APS sensor versions of the Nikon RF cameras would be highly sought after 15 years later.
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Old 02-13-2017   #63
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By the way, GoPro sales have peaked and declined for 2016.
Sold around 4.5 Million cameras in 2016

I am sure Nikon would have been happy with that number for keymission.

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Old 02-13-2017   #64
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Wonder why Sony's A6300 replacement/update - the A6500 - is almost 50% more expensive than its replacement?
The 6500 didn't replace the 6300. They are both current models.
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Old 02-13-2017   #65
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Originally Posted by Jamie Pillers View Post
I thought this was a great comment (from dpreview today. Thanks "ttran88"):

"Nikon killed the DLs to protect Nikon 1 sales. Like how they won't release a a big sensor mirrorless to protect their dslr sales. Or how they won't release more APSC lenses like the great DX 35mm f1.8 to protect their FX sales. They probably won't make their video on dslrs better either to protect their Key Mission sales. Good job Nikon!!!"
Interesting, and that's the same reason Fuji won't make a FF.

You have to wonder how they can miss the obvious, though, which is the direction and opportunities in their real market.

Sony has actually saved themselves with the huge margins on A7 related products, but their lack of still photography experience and poor choices in filter stacks and lens manufacture have stolen a serious portion of the bloom.

What would Nikon's pros really appreciate? Less hernias.

But Nikon is apparently hostage to Sony in the sensor department, like Fuji, and perhaps that is giving both pause to produce a new lighter FF system.

Still only Canon and Nikon are in the value-added position of having legions of pros invested in their lenses. What they have missed so far, is that it's not hard to leverage that with EVIL bodies, and gradually offer smaller lighter pro-level glass to go on them.

Sony seems to have everyone convinced that EVIL lenses must be the size of DSLR lenses for equal performance. If you insist on covering your sensor with 2.6mm of glass, it may be true.

But a nice little .8mm of IR placed within your base coverglass, and nothing else, will allow the steeper ray angles smaller lenses would need, and will handle the legacy glass easily via adapters.

It's the only logical way to give shooters a tangible reason to spend.
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Old 02-13-2017   #66
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What about all those "I am a Nikon" fan ads they've been making?
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Old 02-13-2017   #67
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Whenever I walk into any kind of tourist area and look at what people are carrying, phones aside it's all prosumer SLRs, nearly always Nikon or Canon.

My experience as well, Lawrence.

In the past five years, traveling fairly extensively, I've seen:

A Fuji X 100 in Asheville, NC
A Fuji X 100 somewhere on the streets of London
A Fuji X 100s at the V&A museum, London
A Fuji X Pro 1 in Cornwall

\Dozens upon dozens Nikon and Canon low end dSLRs.

I have had two people approach me upon seeing my Fuji mirrorless:
One asked me how many spare batteries I used with my X100s
The Pro 1 user asked about my Pro 2
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Old 02-13-2017   #68
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Just to reiterate the truth here:

The losses come from the semiconductor and lithography business.

The photo industry losses are in line with the current decline we're seeing across all brands.

This restructuring is great news, as it's been needed at Nikon for a long time.

A mirrorless camera to compete with overpriced Fuji APS-C cams would not have stopped this...because they are NOT SEMICONDUCTORS OR HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH LITHOGRAPHY!

Most importantly, I just bought, and registered, a brand new Nikon F6.
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Old 02-13-2017   #69
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Most importantly, I just bought, and registered, a brand new Nikon F6.
Can't go wrong there.
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Old 02-13-2017   #70
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Whenever I walk into any kind of tourist area and look at what people are carrying, phones aside it's all prosumer SLRs, nearly always Nikon or Canon. Generally there's not a Fuji or Olympus mirrorless in sight because brand recognition is so important in this market. If Nikon simply concentrated on the prosumer and pro I think they'd do OK, although at some point they need to come up with is a mirrorless that can take F mount lenses. Everything else they do photography-wise should be dumped.
Agreed Lawrence. I don't remember the last time I saw a "holiday maker" shooting anything other than a Canon or Nikon DSLR, usually the cheapest one with the kit lens. But even those are swamped by smartphone users.

Quote:
Originally Posted by fdarnell View Post
Interesting story. Here's the fundamental, unavoidable, irreversible facts:

1. The number of people that appreciate the performance of a high quality DSLR or mirrorless is declining and doing so rapidly.

2. The number of people that want one device to text, email, post to social media and keep them connected and make wonderful selfies and food pics to show their friends is growing at an exponential rate.

3. The population of #2 is not well suited to the rigors of detailed, thorough problem-solving skills need to compete successfully in modern manufacturing. Problem solving, data analysis, fact-finding and critical thought are ideas from another universe to them.

4. It's too late to enter the smartphone business, mirrorless business or any format of camera business of any kind in the digital realm.

Therefore:

Given #3 & #4, Nikon should dump the camera division ASAP as it is still profitable and move to building the automatic measuring systems business, since the population of #2 will not be able to provide the skills to keep their ever-increasing demand for instant social approval gratification technology satisfied for their astronomically growing masses. Nikon has a good marketing force for the industrial imaging division and adding this kind of product to its mix will give them a "full cart" to sell from.

This manufacturing should not take place in the United States.
I disagree with your "facts" #1 and #2, and so propose some "alternate facts"

#1. The market for the "pro" camera has ALWAYS been tiny compared to the consumer market.

#2. People have ALWAYS wanted to share their photos immediately. People haven't changed, only the technology that we use to get the job done. Any new technology that can make it easier to quickly share photos with good enough quality will see an exponential growth, then a plateau, then it will fall as the next technology moves in.
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Old 02-13-2017   #71
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The 6500 didn't replace the 6300. They are both current models.
So is the M10 and M240.
But when Leica introduced the M10, it priced it the same as the M240, and reduced the M240's price.

That's what Sony used to do with its A6XXX series. Until the 6500 came out.
Fuji and Olympus did the same thing with their latest offerings - XT2/Xpro2 and OMD EM 1.

They can't afford to sell 'cheap' cameras anymore, and no-one wants to buy them.
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Old 02-14-2017   #72
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Willie, the DSLR market is not a niche.
Concerning unit sales, it is the second biggest segment behind digital compact cameras.
And concerning value/revenue, it even is by far the biggest segment.
Just look at the data:
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html

Cheers, Jan
Yes it is. Of course you have to consider the entire market.

A very small percentage of all the still digital photographs made every day are made with DSLRs. The gross revenues and profits from DSLR bodies, lenses and accessories are a tiny fraction of the total market. Of course practically all of the new, still-camera market sales come from smart phones. A 12 to 16 MP camera is still a camera even if it is in a smart phone. People use their smart phones as they previously dedicated still cameras.

Here's a fact. Most people are completely content using a 12 MP smart phone still camera. By comparison those who need a dedicated still camera are a niche.

When discussing economics, ignoring the smart phone market is incomplete and misleading. Just ask Nikon.
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Old 02-14-2017   #73
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Yes it is. Of course you have to consider the entire market.

A very small percentage of all the still digital photographs made every day are made with DSLRs. The gross revenues and profits from DSLR bodies, lenses and accessories are a tiny fraction of the total market. Of course practically all of the new, still-camera market sales come from smart phones. A 12 to 16 MP camera is still a camera even if it is in a smart phone. People use their smart phones as they previously dedicated still cameras.

Here's a fact. Most people are completely content using a 12 MP smart phone still camera. By comparison those who need a dedicated still camera are a niche.

When discussing economics, ignoring the smart phone market is incomplete and misleading. Just ask Nikon.
That is right on the one hand.
But completely misleading on the other hand: Because all camera manufacturers are not (significantly) involved in the smart phone market. They are affected by it, but they are not players in it.
So their market is just the camera market.

Neither Canon nor Nikon nor anyone else from the camera manufacturers could kick Samsung, Apple etc. out of the smartphone market.
It is just a different universum. Camera manufacturers have to accept that reality.

And smartphone users consider their smartphone as a multi-purpose tool: Internet, telephone, chatting, clock, calendar, and the integrated camera is a bonus. But they don't buy it mainly because they want a camera.

Cheers, Jan
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Old 02-14-2017   #74
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My understanding is that they are precise optical systems that determine distances or measurements from optical scans. They are used in robotics extensively.
Companies like Nvidia are too far ahead for Nikon to catch those markets.
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Old 02-14-2017   #75
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Most importantly, I just bought, and registered, a brand new Nikon F6.
Congratulations!
I am also using an F6 for years, it is by far my favourite camera.
And I have also bought it brand new.
Best 35mm SLR ever!!

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Old 02-14-2017   #76
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Re the Nikon F6...I suppose you are aware of the 'mysterious' BHPhoto offer of this camera at US$ 1,400. On back order for a very long time...
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Old 02-14-2017   #77
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Re the Nikon F6...I suppose you are aware of the 'mysterious' BHPhoto offer of this camera at US$ 1,400. On back order for a very long time...
The F6 is in stock at B&H photo. Both US version and "imported"/ grey market, at quite normal prices.

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Old 02-14-2017   #78
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Re the Nikon F6...I suppose you are aware of the 'mysterious' BHPhoto offer of this camera at US$ 1,400. On back order for a very long time...
"This is a refurbished item and comes with a 90-day warranty."
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Old 02-14-2017   #79
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I just checked and you are right. In that case I'll just continue to be happy with my FM3A and pick-up the refurbished F6 whenever it appears.
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Old 02-14-2017   #80
HHPhoto
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Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Germany
Posts: 1,236
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Wijninga View Post
I just checked and you are right. In that case I'll just continue to be happy with my FM3A and pick-up the refurbished F6 whenever it appears.
As you are living in Switzerland, maybe a better deal is to order a brand new one in Germany, and get it delivered to a "Postfach" or a friend in Germany.
Here is e.g. a very good deal for a brand new one:
https://www.amazon.de/Nikon-FAA410NA...words=Nikon+F6

Cheers, Jan
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