How Low Will Used M9 / M9 Prices go once the M10 arrives?

CameraQuest · 03-18-2012

Its no secret many internet pundits are predicting the M10 will be introduced by, or even before Photokina 2012 (Sept).

In other words, there will be a lot of used M9 and M9P's up for sale as their owners move on to the M10.

I can't help but wonder how low used M9 / M9P prices will go later this year.

Time will tell.

Stephen

Ron (Netherlands) · 03-18-2012

see how the M8.2 and M8 declined when the M9 arrived....write off is about USD 2500 - 3000

btw I'm currently offered a mint second hand M9-P at second hand M9 price... so prices are already going down

sepiareverb · 03-18-2012

I'd expect they'll hold a little better than the 8's did because of the FF sensor. But they'll come down a fair bit. They're already at $5K used and M8 prices haven't fallen a a lot further over the last year. $4000? $3750 maybe? Will also depend on the price of the M10!

thegman · 03-18-2012

Maybe it will depend on the M10 itself, if it's a big step-up, then maybe it'll affect prices a lot. If it's a incremental update, or BW only, that's only going to appeal to a few.

dogberryjr · 03-18-2012

An M10 would have to have some impressive improvements over the M9 AND would need to be very well priced for me to even consider trading up. It's hard to take a $2,000 hit and also pay significantly more than the price of the M9 when new. I'll be interested to see what Leica comes up with.

Moriturii · 03-18-2012

Impossible to answer, because we don't know the price of the M10. If it's the same as current M9 then prices of M9 will go down by anything from $500-$2000, depending on the functionality of the M10. If in true Leica fashion they sell it at $9000 because they know people will buy it, price on M9 won't change much if anything.

TL;DR: Impossible to say, there is no answer.

Nikon Bob · 03-18-2012

Hard to say, Leica has never introduced a new model that was as cheap as the last one even if much improved. Contrary to Nikon who are introducing the D800 at very close to what the D700 was introduced for. If the M10 is substantially higher in price then it may not effect used M9/M9P prices as much as anticipated. It is going to be interesting.

Bob

Roger Hicks · 03-18-2012

For me, this falls into the ever-increasing category of things that I'll worry about when it happens.

What are we likely to be looking at? Better high ISO and more megapixels. There's not a lot else you can change and still leave it as an M. Well, barring B+W only, which I don't think is likely, but 'never say never'. If it is B+W only, I certainly wouldn't regard it as a 'trade up'.

Yes, I'd like better high ISO. Would I pay several thousand dollars for it? No, I don't think so. More megapixels? Likewise. But as others have said, there's so much we don't know, that most speculation is futile. I think I'll just go on taking pics with my M9.

Cheers,

R.

PatrickONeill · 03-18-2012

not below the price of the rumored mirrorless system

Keith · 03-18-2012

I've been watching used M9s on Australian eBay and none have sold lately. One at a starting price of $4500 got no bids at all!

People are now definitely waiting and the expectation of the M10 is a big factor ... I'd happily pay $4500 because I'll bet my hat that the M10 will be close to twice that!

sepiareverb · 03-18-2012

I've no reason to upgrade to an M10. Just made a 40" tall print for an exhibit from a file shot with the M9 and a 35/1.4 pre-ASPH which is absolutely stunning. Better than any 35mm color film I ever shot would deliver. Can't believe the quality handheld with a 30 year old lens.

I'd sell a lot of stuff and go for an S2 if I wanted really big.

250swb · 03-18-2012

Well how low did the market for M8's go when the M9 was introduced? I would imagine the equation is still the same, so rather than ask a hypothetical question do some research using facts. Or are you trying to create a prematurely low market price for used M9's in anticipation?

Steve

Roger Hicks · 03-18-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by 250swb

Well how low did the market for M8's go when the M9 was introduced? I would imagine the equation is still the same, so rather than ask a hypothetical question do some research using facts. Or are you trying to create a prematurely low market price for used M9's in anticipation?

Steve

Dear Steve,

(Highlighted portion): No, I really doubt it. Moving from crop sensor to full frame was a big step, and had lots of us handing over tear-stained cheques; no IR filters was a bonus. Within reason, whatever the M10 does, it ain't gonna be as big a jump.

Cheers,

R.

dogberryjr · 03-18-2012

[quote=Roger Hicks: Within reason, whatever the M10 does, it ain't gonna be as big a jump.

Cheers,

R.[/QUOTE]

Great, now we are going to have to start speculating about the M11!

Roger Hicks · 03-19-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by dogberryjr

Great, now we are going to have to start speculating about the M11!

And the M12.... and M13.... Or of course we can use the cameras we have, or even buy what's available, without worrying about or trying to second-guess what will come out when.

Cheers,

R.

porktaco · 03-18-2012

i think the m10 could be an MX10, and be some kind of tweener camera. it's not at all clear how much room is left at the top end.

FrozenInTime · 03-18-2012

If the ideal Leica walk about combo is two bodies: how many currently have both those as M9s ?

Not many I wager.
I can see at lot of film Ms, M8s and M9s being joined by a M10/11 as the new primary body.

I don't see mass dumping of the M9s in the rush to upgrade - more likely the volume of M7s, MPs and M8s trading on the market would jump significantly.
If the M10 is B&W only, maybe the M8 picks up some appreciation as B&W/IR body.

BobYIL · 03-18-2012

Assumptions and predictions so far are all on a new FF model. What if it would be based on a state-of-art APS-C sensor?! Leica enjoys the widest spectrum of lenses for the APS-C size too...

(Quite possible.. )

Roger Hicks · 03-19-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobYIL

Assumptions and predictions so far are all on a new FF model. What if it would be based on a state-of-art APS-C sensor?! Leica enjoys the widest spectrum of lenses for the APS-C size too...

(Quite possible.. )

Possible, but deeply unlikely, given the heritage of FF lenses. I'd quite like to see an APS-C Leica, but with a new set of lenses designed for the format. On the other hand, why would they bother? Leica owners tend to be traditionalists with a weakness for old lenses, and besides, Leica can't meet demand as it is.

Cheers,

R.

jsrockit · 03-19-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Hicks

I'd quite like to see an APS-C Leica, but with a new set of lenses designed for the format. On the other hand, why would they bother? Leica owners tend to be traditionalists with a weakness for old lenses, and besides, Leica can't meet demand as it is.

Right, but hasn't Leica already indicated they are making an APS-C camera as we errrr, speak.

Roger Hicks · 03-19-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsrockit

Right, but hasn't Leica already indicated they are making an APS-C camera as we errrr, speak.

Indeed, but it won't be an M and I have my doubts about what sort of lenses will be offered. It would be hard (or impossible) to build this at the existing factory alongside the M10 but there's always Portugal...

Cheers,

R.

brokencivilian · 03-18-2012

I'd say just wait and see whats released and what may happen.

f16sunshine · 03-18-2012

What is all this B+W sensor only talk?

Why on earth would a business decide to introduce a product that would reduce it's overall sales vs one that would increase it's overall sales?

sig · 03-18-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by f16sunshine

What is all this B+W sensor only talk?

Why on earth would a business decide to introduce a product that would reduce it's overall sales vs one that would increase it's overall sales?

B&W only.... I think that is a good question. Maybe it has to do with the history of Leica being used by famous street photographers from a time when B&W was the only usable choice? (Leica = street = B&W)

I think the prices will go more down than they have up to now. They might go lower than the M8 too (compared in percentage), it seems like there are more M9 cams than M8 out there.

Ben Z · 03-18-2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by sig

I think the prices will go more down than they have up to now. They might go lower than the M8 too (compared in percentage), it seems like there are more M9 cams than M8 out there.

How many people do you think would pay more for an M8 than an M9???