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How Low Will Used M9 / M9 Prices go once the M10 arrives?
Old 03-18-2012   #1
CameraQuest
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How Low Will Used M9 / M9 Prices go once the M10 arrives?

Its no secret many internet pundits are predicting the M10 will be introduced by, or even before Photokina 2012 (Sept).

In other words, there will be a lot of used M9 and M9P's up for sale as their owners move on to the M10.

I can't help but wonder how low used M9 / M9P prices will go later this year.

Time will tell.

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Old 03-18-2012   #2
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see how the M8.2 and M8 declined when the M9 arrived....write off is about USD 2500 - 3000

btw I'm currently offered a mint second hand M9-P at second hand M9 price... so prices are already going down
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Old 03-18-2012   #3
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I'd expect they'll hold a little better than the 8's did because of the FF sensor. But they'll come down a fair bit. They're already at $5K used and M8 prices haven't fallen a a lot further over the last year. $4000? $3750 maybe? Will also depend on the price of the M10!
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Old 03-18-2012   #4
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Maybe it will depend on the M10 itself, if it's a big step-up, then maybe it'll affect prices a lot. If it's a incremental update, or BW only, that's only going to appeal to a few.
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Old 03-18-2012   #5
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An M10 would have to have some impressive improvements over the M9 AND would need to be very well priced for me to even consider trading up. It's hard to take a $2,000 hit and also pay significantly more than the price of the M9 when new. I'll be interested to see what Leica comes up with.
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Old 03-18-2012   #6
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Impossible to answer, because we don't know the price of the M10. If it's the same as current M9 then prices of M9 will go down by anything from $500-$2000, depending on the functionality of the M10. If in true Leica fashion they sell it at $9000 because they know people will buy it, price on M9 won't change much if anything.

TL;DR: Impossible to say, there is no answer.
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Old 03-18-2012   #7
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Hard to say, Leica has never introduced a new model that was as cheap as the last one even if much improved. Contrary to Nikon who are introducing the D800 at very close to what the D700 was introduced for. If the M10 is substantially higher in price then it may not effect used M9/M9P prices as much as anticipated. It is going to be interesting.

Bob
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Old 03-18-2012   #8
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For me, this falls into the ever-increasing category of things that I'll worry about when it happens.

What are we likely to be looking at? Better high ISO and more megapixels. There's not a lot else you can change and still leave it as an M. Well, barring B+W only, which I don't think is likely, but 'never say never'. If it is B+W only, I certainly wouldn't regard it as a 'trade up'.

Yes, I'd like better high ISO. Would I pay several thousand dollars for it? No, I don't think so. More megapixels? Likewise. But as others have said, there's so much we don't know, that most speculation is futile. I think I'll just go on taking pics with my M9.

Cheers,

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Old 03-18-2012   #9
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not below the price of the rumored mirrorless system
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Old 03-18-2012   #10
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I've been watching used M9s on Australian eBay and none have sold lately. One at a starting price of $4500 got no bids at all!

People are now definitely waiting and the expectation of the M10 is a big factor ... I'd happily pay $4500 because I'll bet my hat that the M10 will be close to twice that!
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Old 03-18-2012   #11
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I've no reason to upgrade to an M10. Just made a 40" tall print for an exhibit from a file shot with the M9 and a 35/1.4 pre-ASPH which is absolutely stunning. Better than any 35mm color film I ever shot would deliver. Can't believe the quality handheld with a 30 year old lens.

I'd sell a lot of stuff and go for an S2 if I wanted really big.
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Old 03-18-2012   #12
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Well how low did the market for M8's go when the M9 was introduced? I would imagine the equation is still the same, so rather than ask a hypothetical question do some research using facts. Or are you trying to create a prematurely low market price for used M9's in anticipation?

Steve
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Old 03-18-2012   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 250swb View Post


Well how low did the market for M8's go when the M9 was introduced? I would imagine the equation is still the same, so rather than ask a hypothetical question do some research using facts. Or are you trying to create a prematurely low market price for used M9's in anticipation?

Steve
Dear Steve,

(Highlighted portion): No, I really doubt it. Moving from crop sensor to full frame was a big step, and had lots of us handing over tear-stained cheques; no IR filters was a bonus. Within reason, whatever the M10 does, it ain't gonna be as big a jump.

Cheers,

R.
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Old 03-18-2012   #14
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[quote=Roger Hicks: Within reason, whatever the M10 does, it ain't gonna be as big a jump.

Cheers,

R.[/QUOTE]

Great, now we are going to have to start speculating about the M11!
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Old 03-19-2012   #15
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Originally Posted by dogberryjr View Post
Great, now we are going to have to start speculating about the M11!
And the M12.... and M13.... Or of course we can use the cameras we have, or even buy what's available, without worrying about or trying to second-guess what will come out when.

Cheers,

R.
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Old 03-18-2012   #16
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i think the m10 could be an MX10, and be some kind of tweener camera. it's not at all clear how much room is left at the top end.
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Old 03-18-2012   #17
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If the ideal Leica walk about combo is two bodies: how many currently have both those as M9s ?

Not many I wager.
I can see at lot of film Ms, M8s and M9s being joined by a M10/11 as the new primary body.

I don't see mass dumping of the M9s in the rush to upgrade - more likely the volume of M7s, MPs and M8s trading on the market would jump significantly.
If the M10 is B&W only, maybe the M8 picks up some appreciation as B&W/IR body.
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Old 03-18-2012   #18
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Assumptions and predictions so far are all on a new FF model. What if it would be based on a state-of-art APS-C sensor?! Leica enjoys the widest spectrum of lenses for the APS-C size too...

(Quite possible.. )
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Old 03-19-2012   #19
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Quote:
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Assumptions and predictions so far are all on a new FF model. What if it would be based on a state-of-art APS-C sensor?! Leica enjoys the widest spectrum of lenses for the APS-C size too...

(Quite possible.. )
Possible, but deeply unlikely, given the heritage of FF lenses. I'd quite like to see an APS-C Leica, but with a new set of lenses designed for the format. On the other hand, why would they bother? Leica owners tend to be traditionalists with a weakness for old lenses, and besides, Leica can't meet demand as it is.

Cheers,

R.
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Old 03-19-2012   #20
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Quote:
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I'd quite like to see an APS-C Leica, but with a new set of lenses designed for the format. On the other hand, why would they bother? Leica owners tend to be traditionalists with a weakness for old lenses, and besides, Leica can't meet demand as it is.
Right, but hasn't Leica already indicated they are making an APS-C camera as we errrr, speak.
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Old 03-19-2012   #21
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Right, but hasn't Leica already indicated they are making an APS-C camera as we errrr, speak.
Indeed, but it won't be an M and I have my doubts about what sort of lenses will be offered. It would be hard (or impossible) to build this at the existing factory alongside the M10 but there's always Portugal...

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Old 03-18-2012   #23
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What is all this B+W sensor only talk?

Why on earth would a business decide to introduce a product that would reduce it's overall sales vs one that would increase it's overall sales?
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Old 03-18-2012   #24
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What is all this B+W sensor only talk?

Why on earth would a business decide to introduce a product that would reduce it's overall sales vs one that would increase it's overall sales?
B&W only.... I think that is a good question. Maybe it has to do with the history of Leica being used by famous street photographers from a time when B&W was the only usable choice? (Leica = street = B&W)

I think the prices will go more down than they have up to now. They might go lower than the M8 too (compared in percentage), it seems like there are more M9 cams than M8 out there.
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Old 03-18-2012   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sig

I think the prices will go more down than they have up to now. They might go lower than the M8 too (compared in percentage), it seems like there are more M9 cams than M8 out there.
How many people do you think would pay more for an M8 than an M9???
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Old 03-18-2012   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f16sunshine View Post
What is all this B+W sensor only talk?

Why on earth would a business decide to introduce a product that would reduce it's overall sales vs one that would increase it's overall sales?
Wondered the very same thing. Only on RFF would that B&W only sensor even come up but then again it is Leica we are talking about. You never know.

Bob
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Old 03-19-2012   #27
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Wondered the very same thing. Only on RFF would that B&W only sensor even come up but then again it is Leica we are talking about. You never know.
applauds for person who managed to sneak that into discussion, here or LUF for a moment it seemed only feature everyone wanted for M10!

am throwing a guess that moderately used, no warranty M9's drop around 2800EUR range?
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Effects of non-Leica developments
Old 03-18-2012   #28
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Effects of non-Leica developments

The small interchangeable lens camera with high IQ marketplace is booming these days. When XPro1, Nex7, and E-M5 IQ tests from sources like dxomark and dpreview hit the web, I suspect there could be even more impact on used Leica DRF prices. Maybe its a minor effect? But I for one am no longer hoping for any high IQ Leica gear at a reasonable price (for me that means under $2000).

There was a day when I looked forward to possible ownership of a used M8 or even M8.2 when their used prices went sub-$2000. But now I'm looking instead toward Fuji and Sony.. even Olympus, to fill my 'need'. With the Fuji X100, XPro1, Sony Nex7, and Olympus' E-M5 we can now foresee real possibilities for reasonably priced small bodies with high IQ and the ability to use just about any lens under the sun, including Leitz!!

Unless Leica has some surprises up its sleeve, it appears to me that they don't really care about growing their market share. They seem to be completely satisfied to continue living within the confines of a pretty small sector of the camera market. Oh well.
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Old 03-19-2012   #29
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I think the M10 will have the same percentage effect on the M9 prices as the M9 had on the M8 when [and if] it comes out, I don't really think it matters what the M10 will be, there are always plenty people that want and can afford the latest thing, and there's plenty people like me that let them take the hit and buy their old gear
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Old 03-19-2012   #30
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In my 30 years experience, Leica prices drop 40~50% from new in the used market. If a M8 cost $4750 new, then used in exc+++ condition it is going to sell for ~ $2200 (even if never actually used).

New models are always introduced at a significantly higher price then the last model. Therefore the used prices either stay the same, or tend to increase. So when the M9 came out at ~$9000, the used price was / is about 60% of $9000 or $5400. So for a lot of buyers the M8 used price of $2200 still looks pretty good.

When, and if, the M10 comes out I'd guess the price will be over $10K. Nothing on the M10 will obsolete the M9 or M8. The prices on the M8 and M9 are going to look pretty good to a lot of people and watch prices go up.

Because Leica cannot meet the current demand for normal lenses prices have sky rocketed for new 50's. Have you seen the prices for older 50's go down?
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Old 03-19-2012   #31
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Quote:
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In my 30 years experience, Leica prices drop 40~50% from new in the used market. If a M8 cost $4750 new, then used in exc+++ condition it is going to sell for ~ $2200 (even if never actually used).

New models are always introduced at a significantly higher price then the last model. Therefore the used prices either stay the same, or tend to increase. So when the M9 came out at ~$9000, the used price was / is about 60% of $9000 or $5400. So for a lot of buyers the M8 used price of $2200 still looks pretty good.

When, and if, the M10 comes out I'd guess the price will be over $10K. Nothing on the M10 will obsolete the M9 or M8. The prices on the M8 and M9 are going to look pretty good to a lot of people and watch prices go up.

Because Leica cannot meet the current demand for normal lenses prices have sky rocketed for new 50's. Have you seen the prices for older 50's go down?
Highlight: Initially, true. But then they start going up again... I'd love to buy an M2 for GBP 160:1:4d (1966 price). True, digi Ms are deeply unlikely to behave in the same way, but I'd still suspect that they'll hold their price better an other digital cameras, and maybe even increase in price eventually.

Otherwise, I'd agree without trying to add anything to what you've said.

Cheers,

R.
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Old 03-19-2012   #32
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Highlight: Initially, true. But then they start going up again... I'd love to buy an M2 for GBP 160:1:4d (1966 price). R.
Gotta compare apples to apples. That M2 for GBP 160 in 1966 is probably a lot more than a new M9 in today's dollars.

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Old 03-20-2012   #33
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[quote=Beemermark;1836581]... If a M8 cost $4750 new, then used in exc+++ condition it is going to sell for ~ $2200 (even if never actually used).....

quote]


I bought my exc +++ M8 more than a year ago for $2200 and it still seems to be worth about the same. I have no desire or need to have the latest and greatest, and am willing to be "one-step behind" and take advantage of the new model introduction to move up one step. So, if the M10 is real, I just might be looking to sell my M8 (hopefully for about what I paid for it) and get an M9. I wouldn't and didn't want to pay the price for a new M9 (or a new M8 for that matter) when they were introudced, and would certainly not for the M10, which will command an even higher price. I have not had any problems whatsover with my M8 and have been very happy with it, despite all the negative problem reports that abound, and that mine (thankfully) doesn't exhibit. The main reason I would move up to the M9 is for the full-frame, and secondly for the higher resolution. All my Leica glass of course is still there and perfectly usable, and I could even sell all my UV/IR-cut filters to boot!
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Old 03-19-2012   #34
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One aspect of Leica's pricing policy that has not yet been revealed is how much they'll charge for the M10 when it arrives. If, as they appear to have stated, they want to eveolve the digital M on a 3 yearly cycle, in line with other digital white (black?) goods, then they may be forced to adopt similar pricing policies to their competitors and so the price of the top model may be expected to remain fairly constant as it benefits from improvements.

I don't have a view, but I wonder if constantly inflating new digital camera prices during a worldwide recession is a viable business model. The chips get very expensive if you don't buy a lot of them.

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Old 03-19-2012   #35
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Leica will definitely hoist the price of the M10 as far as they dare I'll wager!

Kind of makes you wonder how Nikon can bring out the D800 at a price almost the same as the D700 when it was released ... with substantial improvements into the bargain!
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Old 03-19-2012   #36
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launching a new camera that only shoots in B&W is as smart as launching a mobile phone that will exclusively send sms.

i'm hoping for M9 prices to drop even more after the M10 is released, but if the M10 brings interesting features and its price is not absurd (yeah right), it might be a more appealing option.
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Old 03-19-2012   #37
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I will wait until the M10 comes out to decide what to buy. The cost of such cameras is quite high, so buying one model just to find out that the new model is much superior (somehow) would be a blow.

I expect initially to see a modest drop in prices for the M9. Then the M10 will be used, and then we will see the true impact of the M10 on the prices for the M9.
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Old 03-19-2012   #38
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I will wait until the M10 comes out to decide what to buy. The cost of such cameras is quite high, so buying one model just to find out that the new model is much superior (somehow) would be a blow.

I expect initially to see a modest drop in prices for the M9. Then the M10 will be used, and then we will see the true impact of the M10 on the prices for the M9.

That is always a problem with 3 or so year model replacement cycles, there is always a new improved model in the pipe. If you have an M9 and it meets your needs then upgrading immediately is not that important. Just the other side of that coin.

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Old 03-19-2012   #39
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That is always a problem with 3 or so year model replacement cycles, there is always a new improved model in the pipe. If you have an M9 and it meets your needs then upgrading immediately is not that important. Just the other side of that coin.

Bob

Hi Bob,
I don't have an M8 or M9. If the M10 is not really a significant upgrade, then the M9 seems to be choice for me. Then, that would be my digital camera for many years, hopefully.

Cameras have become like computers.
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Old 03-19-2012   #40
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With the new owners leica might try to make money on a aps-c type camera. Production can be outsourced so no need to slow down on the M9 production.
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