$$$$$

[Bill Pierce]

With more and more economies on the downside, jobs disappearing or being downsized and retirement savings reduced by a fallen stock market, will a conspicuous consumption item like the M8 survive? What do you think?

And, during these times, will any company, say Cosina, risk introducing a more economical rangefinder as a working tool? What do you think?

Could it be the economy, not the competition from other cameras, that is the next big hurdle for Leitz?

[back alley]

the m8 has a small target audience to begin with and i doubt that the impact on them will deter a small purchase like the m8. in fact, sales might go up as the leica is way cheaper than a new benz.

cosina already produces economical rfs.

i think the bulk of rf sales comes from within the used market so the economy might not be a strong deterrent.

joe

[MartinP]

The future of digital Leicas could depend more on how many working pros and hire shops move to the S2.

In the current climate I suppose not many will dump their Mamiya or Hasselblad digitals, but there are always new camera bodies required by someone(?).

Having written that, I see that perhaps for film rangefinders there are already enough M's to go round (meaning I never bought a new one), so digital is different due to the relatively immature technology. And that same tech problem probably means there won't be a new version of the Epson anytime soon, whatever name is on the front :(

[Al Kaplan]

Bill, I don't think that the folks buying Leicas brand new these days are truely concerned about little sums of money like $10,000, or think about how much money they'll "save by going digital". Cosina's price point is still easily within range of anybody who can put off buying a new car until next year. And YES, the market is there for a "working tool". A full frame sensor Cosina rangefinder would still find a market with both working pros and amatures who DO think about all the money they'll save by going digital.

It's mostly the middle income fondlers who'll be left out in the cold.

[Gabriel M.A.]

will a conspicuous consumption item like the M8 survive? What do you think?

I don't think this will be a problem for "the M8", because (#1), the target market is people who can afford it. People who can afford it, more often than not, come from a different segment of the population, than, say, the artist.

If you were to ask the question about, I don't know...a Big Mac vs. Beluga caviar, and if Beluga caviar were a food staple in the majority of homes, then I'd say, yes, for sure, Beluga caviar is bound to die a swift death, if its target market were Joe The Plumber, Joe Six-Pack, and Joe "Who-Cares!" Doe.

[bmattock]

I heard a story on NPR this morning about Netflix. They are doing OK, such that others are watching them and wondering if they are benefiting from a phenomena whose name I missed - but something to do with substitution. As the economy worsens, people are trading a night out at the movies for a Netflix subscription.

For those who want a quality rangefinder, I could see Cosina fitting into the niche formerly occupied by Leica.

On the other hand, I suspect that Leica occupies a niche less for what it is (a camera) and more for who they are (Leica). People who want a Leica want a Leica.

I don't know how much Leica will be hurt by a recession. Most of their customers, I suspect, are recession-proof. No proof of that, just a guess. I'd love to a demographic study on Leica customers.

[ferider]

Everybody will suffer, and, as a (de facto) private company, it will depend mostly on how much cash Leica/Kaufmann have. Probably better positioned/protected than most public companies.

The Pro (S2 and maybe some M8) segment will get less (for example wedding) contracts. "Middle income fondlers" (whatever that means) will buy less toys - and less art of course, impacting the pro market.

Let's see if any of us will get tax refunds.

It's a good time to buy used. Prices will keep going down.

Roland.

[dcsang]

I think Gabriel took the words (and caviar) right out of my mouth - his statements ring true to me..

Dave

[tbm]

I own nearly every Leica reflex lens released below 400mm and if the forthcoming Leica Digital R10 is priced below the horribly expensive M8 I will pull dollars from my savings and buy the R10. On the other hand, I will never buy a digital M because I prefer the extra reach of R lenses to the limitation of 135mm on the M side.

[marke]

"Middle income fondlers" (whatever that means) will buy less toys - and less art of course, impacting the pro market.

Hey, I resemble that!

Actually, I'm a recovering middle-aged, middle income fondler myself. And it's all that fondling between shutter snaps that will eventually get my shiny MP all brassed up! So in the end, what matters most is not whether or not you are a fondler. What matters most is what you are doing while you're fondling.

[ferider]

Was just quoting post #4, Mark .... The point being it's the fondlers who buy some of the art, too :)

[marke]

Was just quoting post #4, Mark .... The point being it's the fondlers who buy some of the art, too :)

I know. I was just messin' with Al. ;) I know how he feels about Ms that sit around all day on pretty velvet pillows, while others are out there on the streets working their little baseplates off.

[Rui Morais de Sousa]

Do you remember those metal cans where Tri-X buck film used to come, some 30 years ago? Each night, when I came back from my cab driving (in Heidelberg, Germany), I would try to save some change, sometimes even a bill or two (if it had been a good night...), and keep it in those film cans. In a couple of months, I could maybe have the can full and be able to buy one more Summicron or that long-dreamed M2 (used, of course!). That's how I started buying my Leitz equipment: driving cabs at night.
Than one day I had a chance and I fullfilled my dream: I became a pro! For a couple of years it did work fine, I even suffered from too much work. It was not unusual to make two or three months non-stop, without a single Sunday. So I almost stoped shooting Leicas, as I earned my bucks with some other larger stuff.
Around 2000 things started slowing down... When I heard of the new Cosina/Voigtländers I couldn't avoid thinking that if I would have to start new again, I would have to content myself with it. After all they "look" like nice cameras (I never used one, so I can't judge for myself, but I believe), and they are rangefinders, right?
Well, all these years later and with all this economic recession, my dream (the one of becoming a pro) is getting a nightmare, and I start thinking that I may need to switch brands soon... No, I will not buy Voigtländer! I will be happy if I can afford a Kiev or Zorki... After all, they are also rangefinders, or?
And my Leicas always were a poor man's Leicas, right?
Do cab drivers deserve Leicas?
Rui (http://ruimoraisdesousa.blogspot.com/)
P.S.: I apologize if I sound a little bitter. I am bitter!
(And you can bet that I will do everything to keep them!...:))

[photomoof]

It is interesting that everyone on the RFF (with a few notable exceptions) seems to be very concerned about the m8 prices, and many seem to have purchased a camera that they cannot easily afford.

There are even buyers who mention "saving up" for an M8.

I wonder how many of the M8's have been sold to buyers who cannot afford one.

For me the entire price of an M8 is tax deductible, but how many are like me?

How many RFF members who buy an M8 for $5000 have to earn $7000 to buy it, and will find it difficult to spend a tenth of their annual income on a camera body, if they might lose their job?

I don't quite buy into the idea that the M8 is bought by the crowd who does not even ask the price since their accountant pays the bills.

[alan davus]

I can't help but think that Leica sales will be affected by the economic downturn. It's not just working class people who are sufferring. Many of those in the upmarket part of town have lost a fortune as their share portfolios have nose dived in value (I know plenty). In times like these people just shut up shop and stop spending and $6000 hobbyist cameras disappear from the "must have" list real quickly. I won't be buying Leica or otherwise this year.

[Al Kaplan]

Unless you really think that we're headed for a 1930's style lingering depression this is probably a good time to be buying. When people do start buying again prices will rebound.

[Nikon Bob]

Unless you really think that we're headed for a 1930's style lingering depression this is probably a good time to be buying. When people do start buying again prices will rebound.


Will it linger is the trillion dollar, adjusted for inflation, question. I hope it doesn't but people are cautious and this is going to be a problem for all sellers short or long term whichever way this down turn shakes out.

Bob

[Harry Lime]

I think Leica's problems are two fold and they started well before the economic troubles hit.

First off the camera has always been overpriced and the recent increases are plain ridiculous. Obviously anyone buying an M8 these days is quite well off. $6500 for the body and perhaps several thoudsand more for a lens is not something your average enthusiast is just going to plunk down. There are lot of people out there that would like an M8.x, but 9 out 10 simply can't afford it. I know at least 4 people who would buy one in a heartbeat, if it was a lot cheaper.

The second problem is the price / performance ratio. Regardless of the fact that the M8 is the only digital rangefinder on the market, it is simply not worth $6500. If it was $2999 new I would say Leica had a leg to stand on, but it's not. If it was $6500 and delivered performance on the level of a Nikon D3x or 5D-II, it would still be pushing the limits. $10,000 for an M8 and 2/28 Cron ASPH is preposterous. At that price you're almost at the entry point of medium format. The camera is also +2 years old and except for sharpness, something like a $1400 D300 will eat it for breakfast. High ISO performance is pretty far behind. And lets not get started on the reliability issues, quirks (IR) and lack of standard features for a professional camera (weathersealing).

So, yes, Leica had a lot of problems to begin with and the economy tanking on an epic scale is not helping either.

I've always seen the M8 as a stopgap measure that Leica had to rush out the door at any cost; at a point in time when they were days away from going out of business. It's the M4-2 of our age. I expect the M9 to be a very different beast, unless management completely screws things up.

[noimmunity]

I wouldn't be surprised if aspects of the economy slow down things--especially the release of new cameras and lenses from Japan.

I still find it hard to believe that nobody's been seriously biting on any of the lenses I have for sale.

[Rui Morais de Sousa]

I fully agree with you Harry Lime.
Besides, who really needs or can afford the new 1.4 wonders?
If you think about the enormous amount of money you need, for ex., to buy a new M8+1.4/21mm, it is very hard to believe that any pro on his mind would be interested on the purchase...
Maybe a very, very stellar one, but such one would get it eventually as a gift. For some years now, Leica has been distancing itself from working professionals. The global crisis won't help for sure.
Rui (http://ruimoraisdesousa.blogspot.com/)

[35mmdelux]

Businesses will maintain course during these troubled times and jettison under-performing products. Introducing cost saving products is a good way to go IMHO. However, there are no substitutes for certain branded products, such as Leica. For instance, Timex may introduce a super-duper quartz watch but I would still go for the Rolex.

The M8? Dont have enough hard data to make a guesstimate. I don't see a new Cosina RF being introduced. The Ikon is already avail as a low cost model as are the Bessas.

Often, financially troubled companies do not survive serious economic downturns. I would not be surprised if Leica were to shut its doors, reconfigure and spin off its lens line. Far more powerful companies have tapped out during the past year. I hope Leica survives, but it will have to reinvent itself.

[charjohncarter]

I think Canon, Nikon, Leica and other high end digital products will be hurt. But Canon and Nikon will survive. Not because they better products but because they have low end products that will carry them.

[FA Limited]

I don't think this will be a problem for "the M8", because (#1), the target market is people who can afford it. People who can afford it, more often than not, come from a different segment of the population, than, say, the artist.

If you were to ask the question about, I don't know...a Big Mac vs. Beluga caviar, and if Beluga caviar were a food staple in the majority of homes, then I'd say, yes, for sure, Beluga caviar is bound to die a swift death, if its target market were Joe The Plumber, Joe Six-Pack, and Joe "Who-Cares!" Doe.

if even luxury car makers are taking a hit, then i wouldn't be surprised if leica takes a hit too. although it could be argued that the rich would substitute these cars with cheaper luxury goods like leicas, but i doubt it :D

[Dogman]

I bought all my Leica film-based equipment used. It was still expensive but it was within reason for me at the time. Looking at the M8--even used M8's--the prices are not within reason whatsoever. If I were still a working photographer instead of a photo hobbyist and I was trying to survive in this crappy economy, I would pick my tools very carefully with a close eye on return on investment.

All my digital equipment is Canon. I would like to buy another dSLR body eventually but I've downsized from a possible 5D to a "maybe" XSi. Unless I decide to buy a lottery ticket and it happens to win, no Leica digital will ever be in my future.

I believe a lot of people worldwide are looking at a bleaker economic future than I am. If they are realistic, they will reassess their priorities and find they simply can make do with something less than their previous expectations. After all, this consumer-driven, credit-based economy has proven to be a fast ride to nowhere in a rocket that's run out of fuel.

Given that rosy forecast, can anyone really believe Leica won't be hurt by the economic downturn?

[benkelley]

I wonder if the current yen price will help Leica, by finding more Japanese buyers for not only the M8 but also new lenses(luxes), and potentially the S2. I don't know what the economic situation is there right now, but I wonder if the value of the yen won't make it cheaper to buy new Leica in Japan. I also wonder if it will make Japanese goods more expensive elsewhere, perhaps slowing the dSLR wars down a hair?