Will the recession decrease the price of a used Noctilux?

[eleskin]

I wonder why this price bubble has not popped yet. A few years ago, when the economy was better, I could have bought a Noctilux for $3000 or so. The M8 introduction and other issues drove the price up on this lens. The economy is getting worse by the day, and yet the price of this lens does not change. Is it a lens only for the very rich? I remember in 1993, I could have bought one for $2300. Something has to change. There is bound to be a lens coming from Zeiss that will be similar and sharper. Voigtlander will have one too. And here is an issue: Lenses in the f1.2 range can give a similar look, and if you are using a future digital body with vibration reduction, Noctilux becomes an overpriced paperweight, although with film, the faster f stop still is important.

[Chriscrawfordphoto]

I don't think it wil. I've noticed as the economy has worsened that the prices being demanded for used film gear have gone up. Even worthless things like old Minolta manual focus SLRs that went on ebay for $30 are being put up at outrageous reserves and buy it now prices. People are trying to squeeze blood from stones I think.

[WoolenMammoth]

people with money always have money.

the thing that will effect the bottom of the noctilux is when cosina makes a f1 lens for whomever at a reasonable price. I recently commented on this in another thread:

Tom abrahams mentioned recently how the price of the 21mm SA was effected when cosina built a comparable offering. It went from the only game in town suddenly to a lens that appealed to a certain section of the market that were interested in its "flaws" since there was a "better" and well more affordable 21mm option on the market. Its somewhat logical to deduce that the price of a noct could be effected similarly if there were a new offering from another company that was of reasonably similar quality (saving a debate on whatever that is) for considerably less money. Its reasonable to think that the noct will relatively hold its value were that to happen however I would think the way the price has screamed through the roof would completely stop. If there was a cosina 50mm f1 lens that was decent enough for a handful of people out there, and it was available 18 months ago, we would probably not be seeing $5k noctilux right now.

If you think about it, a parallel comparison between the 21mm SA and a noctilux is pretty level, they are both "flawed" lenses that definitely appeal to people because of their look. The problem with the noct is that in addition to appealing to the people that like its unique look, it also appeals to every single other person that wants a F1 lens. If the market provides a lens that is way better than the canon f1 I think you'll see a lot of potential noctilux people that just want an F1 lens and dont care about the special noctilux look going that route and especially so if the lens is well lower priced, which it would almost certainly be if you consider the price of the average cosina lens. Once this happens, the noct is now reduced to where the current 21mm SA is, its an awesome lens, its still in demand, however the only people using it are people that understand it and WANT to use it, someone that just wants a 21mm can get one for $300 and not pay the premium on the SA. There's less people in the market now and the high price just cant sustain itself. I got my SA for $600, which is a deal, but flatly impossible years ago. The guy that sold it to me "upgraded" to a newer 21mm from cosina.

Paying $5k for a noct now, to not use it, to me is insane as the instant someone makes a new f1, your "investment" is in trouble. Of course this may never happen, but if I owned a lens company and looked at the demand for noct, I'd certainly be spending my r&d budget for the next while on figuring out a f1 lens. Not everyone that bought a noct wanted a noct, they just wanted F1 and they didnt like the canon...

[Mean Panda]

The price of noctilux is not reduced if you buy it new. But a used Noctilux on ebay is going for at least 15- 20% less now comparing at the peak. I don't know if that's because of the economy or people start to look for something else. Looks like the price of the Noct can go down even more. I brought my Noctilux back in 2004, so it doesn't really affect me much if I want to sell it now. But if someone wants to buy one now, you really should think twice.

[fbf]

If a FF digital RF is coming out (if ever), I would expect that the price of all the fast lens will go up, particularly the noctilux and all the summilux.

[JWW]

Don't forget that comparing Ebay prices depends on what currency you're using. The dollar is 20% stronger than the euro so the price will appear cheaper now but if you're using British pounds I'm sure it looks like the price skyrocketed.

[Al Kaplan]

I had the imression from reading ads that a digital camera only need an f/5.6 "kit" lens.

[Mackinaw]

Remember that this lens, the F1.0 version, was just discontinued, so has joined the "gotta have because it's not being made anymore" club. I doubt very much the price will ever come down substantially, bad economy or not. Same with the 75mm Summilux. I bought a mint example from a fellow RFF'r, a few year's back when it was still being made, for $1,450.00. Today it's worth substantially more.

Jim B.

[endustry]

I own a Nocti (purchased about four years ago for a little over $2k) and have begun to wonder if I'd be just as well off with a Canon 50mm f/1.2.

No, that's not an invitation for a trade ;p

[fbf]

I own a Nocti (purchased about four years ago for a little over $2k) and have begun to wonder if I'd be just as well off with a Canon 50mm f/1.2.

No, that's not an invitation for a trade ;p


makes people wonder "what if I bought 100 noctilux about 5 years ago and how much money i am getting today" :D

[WoolenMammoth]

I know this might be a little off topic for this post, but I see the sentiment that noct sales were fueled by the M8. Is there anyone that can explain this line of thinking to me as I simply dont see what one has to do with the other.

[Abbazz]

A "BGN" grade Noctilux is currently $3,520.00 on Keh's website. Not so expensive compared to some eBay "bargains".

Cheers!

Abbazz

[vieri]

I am not sure - but it will make the number of those who could afford it decrease, that's for sure :D

[35mmdelux]

I've never had more than a curiousity desire for the Noct. Its too big and heavy to carry on everyday basis and defeats the purpose for wanting to work with the Leica.

A while back I read all things being even, the Summilux was the best compromise for a fast lens. I guess the writer should have just said the Noct was a specialty lens.

Anyhow I did see one for sale on the other site for $3900.

[sojournerphoto]

Depends on how many buyers and sellers there are. Ignoring any new entrants into the f1 market, unless the number is small and theat group of sellers and buyers are at alevel to be unaffected by the recession then the price will fall. How far, I don;t know.

At the moment in the UK the proces of most things are rising, but that will stop too - or there will be far fewer sales.

Mike

[aperture64]

Will Ferarri have a Red Tag sale? Probably not.

[sojournerphoto]

Not officially, but the impact on price/volume depends on the marginal sleler and buyer. Second hand ferraris will fall in value, and high end 'classics' more so.

People in the UK don't want to sell houses for less than they believed they were worth, but they do. Real prices are around 30% down from the high point and still falling.

Mike

[marke]

I've never had more than a curiousity desire for the Noct. Its too big and heavy to carry on everyday basis and defeats the purpose for wanting to work with the Leica.

A while back I read all things being even, the Summilux was the best compromise for a fast lens. I guess the writer should have just said the Noct was a specialty lens.

I feel the same way as you do, Paul. The nocti is just too big for me. After all, I want to keep my RF smaller than my DSLR! And after reading a similar thing about the Summilux, I decided on one (50/1.4) myself. Now I just wish I could afford a 35/1.4 too.

[Al Kaplan]

I'd like to see the 50mm f/0.95 Angenieux in a Leica M mount. I love the bokeh of Angenieux lenses.

[Tom A]

The current Noctilux is the 1975 replacement of the Noctilux 50f1.2 It remained virtually unchanged from 1975 to 2008. The production was always small, one figure I heard bandied about some years ago was "around 200 a year" which would give us a figure of 6600-7000 in total production. There were some of these lenses fitted to measuring devices and cameras for CT screens and they might account for some more lens-heads produced.
What is important here is the fact that it was an old design, but apart from the Nikon F1.1, the Canon f1.2, Fuji's 50f1,2 and some very low production runs of fast lenses (Zunow's 50mm f1.1) from other manufacturers, it was the only game in town by 1975. It was always a premium priced lens and in 1975 it was quite sensational. Some people love it, others could'nt care less. I have had 5 of them over the last 33 years + a 50f1.2 Noctilux before that. It become a legend and virtually every M user wanted one, even if it was for a brief time. It is difficult to use well, it is large and truth be told (from my own point of view) results could be called uneven.
Most Noctiluxes go through more owners than just about any other piece of optical glass. It has become a "rite of passage" for M users. You buy it, shoot with it and after a while resell it to the next M-use who is convinced that it will make him/her a great shooter!!!! The price reflects this status - not the volume nor the quality of the image! I know of a couple of shooters who has done incredible stuff with noctiluxes - and i have also seen some of the worsts print ever done with by proud, new owners!
Around 6-7000 of them out there is a large "pool" and, in todays market. there will probably be a price adjustment. The "must have the latest" will splurge on the 0.95/50 and once that one is freely available, even more f1/50's will show up as used. If someone (Zeiss/Cosina) come up with a modern, computer designed, modern glass and coatings etc 50mm f1.1 of 1,2 - it would most likely outperform the original Noctilux and sell for less than 1/2 of what the used Nocti's go for today - and the users of high speed 50's would have an alternative - and that segment of the used Nocti market would be gone - and the collectors would by then be clamoring for the 0.95 anyway. Prices would drop substantially.
Will there be a Zeiss/VC "super speed lens" - I dont know, but I assume that it has been considered - but with sales probably lingering in the 2-400/year after the initial "rush" - it takes a long time to recoup investment.
The digital market also changes the need for this kind of lens - better sensors with cleaner high iso outputs would almost eliminate the need for it - and lenses like the 50f1.4 Asph, the ZM 50f1.5 or the Nokton 50f1.5 would be just as useful (and much smaller and probably optically superior too).

[marke]

I'd like to see the 50mm f/0.95 Angenieux in a Leica M mount. I love the bokeh of Angenieux lenses.

Al, I had never heard of these lenses until your post. So I did a search and read a bit about their history. I find it amazing that there were some "modest" Kodak cameras manufactured where Kodak apparently never placed much importance in this lens while marketing the cameras.

[Goldorak]

This angenieux 0.95 has about the ugliest bokeh I've ever seen, and I doubt I'm being subjective here. I mean it's UGLY.

Look here (http://cgi.ebay.com/ANGENIEUX-50mm-f0-95-M1-fit-Leica-M-50-0-95-noctilux_W0QQitemZ270313289900QQcmdZViewItemQQptZC amera_Lenses?hash=item270313289900&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14&_trkparms=72%3A1205%7C66%3A2%7C65%3A12%7C39%3A1%7C 240%3A1318%7C301%3A1%7C293%3A1%7C294%3A50)

[WoolenMammoth]

most everyone grew up watching movies that were shot with Angenieux lenses. Amazing, amazing, amazing lenses. Would be truly wonderful to have that design available for a rangefinder.

[35mmdelux]

I feel the same way as you do, Paul. The nocti is just too big for me. After all, I want to keep my RF smaller than my DSLR! And after reading a similar thing about the Summilux, I decided on one (50/1.4) myself. Now I just wish I could afford a 35/1.4 too.

Marke,
The 35/1.4 ASPH was the single most best lens I ever purchased. I shoot mostly with the 35 so having a fast one was the way to go. In hindsight Im glad I got it.

The Noct -- I think Id prefer to shoot 50/1.2 Hexanon. This lens looks pretty sweet and has great bokeh according to its shooters. And, it costs less than half of the Noct. But for incremental increase might as well stay with the Summilux, a lens for all occasions.

[maddoc]

I check Ebay from time to time and in the last two month, three Noctilux lenses were sold in the range $3.300 - $3.500 and some more for about $4.000. On the other hand used Hexanon 50/1.2 are in the level of $2.200 on the big auction site.

From the recent price development, I see the Noctilux (used) more in the price region of a mint 6bit coded 50 Summilux ASPH, still a little more expensive but getting close. When the new Noctilux ASPH will hit the shelves it will influence the market for used old Noctilux lenses more (either prices go up OR down) than the recession we have now, IMHO.

[whickus]

This angenieux 0.95 has about the ugliest bokeh I've ever seen, and I doubt I'm being subjective here. I mean it's UGLY.

man, that is hideous. looks like someone took it apart and put the elements back in the wrong order.

[Chriscrawfordphoto]

The current Noctilux is the 1975 replacement of the Noctilux 50f1.2 It remained virtually unchanged from 1975 to 2008. The production was always small, one figure I heard bandied about some years ago was "around 200 a year" which would give us a figure of 6600-7000 in total production. There were some of these lenses fitted to measuring devices and cameras for CT screens and they might account for some more lens-heads produced.
What is important here is the fact that it was an old design, but apart from the Nikon F1.1, the Canon f1.2, Fuji's 50f1,2 and some very low production runs of fast lenses (Zunow's 50mm f1.1) from other manufacturers, it was the only game in town by 1975. It was always a premium priced lens and in 1975 it was quite sensational. Some people love it, others could'nt care less. I have had 5 of them over the last 33 years + a 50f1.2 Noctilux before that. It become a legend and virtually every M user wanted one, even if it was for a brief time. It is difficult to use well, it is large and truth be told (from my own point of view) results could be called uneven.
Most Noctiluxes go through more owners than just about any other piece of optical glass. It has become a "rite of passage" for M users. You buy it, shoot with it and after a while resell it to the next M-use who is convinced that it will make him/her a great shooter!!!! The price reflects this status - not the volume nor the quality of the image! I know of a couple of shooters who has done incredible stuff with noctiluxes - and i have also seen some of the worsts print ever done with by proud, new owners!
Around 6-7000 of them out there is a large "pool" and, in todays market. there will probably be a price adjustment. The "must have the latest" will splurge on the 0.95/50 and once that one is freely available, even more f1/50's will show up as used. If someone (Zeiss/Cosina) come up with a modern, computer designed, modern glass and coatings etc 50mm f1.1 of 1,2 - it would most likely outperform the original Noctilux and sell for less than 1/2 of what the used Nocti's go for today - and the users of high speed 50's would have an alternative - and that segment of the used Nocti market would be gone - and the collectors would by then be clamoring for the 0.95 anyway. Prices would drop substantially.
Will there be a Zeiss/VC "super speed lens" - I dont know, but I assume that it has been considered - but with sales probably lingering in the 2-400/year after the initial "rush" - it takes a long time to recoup investment.
The digital market also changes the need for this kind of lens - better sensors with cleaner high iso outputs would almost eliminate the need for it - and lenses like the 50f1.4 Asph, the ZM 50f1.5 or the Nokton 50f1.5 would be just as useful (and much smaller and probably optically superior too).

Tom in your list of faster than f1.4 50mm lenses, you left out all the 50/1.2 lenses made for SLRs by Nikon, Canon, Olympus, and Minolta. How do these compare to the rangefinder high speed 50s? I've never used any of these lenses but the photos I've seen posted online look to me like most of the SLR lenses have similar image characteristics (Bokeh, etc) to the SLR 50/1.4 lenses, while the rangefinder ones like the Noctilux and the Canon .95 have a different look to the images.

[marke]

This angenieux 0.95 has about the ugliest bokeh I've ever seen, and I doubt I'm being subjective here. I mean it's UGLY.

Look here (http://cgi.ebay.com/ANGENIEUX-50mm-f0-95-M1-fit-Leica-M-50-0-95-noctilux_W0QQitemZ270313289900QQcmdZViewItemQQptZC amera_Lenses?hash=item270313289900&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14&_trkparms=72%3A1205%7C66%3A2%7C65%3A12%7C39%3A1%7C 240%3A1318%7C301%3A1%7C293%3A1%7C294%3A50)

Yes, it IS ugly. Is it possible this is due to the lens being designed for B&W rather than color?

[Al Kaplan]

The lens is designed for motion picture cameras which are 18x24mm frame size, not 24x36mm. The central part of those pictures is better than the edges, but bokeh is in the eyes of the beholder. I used to have a 100mm f/2 Angenieux, also a MP lens, custom mounted for Pentacon-six, which is a much bigger format than it was designed for, and it exhibited very similar bokeh. Unfortunately the lens was stolen, but while I had it I made a lot of money with it. I never had an art director say "Ewww, yucky bokeh!"

[dave lackey]

Well, let's see...the OP wonders if the recession will lower prices on the Noctilux?

As much as I love seeing images from those with the Nocti lens...a lower price induced by the recession is of no consequence to me. I would be happy to just to be able to have transportation again. Let alone buy the groceries. I guess what I am saying is, a $3,000 lens versus a $6,000 lens is not even a dream since, well, you know...

So, do I think the recession will lower prices? No...not really...I think an extravagance like a very expensive lens will sell to those who can afford it anyway. The higher prices will fluctuate depending on supply and demand but for the average unemployed low life like myself, we can only admire the images posted here! And that ain't bad! :D

[kevin m]

People are losing their houses because they're worth less than what they owe the bank and people here think a silly lens is recession-proof? Wow.

Here's how it will pan out, I think: Denial. Denial, denial, denial. Following the denial comes Panic. Panic, panic, panic. After the panic come the bargains.

What speculation brings up, panic brings down.

[Gumby]

What speculation brings up, panic brings down.

That's what I'm holding out for. Someday I'll get a Noctilux for $900... and then I might even consider getting a Leica body to go with it. :D

[Turtle]

If in the current climate a competitor comes out, it will surely make for some drops. The Noct allegedly has a unique signature and so I am of the opinion that some would continue to strive for the Noct in the belief that its cult qualities would make their pics better. However, as happened with the CV Nocton 35 1.2, cheaper lenses can have a signature people are just as passionate about. If CV could produce a 50 1.0 or 1.1 with that sort of signature then the Noct would lose two of its major virtues (speed and stand alone signature). Personally, I think that if I cannot take the pic I want with a 1.4 Lux or 1.5 Nocton, there is something wrong with me...

I think it will drop, but not as much as people hope. It will always be a piece of history, rare and impart a certain look (and teh emergence of a CV f1.0 lens will still hve people preferring the Leica look even if the two are proven to be completely indistinguishable). Some Leica buyers are not serious users anyway (hence the plethora of BP M bodies (referred to as 'my user') supposedly bought 4 or 5 years ago that do not have a single scratch of rub on whatsoever. There are enough to prevent Noct prices plummeting regardless of what happens. Look at it this way, despite the (according to many) BEAUTIFUL wide open bokeh of the new 35 summarit, the V4 is priced in line with unicorn horn... and the V2 and V3 are routinely offered for about the same as the Summarit with the 15% discount deducted. Its hilarious. If something is not 'hard to get hold of' some think it cannot be as 'good' as something that you have to do ebay single combat to get. I have seen loads of shots that tell me the summarit is (IMO) the new Bokeh King (and FAR better built) yet people are paying more for ropey 25 year old V4s by a mile. (I think the summarit looks better at 2.5 than the cron at f2!) I suspect such factors will keep the Noctilux from falling too far.

[WoolenMammoth]

Some Leica buyers are not serious users anyway (hence the plethora of BP M bodies (referred to as 'my user') supposedly bought 4 or 5 years ago that do not have a single scratch of rub on whatsoever.


best observation on rff ever.

nice post :)