View Full Version : Film body value, post-M8?
matt fury
06-09-2006, 14:34
I know it would be pure speculation at this point, but I'm interested in hearing what everyone thinks the value of film M bodies will be like once the M8 comes out. My guess is that there will be a large amount of M6s and 7s hitting the market as people try to raise money to buy M8s. What do you guys think?
Their value will remain the same. It’s the purchase price that will change.
I appreciate your thougts Matt, an interreting point. All speculation though.
For me I'll be keeping my camera, so the residual value post M8 is not an issue. I guess that a lot of M owners will feel the same. The market is driven by supply and demand so if the hordes of M owners sell the film bodies then the market value will initially fall with bargains a plenty fot the buyer.
Will I get an digital M? Well I have a lot and I really mean a lot of saving to do first. Will I sell my M? Not a chance in my universe unless times get really hard. In which case the digital M becomes a mute point.
You'll see an influx of used Ms, especially M7s, as some people sell their analog camera or a portion of their film equipment to fund their plunge into the digital world. You may also see a bunch of used 35mm lenses come on the market because of the 1.33 crop factor on the digital M. Used 28mm lenses may be quickly gobbled up.
I do expect, however, a high percentage of those M users who go for the M8 to also retain a film M, at least initially, but maybe always.
I believe the M8 will be a good seller, but their will be a whole bunch of M users who will continue to use film and don't want to go digital. All those MP and M6 and earlier users who appreciate the mechanical nature of the M may continue to use their M as long as film and film processing is available, which will probably still be a very long time.
One of the reasons I got into Leica rangefinders 15 years ago was because of their simplicity and mechanical and durable nature. Some day I may go digital, but it won't be next year. And I believe their are a lot of folks who view the situation like I do.
I also anticipate the M8 really hurting new M7 or MP sales.
I think the price of M3s, mint condition, with serial numbers starting at 116, will fall to zero. Please sell me yours now for $75.00---:-)
Paul
Their value will remain the same. It’s the purchase price that will change.
That's a good one, Stewart :)
btw, anyone have an M4 or M5 for sale?? :D
I know it would be pure speculation at this point, but I'm interested in hearing what everyone thinks the value of film M bodies will be like once the M8 comes out. My guess is that there will be a large amount of M6s and 7s hitting the market as people try to raise money to buy M8s. What do you guys think?
humanized_form
06-09-2006, 17:31
i am selling my Panasonic LC-1 digicam and maybe some other stuff to help finance a M8. however i would never sell my M7 to finance a digital camera. i think the analog and digital M's will be a great combo.
even when i get an M8 i still plan to shoot slide film as long as i can get it processed same day. i feel lucky that there are still a few places in DC that do three hour turnaround.
I hope a lot of people start selling off their m7's, make it a lot easier for me to get my hands on a good 58 one I hope.
I don't know about the film bodies but I'd be real hesitant about buying a Digilux 2 right now. That''s where I think you'll see a price drop.
I've noticed a general increase in the number of Ms up for sale recently and also other film bodies. It may be that those who are thinking of going down the digital M route are already shifting stuff before any price impact actually hits. Personally I'll be keeping my film stuff - I've already been down the digital route (and still am) and I like film more (but not the hybrid workflow) - there's just something special about it.
i wouldn't be surprised if film body prices went down. it happened to every other camera marque.
spysmart
06-10-2006, 05:22
Personally I'll be keeping my film stuff - I've already been down the digital route (and still am) and I like film more (but not the hybrid workflow) - there's just something special about it.
I totally agree ... hours spent scanning and retouching is not at all enjoyable time.
While darkroom time is very therapeutic and rewarding.
Long term M8/MD for color and M6 for B&W.
The money I don't spend on a 50 1.4ASPH and a second M6 body will eventually contribute to a M8 on which I can use my existing 35 1.4ASPH as a standard lens.
I was up at ffordes a few months ago - their shelves are bowed under the weight of unwanted M2s, M3s and Hasselblads ( all at all time low prices). But classic M6s are in short supply, so should hold their prices over time.
shutterflower
06-10-2006, 05:24
Sparrow is a genius.
Price will decrease, value will remain the same!
I think a lot depends on how quickly Leica can meet the demand for the M8 and what the initial reports are regarding its features and performance, such as noise issues at and above ISO 400 and vignetting. If Leica can only trickle out M8 bodies for the first year, that will slow the dumping of film bodies and keep the supply and prices even. Likewise if reports are that people are unhappy with the image quality for b&w in low light, many people may opt to keep at least one film body. And I think that if as I predict, Leica discontinues production of the M7 within 6 months to a year after the launch of the M8, its used prices will stabilize. Likewise, even if Leica keeps the MP in production for another few years, due to its exceedingly high and ever-increasing price, the prices of used mechanical Leicas will also remain fairly level. When you'll see a real drop in film Leica bodies is when there is a good supply of used and demo M8 bodies in the $2500-3000 range.
When you'll see a real drop in film Leica bodies is when there is a good supply of used and demo M8 bodies in the $2500-3000 range.
Now you're talking, an M8 for $2500! :D
Gabriel M.A.
06-10-2006, 09:37
I'll give you $100 and two toasters for your valueless film Leicas. OK, three toasters (and I mean the plain bread kind).
I think that the film M bodies will continue to devaluate a bit faster than before (five years ago
a M3 or M2 would have gone for a thousand bux, now you can have one for 500 bux). The introduction of M8 will cause film based leitz M body to be ignored for their digital counterpart. And maybe one day I'll have that black enamel M3 I want so bad!
anselwannab
06-10-2006, 10:27
Did the RD-1 hurt Leica prices, or even Bessa prices, or keep Zeiss from bringin out the IKON? I know it isn't an apples to apples comparo, but I don't see people dumping their M5-M7s for the M*, unless they are seriuosly strapped for cash.
I think the bigger issues is, can Leica get new people into the RF world with this camera. If we just get incestuous marriages of film RFs for dRFs, that really doesn't grow the market. At $5000 (?) for the M8, I don't see people switching from dSLRs.
For the long term viability of dRF and RF in general, I think you have to make a better value proposition than the M8. We need a sub $2000 dRF, even if it is a generation behind in sensor technology. If a dRF can offer the compactness of an EVF with the image quality of a dSLR with out much of a price premium, that is the sweet spot.
Mark
I hope a lot of people start selling off their m7's, make it a lot easier for me to get my hands on a good 58 one I hope.Exactly! I'm hoping the price goes through the floor so I can buy lots of M7s... ;)
I'm wondering if I should sell my M6 right now to get maximum value for it. Then pick one up for cheap after the M8 comes out?
I'm wondering if I should sell my M6 right now to get maximum value for it. Then pick one up for cheap after the M8 comes out?
:D :D :D :D :D :D :D I've heard of people selling Leica's short, but never in the literal sense :D :D :D :D :D
Just my $.02, but I really don't think that you will see a glut of film Ms come up for sale soon. I do think that people with multiple M6, M6ttl, M7, or MP bodies may drop down to one film body. Does that represent a huge glut on the market or a major price change, probably not.
I sold my spare M5 body recently, but still plan to keep my other M5 and MP.
Best,
Ray
Nikon Bob
06-11-2006, 10:17
Did the RD-1 hurt Leica prices, or even Bessa prices, or keep Zeiss from bringin out the IKON? I know it isn't an apples to apples comparo, but I don't see people dumping their M5-M7s for the M*, unless they are seriuosly strapped for cash.
I think the bigger issues is, can Leica get new people into the RF world with this camera. If we just get incestuous marriages of film RFs for dRFs, that really doesn't grow the market. At $5000 (?) for the M8, I don't see people switching from dSLRs.
For the long term viability of dRF and RF in general, I think you have to make a better value proposition than the M8. We need a sub $2000 dRF, even if it is a generation behind in sensor technology. If a dRF can offer the compactness of an EVF with the image quality of a dSLR with out much of a price premium, that is the sweet spot.
Mark
I would agree with what you have said. The RD1 should have been that sub $2000 IMHO but it was priced wrong and has had QC issues added to it's rep to boot, rightly or wrongly. Unfortunately it looks like the market has spoken and I am still waiting for a dRF in that range. If the RD1 had of created a whole new market for dRFs then it would have been easier for Leica by having an enviroment/market already established for Leica to bring their M8 into. I am still hoping that the M8 will be profitable and encourage a sub $2000 dRF to appear. I think it would have been so much easier the other way round though.
Nikon Bob
amateriat
06-11-2006, 11:47
I think the bigger issues is, can Leica get new people into the RF world with this camera. If we just get incestuous marriages of film RFs for dRFs, that really doesn't grow the market. At $5000 (?) for the M8, I don't see people switching from dSLRs. Mark
Assuming there aren't any major teething problems with the initial run, I think the demand for the M8 will certainly be greater than Leica can handle. I'm also predicting that a sizeable percentage of M8 buyers will be comprised of people who either left the RF fold for SLRs eons ago, or never entertained the idea of shooting with a serious RF until now. I can think of more than a few PJs who are seriously champing at the bit for an M8 or two in place of (or at least alongside) their Dreadnaught pro dSLRs. And, what's 5k for a pro digital body these days? Perversely, Canon and Nikon have if anything made the high-end digital frontier somewhat safer for Leica to enter from a price standpoint, at least in my opinion. Five grand for a digital M doesn't sound as outrageous as it might have at one time, especially compared to the price of a late-model D1 or 1D (funny how the names of these cameras start running into each other).
Not that I touch this crazy-expensive digital body stuff, mind you. ;)
- Barrett
PetarDima
06-11-2006, 13:00
I think a lot depends on how quickly Leica can meet the demand for the M8 and what the initial reports are regarding its features and performance, such as noise issues at and above ISO 400 and vignetting. If Leica can only trickle out M8 bodies for the first year, that will slow the dumping of film bodies and keep the supply and prices even. Likewise if reports are that people are unhappy with the image quality for b&w in low light, many people may opt to keep at least one film body. And I think that if as I predict, Leica discontinues production of the M7 within 6 months to a year after the launch of the M8, its used prices will stabilize. Likewise, even if Leica keeps the MP in production for another few years, due to its exceedingly high and ever-increasing price, the prices of used mechanical Leicas will also remain fairly level. When you'll see a real drop in film Leica bodies is when there is a good supply of used and demo M8 bodies in the $2500-3000 range.
Noise - above ISO 400!!!!!! Who will give thousands of dollars for that bodY :bang:
anselwannab
06-11-2006, 14:01
Barrett,
I agree with your points about people coming back. I read in some semi-mainstream magazine about the PJs that followed around the 04 pres election here and the cameras they used. One of them stated that film was too slow logistically, a dSLR was too big, and what he really wanted was a digital RF camera. I think they were more of a writer and photographer, or at least a writer who wanted to document things.
Hopefully as sensor technology advanced slow down, the risk of brining out a dRF will be less. I still have hopes for Nikon, to bring back the nostalgia and their hey-day, and maybe even Sony. Canon is so high-tech, I'd hate to see what they would bring out. Sony may be a problem because they always use their own propietary formats, what a pain.
Mark
I don't know about the film bodies but I'd be real hesitant about buying a Digilux 2 right now. That''s where I think you'll see a price drop.
My wife has laid claim to the Digilux2. I think a fair number will remain in the family. Also, the number of M8 buyers that already own and will sell a Digilux2 cannot be that large, seeing that used Digilux2's are very rare at the moment.
Noise - above ISO 400!!!!!! Who will give thousands of dollars for that bodY :bang:
Not such an issue as one would think- simply buy a Noctilux :D. And people do use 800 ISO film - horrible noise :( , still,film bodies get sold... ;)
I am convinced the M8 will be relatively noisy at high ISO as there seems to be a tradeoff between "film-look" and ISO noise, generated, no doubt by the presence of high filtration in front of the sensor with CMOS sensors and high in-camera noise reduction. Leica will surely go for pictorial impact and will no doubt be hammered in reviews and forums for "noise issues" I, for one, prefer to do my noise reduction myself in the computer.
Les Lammers
06-12-2006, 05:12
The DM will sell well but not to many 'average shooters'. Do the math and see what the total cost will be to get the body and new lenses due to the crop factor.
I think sales of new M's will drop as the price rises and used will hold their value.
It's all speculation.
The DM will sell well but not to many 'average shooters'. Do the math and see what the total cost will be to get the body and new lenses due to the crop factor..
Hmmm, ok, I'm no mathmetician but I'm decent at arithmetic: Many average shooters like myself have a 21mm, which is (ignoring the collector's item Hologon) the widest lens Leica makes and so far no confirmed upcoming release of anything wider. To recapture the 21mm fov would take a 16mm lens, so basically at present that means a 15mm Voitlander, which isn't really very expensive. In fact I already have one and like the fov on film, so for me I'd need the Voitlander 12mm, which, whadda you know? I picked one up used cheap when everyone was still saying Leica would never make a digital M. As to the cost of the body, well, a roll of 36-exp Provia costs me $4.25 roughly from B&H, and un-mounted E6 processing costs me $7.50, or $11.75 total per roll. So if I shoot 10 rolls/month, by the end of the first year I'd have saved the difference between a new M8 and a new M7. By the second year I'd be down to the cost of a used M7, by the third year I'd have less in the M8 than it would cost to get a beater M4-2.
I, for one, prefer to do my noise reduction myself in the computer.
To that I'd say garbage in, garbage out.
I'd much rather have the M8 produce clean images and should I want, add the noise in post to mimic various film brand.
The M8 better be at least as clean as the RD-1.
I think the M8 will pique the interest in the Digilux2. A 28 - 90 f2 zoom at less price than just a decent lens - the M8 is the defibrilator the Digilux needs.
John Camp
06-12-2006, 16:35
>>"I'm interested in hearing what everyone thinks the value of film M bodies will be like once the M8 comes out."
While they'll still retain value, you probably wouldn't want one. :D
I think the M8 will pique the interest in the Digilux2. A 28 - 90 f2 zoom at less price than just a decent lens - the M8 is the defibrilator the Digilux needs.
The Digilux2 would need exhumation, not defibrillation. Panasonic killed it dead and buried it alongside its fraternal twin the LC1. And I can't see how a 10MP 1.33-crop rangefinder camera would somehow change anyone's perspective on a 5MP noisy-P/S-size-chip camera with manual focus control but an EVF that makes it all but useless as anything but an AF camera. Just my opinion, but for Leica's sake I hope their marketing people do their darndest to perceptually distance the M8 from the badge-engineered Panasonics.
You've just made clear you've never used a Digilux 2, Ben
To that I'd say garbage in, garbage out.
I'd much rather have the M8 produce clean images and should I want, add the noise in post to mimic various film brand.
The M8 better be at least as clean as the RD-1.
You mean the small processor and limited software in the camera would do a better job than a (hopefully) powerful PC? Because that is how digital camera's reduce noise and produce their so-called clean images, except for Canon, who add a piece of matte glass in front of the sensor as well.
The M8 will be a raging success and demand will far outstrip supply. Zeiss will create a 12 MP competitor for 2/3 the price and Cosina will produce the same for half the price of the M8. The move to digital will be unstoppable. The film market will take a significant hit and the last of the major players will bow out leaving only low volume specialists selling film at $25 a roll. Commercial labs will become a rare breed further impacting E6 and C41 sales and eventually the only film you'll get will be B&W in limited ranges. Chemicals and paper will become harder to find and film scanners will be a thing of the past. Effectively your film camera will be worthless, except as a paper weight.
Its being so cheerful that keeps me going :D
Way too late in the game for the M8 to have an real effect on the price of film cameras. People now buy and use Leica film cameras because that is what they want to use. Period. A very few pros who see their RF cameras as "only a tool" may thin out their M body inventory for sound fiscal reasons. A few others might do the same simply to put the M8 in reach of their budget. A few of us might get lucky.... but I ain't holding my breath.
Minox addicts generaly agree that the mithical "digital Minox the same size as an EC" would only make them want one too (as in "also") and not instead of. Some relevence, after all Leica did buy Minox. Credit card digitals skimmed the cream off the Minox market years ago, and yet you can still plunk down $1,295.00 for a brand new TLX.
Leica M series I believe may have a somewhat stronger fan base than Mino 8x11...
You mean the small processor and limited software in the camera would do a better job than a (hopefully) powerful PC? Because that is how digital camera's reduce noise and produce their so-called clean images, except for Canon, who add a piece of matte glass in front of the sensor as well.
It is one thing to produce clean images which look obviously that it has gone thru an in-camera noise reduction. I don't want that either. However, you can't rip on Canon's clean images because it is significantly cleaner than anything out there and whatever noise reduction it applies, it does not destroy the image details. I want the M8 to perform like the Canon rather than the DMR on noise reduction.
Les Lammers
06-13-2006, 10:08
I think the M8 will pique the interest in the Digilux2. A 28 - 90 f2 zoom at less price than just a decent lens - the M8 is the defibrilator the Digilux needs.
I have the DMC LX-1. It is my digi M. Lotsa camera for the $$$ IMHO. I'll keep it till it dies.
You've just made clear you've never used a Digilux 2, Ben
Actually I bought one from KEH and returned it at the end of the 14-day grace period. The images weren't bad, just not better than any other 5MP digital I could borrow. The EVF was exasperating and totally unusable for manually focusing. As I recall it had some kind of magnification function but that was slow and also not very reliable. There was also the issue of the increased DOF over the same effective focal range on even a 1.6x digital slr, which I didn't mention before. Great sometimes but not when I wanted the subject to pop from the background. So yes I did use one, what I've made clear, hopefully, is how unpleasant the experience was, and hopefully none of those shortcomings will be present with the M8.
ChrisPlatt
06-13-2006, 15:46
MP's will go for $10 each, M7's will be 3/$20.
"Excelsior, you fathead!"
-Chris-
Most of us using film today are using it because we love the look of film. Ohave a car load of canon 1DsII eqiopment and L lenses that I use in my business so it's not like I cna't have film and digital. I use film because it has the look I like and I love the process of making images with film. My guess is that there will be little effect on film and camera prices. I just purchased two new a la carte MP's because i think Leica will sooner than later discontinue the M film bodies and then the price will climb through the roof. Look at the price of prints from any famous photographer when they die. My Ansel Adams primts jumped by a factor of more than 100X when he died.
http://www.photo.net/photos/X-Ray
Actually I bought one from KEH and returned it at the end of the 14-day grace period. The images weren't bad, just not better than any other 5MP digital I could borrow. The EVF was exasperating and totally unusable for manually focusing. As I recall it had some kind of magnification function but that was slow and also not very reliable. There was also the issue of the increased DOF over the same effective focal range on even a 1.6x digital slr, which I didn't mention before. Great sometimes but not when I wanted the subject to pop from the background. So yes I did use one, what I've made clear, hopefully, is how unpleasant the experience was, and hopefully none of those shortcomings will be present with the M8.
Your experience totaly is opposed to a number of reports on this forum and the user reports on DPreview, and indeed my own experience. It just goes to show, I guess, that all human beings are not equal, nor all camera's and that you and this camera were not made for one another. I 'd say an early divorce was indeed the right solution in your case.
I have the much lesser FZ3 non slr lumix relative, and find it quite usable, i prefer film, but the tiff images and highest level .jpg files get good reviews for a digital camera.
I think the challenge with the m8 will be that it will always be lagging in the leading edge price/performance/revisions that canon, nikon, sony and others are very good at. I seriously have doubts that they (or anyone) can pull this off without the help of a Panasonic, etc. type of company to partner with.
Actually I bought one from KEH and returned it at the end of the 14-day grace period. The images weren't bad, just not better than any other 5MP digital I could borrow. The EVF was exasperating and totally unusable for manually focusing. As I recall it had some kind of magnification function but that was slow and also not very reliable. There was also the issue of the increased DOF over the same effective focal range on even a 1.6x digital slr, which I didn't mention before. Great sometimes but not when I wanted the subject to pop from the background. So yes I did use one, what I've made clear, hopefully, is how unpleasant the experience was, and hopefully none of those shortcomings will be present with the M8.
Your experience totaly is opposed to a number of reports on this forum and the user reports on DPreview, and indeed my own experience.
Kind of makes me wonwder why then did Panasonic discontinue it rather than just pop a higher-mp chip in it and give it a new nomenclature? I'm thinking maybe give it another try, but after all 5MP in a sub-APS-C chip is only capable of so much, even with a Leica lens and a red dot on the front helping out.
As far as I know they tooled up for a limited run and when it was finished it was finished.
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