View Full Version : In all the excitement....
The last financial report of Leica seems to have escaped notice. It paints the picture of a company that is slowly finding its feet again. A very interesting point is, that the price increases in the USA have not hurt sales there at all, rather the opposite.
Quote:
Leica Camera Group, Solms, has closed fiscal year 2005/2006 (FY end 31 March) with sales of € 106.7 million. This is 15.9 % above the previous year’s figure of € 92.1 million. The earnings before income and taxes which have been adjusted for restructuring expenses have improved from € –10.6 million to € 0.6 million compared to the previous year, mainly as a result of increased sales. At the same time the Group net loss has decreased from last year’s € 18.1 million to € 9.2 million in fiscal year 2005/2006. The Group net loss of the previous year includes a loss of € 1.9 million from abandoned lines of business.
System cameras sales have risen by 12.2 % to € 34.5 million. With the LEICA DIGITAL-MODUL-R a digital product contributed to sales in this product range for the first time. Compact camera sales, particularly of digital models, have risen by 6.6 % to € 16.9 million. In the Leica sports optics range a growth by 20.5 % to € 36.4 million has been registered, in particular with regard to binoculars with integrated laser rangefinding. Slide projectors sales have suffered a further decline by 19.0 % to € 1.8 million.
International sales have increased by 20.1 % compared to the previous year’s figures and amount currently to € 86.4 million or 80.9 % of total sales. For the first time the US market is the Group’s most important individual market with sales of € 26.2 million or 24.6 % of total sales. With sales of € 20.4 million or 19.1 % of total sales the slower growing German market still remains an important market for Leica Camera Group.
In fiscal year 2005/2006 earnings before income and taxes (EBIT) improved from € –14.7 million to € –6.2 million. The income from the write-back of provisions and valuation allowances (€ 2.4 million) had a positive effect on the total result. Restructuring expenses burden the FY result with € 6.8 million compared to € 4.0 million in FY 2004/2005. The net interest income which is negative due to the continuing high drawing on credit lines developed from € –2.4 million in the previous year to € –2.8 million.
For the first time the financial statements were prepared according to the international IFRS standard. The figures for the previous year have been calculated according to the same standard to facilitate comparability. Hence they differ from the previously published figures which were calculated according to HGB (German Commercial Code).
But I think they need the M8 to succeed. Desperately.
Mackinaw
06-06-2006, 02:42
But I think they need the M8 to succeed. Desperately.
No doubt there's a lot of interest in the M8. Take a look at the hits this new M8 forum has generated, over 10,000 views in less than a week.
Leica's still got it guys.
Jim Bielecki
John Camp
06-06-2006, 05:37
No doubt there's a lot of interest in the M8. Take a look at the hits this new M8 forum has generated, over 10,000 views in less than a week.
Leica's still got it guys.
Jim Bielecki
Yeah, but most of that traffic was probably generated by about 200 guys. I hit it about 30 times myself. :p
......
But I think they need the M8 to succeed. Desperately.
With continiuing negative EBITDA not only do they need the M8 to "succeed", they need it to be successful in order for them to "survive".
My point has been that the M8 will provide a short to mid-term solution for Leica since it will exploit a pent-up demand from loyal customers finally realizing their desire to shoot digital deluxe.
Of course, it will be up to Leica to ensure it can maintain sufficient production capacity to meet this pent-up demand.
Even if they do, the problem for them will be what to do for an "encore" once the first wave of enthusiasm and purchases wanes.
My guess is that this move should enable them to clean-up their balance sheet and return them to a modest level of profitability whereupon they become an attractive take-over candidate for a larger manufacturer capable to maintaining a high-end, low sales volume luxury brand.
Remember, Leica is now controlled by a private equity investment group. At some point (a year or two if the M8 is successful?) they will look to realize on their investment.
Well, they will have clean digital lineup in the digital P&S and S-system in cooperation with Panasonic, the M-system and R-system. In addition the last analog camera's on the market (well not quite-but nearly) in the form of M a-la-carte and R-bodies and a supply of lens expertise to third parties. Then of course the binoculars and other optical systems. All in all it looks like a well-structured product line to me.
Well, they will have clean digital lineup in the digital P&S and S-system in cooperation with Panasonic, the M-system and R-system. In addition the last analog camera's on the market (well not quite-but nearly) in the form of M a-la-carte and R-bodies and a supply of lens expertise to third parties. Then of course the binoculars and other optical systems. All in all it looks like a well-structured product line to me.
Agreed, but with salues under EUR200MM they have little room for error. As per the press release above they are still bleeding cash - neither creditors nor investors will have infinite patience.
Their product mix is impressive but remember it is all at the high end leaving little room for error. This is why I think their ultimate goal should be to find a larger corporate "umbrella" - perhaps a Canon etc. - who can provide synergies in areas such as R&D and marketing.
bmattock
06-06-2006, 06:54
Well, they will have clean digital lineup in the digital P&S and S-system in cooperation with Panasonic, the M-system and R-system. In addition the last analog camera's on the market (well not quite-but nearly) in the form of M a-la-carte and R-bodies and a supply of lens expertise to third parties. Then of course the binoculars and other optical systems. All in all it looks like a well-structured product line to me.
Not even close. The digital market is not the market Leica knows. Product turnover is on the order of once a year - max. Leica builds for product turnover of once a decade. How good will that M8 look in a decade? How about those PnS's?
Leica is caught in a classic market pincer, and it is not entirely their fault. Build quality and excellence of execution is their forte - but the market that values digital cameras does not value that. The purchasers of the M8 will be loyalist existing Leica customers - they will not attract new customers, no one will pay $5,000 for a body only that does not even offer what the newest Sony dSLR will in terms of features. And in a year, the M8 will look hopelessly archaic.
Leica had to play this game - their loyalist customers demanded it - but they cannot succeed at it.
They have a better chance to succeed financially by continuing to dilute their brand name by licensing it to Panasonic for further "Leica" dSLR systems that have the Olympus four/thirds mount. It will eventually eat them from the inside out as it destroys the cachet of the brand-name, but it is their only way out.
Best Regards,
Bill Mattocks
Mark Norton
06-06-2006, 09:10
The patient is recovering and I agree that in a couple of years, after the first full year of the M8 being in production and the 4/3 project bearing fruit, lets call it Q2 2008, ACM will be looking to cash in, and Panasonic would look to be the most obvious buyer. The temporary CEO will receive his bonus and go back to Schaffhaussen. In the meantime, we should be very pleased Leica are making progress. Far better that than the company going bust.
Agreed, but with salues under EUR200MM they have little room for error. As per the press release above they are still bleeding cash - neither creditors nor investors will have infinite patience.
Their product mix is impressive but remember it is all at the high end leaving little room for error. This is why I think their ultimate goal should be to find a larger corporate "umbrella" - perhaps a Canon etc. - who can provide synergies in areas such as R&D and marketing.
I agree that is probably what will happen.
John Camp
06-06-2006, 10:09
I thinking going to Canon would kill them -- it's like Jaguar goiing to Ford. They get extra money, but the status starts ebbing away, and you get Jags that have a Taurus front end and mushy suspension and it's called "synergy."
I think Leica may eventually become part of a group of boutique companies: Rolex, Leica, Montblanc, maybe even a fashion house like Hermes --- people who know how to market to a select market. That would be a possibility.
I disagree with Bill about the need to constantly innovate. I think that time is passing, (if it hasn't already passed) for digital cameras. Most digitals, you'll note, are now getting very modest upgrades, if any. Most of the latest D2x upgrade can be done on older cameras via firmware, and the last Canon upgrade that I saw (I'm not totally familiar with the nomenclature, but I think it might have been from a 20D to a 30D (?)) was widely ridiculed as cosmetic more than anything.
For years, one of the great driving forces behind rising computer speed was the games community. But once games got close to real-time speed/appearance, things slowed down. Why have a machine that's twice as fast and costs twice as much if you can't really use the speed? When was the last time that there was a big jump in speeds? We went from 1GhZ to 3GhZ probably three or four years ago; why aren't we at six or nine? The answer, I think, is that computer users are now asking for different qualities.
Same is true with digital cameras. I don't think anybody really gives a rat's ass if Canon goes to 22mp, because it's not that much better than the current 16 -- in fact, quite a few people thought that the 1Ds2 wasn't a hell of a lot better than the original 1Ds, or that the 1Ds@ is any better at all than the 12mp Nikon. The fact is, why pay more for more megapixel's if you can't see an improvement at nomal print sizes? A lot of people won't.
So I wouldn't be surprised if the Leica M8 holds up quite well for six to 10 years, especially given the improvement in post-processing tools. And it has qualities that you won't find in a Canon: smallness and lens speed being two. I think the big DSLRs, which are physical monsters (the Canon body alone weighs 3 pounds or so), are simply for a different kind of photography than rangefinders. I would expect after the original rush of orders, that Leica will be able to build and sell ~5,000+ units a year through the next upgrade...And now that they've gotten the original off the ground, I would expect a full upgrade in ~ five years.
In fact, I see this upgrade thing as an opporunity for Leica, not a problem -- if a guy buys two M3s, why would he ever upgrade? Ony because he gets a GAS attack. But if there's a "real" digital upgrade every five years, you might, over 25 years, have guys who have bought 10 new Leicas, rather than two.
JC
.....I think Leica may eventually become part of a group of boutique companies: Rolex, Leica, Montblanc, maybe even a fashion house like Hermes --- people who know how to market to a select market. That would be a possibility......
JC
Didn't they already try this route? IIRC, Leica was a part of Hermes. Maybe I'm wrong?
bmattock
06-06-2006, 10:49
I disagree with Bill about the need to constantly innovate. I think that time is passing, (if it hasn't already passed) for digital cameras. Most digitals, you'll note, are now getting very modest upgrades, if any. Most of the latest D2x upgrade can be done on older cameras via firmware, and the last Canon upgrade that I saw (I'm not totally familiar with the nomenclature, but I think it might have been from a 20D to a 30D (?)) was widely ridiculed as cosmetic more than anything.
I agree that the companies making the dSLRs are now facing revenue stream problems if they don't start extracting more profit from their cameras on a per unit basis. They are doing as little as they can and still be able to announce something new every six months. Let the naysayers say nay - the market continues to buy every dSLR that is made - none sit on shelves. 30D sucks? So what, they'll sell 'em all. And in the meantime, if they DIDN'T make a 30D, it would be the all-Nikon, all-the-time show. So they had to squeeze one out.
However, the dSLR doesn't drive the market, the PnS does. And they continue to 'innovate' whether anyone thinks that is a good thing or a bad thing. The latest round has already been initiated - 10mp digicams. When Joe Sixpack thinks more mp is better, everybody had best queue up and start cranking them out - the qualities that really count don't matter at whit to market forces.
For years, one of the great driving forces behind rising computer speed was the games community. But once games got close to real-time speed/appearance, things slowed down. Why have a machine that's twice as fast and costs twice as much if you can't really use the speed? When was the last time that there was a big jump in speeds? We went from 1GhZ to 3GhZ probably three or four years ago; why aren't we at six or nine? The answer, I think, is that computer users are now asking for different qualities.
Cell phones, baby. Cell phones. PC's are a maturing market, and yes, digicams will eventually get there. The digicam is nowhere near the maturity as a PC. Think cell phones.
Same is true with digital cameras. I don't think anybody really gives a rat's ass if Canon goes to 22mp, because it's not that much better than the current 16 -- in fact, quite a few people thought that the 1Ds2 wasn't a hell of a lot better than the original 1Ds, or that the 1Ds@ is any better at all than the 12mp Nikon. The fact is, why pay more for more megapixel's if you can't see an improvement at nomal print sizes? A lot of people won't.
A lot of people, perhaps, but not a majority of people. Most Joe and Jill Sixpacks know these things about digicams - 1) more mp is better, 2) longer zoom is better, 3) bigger LCD display is better and 4) smaller camera is better. They don't know optics, they don't know AF speed and shutter lag times, and they could not possibly care less. Ask 'em. They shop for digicams that are CUTE for God's sake. And they buy more cameras than 'we' camera mavens do on a 1000 to 1 ratio.
So I wouldn't be surprised if the Leica M8 holds up quite well for six to 10 years, especially given the improvement in post-processing tools. And it has qualities that you won't find in a Canon: smallness and lens speed being two. I think the big DSLRs, which are physical monsters (the Canon body alone weighs 3 pounds or so), are simply for a different kind of photography than rangefinders. I would expect after the original rush of orders, that Leica will be able to build and sell ~5,000+ units a year through the next upgrade...And now that they've gotten the original off the ground, I would expect a full upgrade in ~ five years.
Leica cannot do a upgrade every five years. Period. They don't work like that, and being German and Leica, they won't. It will destroy them, but they will refuse to rush the job. Good for them, and goodbye to them.
In fact, I see this upgrade thing as an opporunity for Leica, not a problem -- if a guy buys two M3s, why would he ever upgrade? Ony because he gets a GAS attack. But if there's a "real" digital upgrade every five years, you might, over 25 years, have guys who have bought 10 new Leicas, rather than two.
JC
True Leicaphiles upgrade because they can. Because they must. Sure they own two M3's. And one of every stupid LHS-only model and all the rarities, including attachments for looking at flea gonads and so on. So of course they will buy two M8's (one to use, one to keep in the box and protect forever). And then that's it. The world only has so many of these guys.
Non-Leicaphiles won't buy the M8. It is the solution to a problem that no one has.
In five years, when they're writing Leica's post-mortem, they will refer to the 'Ill-fated M8'. The one that Leica had to build, but the one that broke them.
Best Regards,
Bill Mattocks
For years, one of the great driving forces behind rising computer speed was the games community. But once games got close to real-time speed/appearance, things slowed down. Why have a machine that's twice as fast and costs twice as much if you can't really use the speed? When was the last time that there was a big jump in speeds? We went from 1GhZ to 3GhZ probably three or four years ago; why aren't we at six or nine? The answer, I think, is that computer users are now asking for different qualities.
That had other reasons. Number one is that people realized that more GHz don't make a faster PC and Number two that Intel realized they where on the wrong path with their Pentium IV architecture.
The gamers now use multiple grafics cards in their systems, each more expansive than the typical mainboard and processor with which they are used.
The problem with the P IV is that it doesn't scale with frequency but needs lots of power and produces too much heat. A P IV at 3.2GHz can take as much as 140 watt under load but must not be warmer than some 40°C, ever touched a 100 watt light bulb?
Another thing are the 10 to 14 amperes you have to deliver to the processor via the mainboard. Not easy to find materials which can be used in massproduction, are reasonable cheap and don't go up in flames when the user tries to add a couple off layers in photoshop :)
AMD was smarter, their CPUs where as fast as Intels, had 64bit support without sacrificing 32bit speed like Intels top notch Itanium and used less power and produced less heat.
The Penium III based Pentium Mobile processors for the Centrino based Notebooks put a Pentium IV at double the frequency to shame with typical office applications as well as most grafics applications.
AMDs dual core 64bit CPUs are heaven on earth for people doing RAW conversion from dSLR files even with 32bit aplications. Same for videoediting. The memory controller in the CPU is much faster than Intels way of doing it with the P IV.
And yet another reason is the delay of Microsofts Windows Vista, usualy the people are fine with their computers until they get the next release of Windows and Office, then they need double the RAM, double the HD space and double the CPU performance ;)
I have a feeling that the M8 will be a huge success. I also think Leica is smart enough to realize to build it modular; mechanics, shutter module, sensor module and mainboard. Just connect them together. The mechanics and shutter will last a long time and is likely to be more expensive than on any other digital camera. Makes it easier to service, just swap the faulty module and charge the customer (if not under warranty). Also makes the camera have lasting value, something Leica is known for. In 3-5 years you can send it in and have it upgraded to another sensor or more processing power for a (stiff) fee, but it would be worth doing it rather than ditching the whole body.
Leica has had trouble with competetion from their old cameras made over 50 years. I have an M2 and an M4, each cost 1/5 to 1/6 compared to one new body. Why pay full price when I can get the same for far less and also get the vintage feel (provided that I can live without builtin meter)?
The M8 will change this as there is no competetion for it and it will be possible to get even more money out of it in the future, thanks to upgrades and technology advances in sensor and computer power.
The only competition will be from Cosina cameras in various disguises and they compete for the low end of the market. Leica will own their niche market, and I think they have a bright future as a small high end company.
/Håkan
Silva Lining
06-06-2006, 13:00
I think Leica will be OK. I believe that they would be able to beat the sensor wars if they were to offer sensor/software upgrades on a 3 or 5 years basis. For a fee they will upgrade your M8 sensor as technology advances, much as they are offering to upgrade lenses to work with the M8 now.
This, to me, offers a different business model that removes their admittidly niche product from obselecence, albeit at users choice and cost. It offers the build quality and finish for which they are rightly reknowned with the opportunity to upgrade (and to personalise) which offers continued quality in use and exclusivity that their users demand.
Of course, I have no idea if this is what they are planning to do!!
------
edit : great minds think alike! lets hope Leica go down this route - I'd buy one if they did.
Mackinaw
06-06-2006, 13:22
In five years, when they're writing Leica's post-mortem, they will refer to the 'Ill-fated M8'. The one that Leica had to build, but the one that broke them.
They've been writing Leica's epitaph for at least five years now (eavesdrop on LUG if you really want to hear the naysayers in action) and yet they're still in business.
As I mentioned earlier this morning, Jorge started this M8 forum less than a week ago and it already has over 10,000 views. Obviously folks are very interested in ths new camera, which can only bode well for the company and its future.
Jim Bielecki
John Camp
06-06-2006, 15:04
One serious question is, Do any of us know what the **** we're talking about?
That question aside, I would demur from Bill's portrayal of Leica as terminally constipated by pointing out that it still survives, has a new product that is antcipated by a fairly large group of people, and does that while a lot of larger, supposedly tougher camera companies didn't make it. Who would have thought that Mamiya would disappear; six years ago, it owned the working MF market. What I think happened is that for the past 50 years, Leica waddled along, issuing the occasional upgrade, staying small because they didn't much care if they got large. Then, five or six years ago, somebody pressed a gun to their corporate temple and threatened to blow their brains out if they didn't start moving. They started moving. The DMR was actually put together fairly well, and with reasonable speed; lots of people like it. Then the M8 came along, also with a reasonable celerity; I think a five-year upgrade cycle is now within their abilities. Nikon appears to be on a 3-4 year cycle, Canon maybe 3 year, but that will slow.
On a different topic, I just got the Leica Compendium, from Hove, (Has there ever been a Hove book that didn't, in some essential way, really suck?) and there's an unintentionally amusing picture of Leicas being assembled -- by a lady sitting at a desk, with a bunch of screwdrivers and some parts bins, apparently doing them one at a time. I don't know how I *thought* it was done, but that wasn't it...
JC
Silva Lining
06-06-2006, 15:08
One serious question is, Do any of us know what the **** we're talking about?
I can only speak for myself, but I know that sometimes I have absolutely no idea what I am going on about. :)
For years, one of the great driving forces behind rising computer speed was the games community. But once games got close to real-time speed/appearance, things slowed down. Why have a machine that's twice as fast and costs twice as much if you can't really use the speed? When was the last time that there was a big jump in speeds? We went from 1GhZ to 3GhZ probably three or four years ago; why aren't we at six or nine? The answer, I think, is that computer users are now asking for different qualities.
eh... nope, chip makers are going in the multi-core direction as opposed to higher GHZ. It has been shown in recent years it's not a function of the cpu in determining the performance of the computer.
I guess at least the resolution wars are more or less over anyway. In the consumer segment I can't imagine things going beyond 20 MP, and the difference between 10 and 20 MP is really stretching it, since image quality is depending on a lot of other sensor properties besides resolution.
I think Leica did the right thing to get involved rather late, at least with the digital M where there's little competition. Leica buffs would have rejected a three megapixel, crop-1.6 Leica M7-D, but this way, with a range of dedicated lenses, I think the M8 promises somewhat more lasting value. Which is the core of the Leica brand, anyway.
I think Leica did the right thing to get involved rather late, at least with the digital M where there's little competition. Leica buffs would have rejected a three megapixel, crop-1.6 Leica M7-D, but this way, with a range of dedicated lenses, I think the M8 promises somewhat more lasting value. Which is the core of the Leica brand, anyway.
good argument, except that leica didn't get the M involved with digital back in the 3 megapixel days because it was arrogant and did not see the death of film beyond the horizon.
John Camp
06-06-2006, 17:42
"We had a doubling of bus bandwidth about 3 years ago. Clock speeds of
64bit computers are catching up to 32bit computers now. Multi-core is
coming. Nothing has slowed down, computer performance is increasing
steadily..."
But the acceleration is slowing. The first real consumer computer, the TRS80 Model 1, was introduced in 1977 with 4k of ram and mass storage on a cassette deck. Four years later, you could buy an IBM PC with 16K ram expandable to 256k, and up to two floppy drives. That's a hell of a lot bigger jump than going from lots of bandwidth to twice as much in three years...
Computer and cameras are all getting better; but the rate of increase on any given task is slowing...There will not be a camera that is in any objective way "twice as good" as an M8 in the next 5-6 years. And if there is, it'll be so spectacular that not only the Leica, but all film, as well, will be dead as a doorknob.
JC
"We had a doubling of bus bandwidth about 3 years ago. Clock speeds of
64bit computers are catching up to 32bit computers now. Multi-core is
coming. Nothing has slowed down, computer performance is increasing
steadily..."
But the acceleration is slowing. The first real consumer computer, the TRS80 Model 1, was introduced in 1977 with 4k of ram and mass storage on a cassette deck. Four years later, you could buy an IBM PC with 16K ram expandable to 256k, and up to two floppy drives. That's a hell of a lot bigger jump than going from lots of bandwidth to twice as much in three years...
Computer and cameras are all getting better; but the rate of increase on any given task is slowing...There will not be a camera that is in any objective way "twice as good" as an M8 in the next 5-6 years. And if there is, it'll be so spectacular that not only the Leica, but all film, as well, will be dead as a doorknob.
JC
John,
You remind me of ME!
As did I when I "barged in here" a year ago, you just want to convince the rest of us to see the "rightness" of your viewpoints"
It doesn't work here - why not just enjoy your kit - post some W/NW threads and have some fun? :D
good argument, except that leica didn't get the M involved with digital back in the 3 megapixel days because it was arrogant and did not see the death of film beyond the horizon.
Ah- where did you read that? The reason was that they were not satisfied with the quality. As a matter of fact Leica went digital in 1997 with the introduction of scanner-type studio camera's, so it seems fairly certain that they did see the writing on the wall, but wanted to wait with small formats until the digital alphabet was sophisticated enough to spell "film is dead"
petermcwerner
06-07-2006, 09:25
good argument, except that leica didn't get the M involved with digital back in the 3 megapixel days because it was arrogant and did not see the death of film beyond the horizon.
http://www.kefk.net/Fotografie/Kameras/Digital/Anbieter/Leica/S1/Abbildungen/2_392x300.gif
In 1998, Leica introduced the award winning Leica S1 high end digital camera. Leica S1 has a CCD chip with resolution of 5140 s 5140 pixels and 36 bit depth. According to Leica, S1 could create a picture 17" x 17" with dymanic range of 2000:1, rivalling the best of 35mm transparancy. The model was priced at $21,500.
John Camp
06-07-2006, 13:17
"John,
You remind me of ME!
As did I when I "barged in here" a year ago, you just want to convince the rest of us to see the "rightness" of your viewpoints"
It doesn't work here - why not just enjoy your kit - post some W/NW threads and have some fun?"You are wrong there, John. You might have stopped using the
constantly improving computer technology in the form of a fast
computer at home, but not everybody has."
That's a little patronizing, isn't it? I was simply having an amiable disagreement with Bill, in which I think there's about a 40% chance that he's right and I'm wrong; I'm not trying to press anything on anybody, I was just trying to express a viewpoint.
"You are wrong there, John. You might have stopped using the
constantly improving computer technology in the form of a fast
computer at home, but not everybody has."
I really don't have any argument with you; we don't even disagree, although you seem to think so. I am constantly improving my computer tech, and expect to upgrade sometime next year form my present Mac collection to the new Intel Macs. What I was arguing was that the pace of (practical) change has slowed. The arrival of cells phones was a revolution. The addition of cell phone cameras does not compare. The arrival of "Vista" (assuming it ever arrives) will be good, but the change from DOS to Windows was revolutionary. If you get a dual core 64-bit computer, how much faster can you word process? How much faster can you browse the net? Would you believe "no faster?" The arrival of computer word processing and the net were both revolutionary. The arrival of dual-core 64-bit word processing will not be.
The argument that I am making isn't that computers aren't becoming more and more important, and the technology better and better, I'm simply saying that in my lifetime I've seen a large number of technical revolutions -- the arrival of mass-market TV, space travel, desk-top computers, etc. The further refinements of these things do not seem revoutionary; they seem llike refinements.
My point with the digital cameras was that as revolutionary as the first four or five years were -- say, from 1999 to 2004 -- the future is more going to involve refinement than revolution. If Canon goes to 22 mp, does that mean you can't do good work with a 16mp 1DsII? Of course not. The question that started all of this is whether the M8 will be obsolete in a couple of years, if digital cameras will have to turn every two or three years or become obsolete. My view is, "No." I think they have reached a level of refinement where people will use them with satisfaction for much longer than that. I do think that new models will show improvements, just as the M6 had improvements over the M3. But it will be more like that, than, say, the M3 over the Brownie. That was a revolution. From M3 to M6 was refinement.
In this argument, Bill has taken a different position. He is a smart guy and he may be right. I happen to disagree with him on this point, but if I saw him out hitchhiking, I wouldn't try to run him over, at least, not more than once.
JC
"....That's a little patronizing, isn't it? I was simply having an amiable disagreement with Bill, in which I think there's about a 40% chance that he's right and I'm wrong; I'm not trying to press anything on anybody, I was just trying to express a viewpoint.....
JC
John,
If there is anything I can assure you of it is that I was not commening on any discourse you might have with Bill. I never comment on what I do not read! ;)
Ciao.
Let's get along gentlemen
bmattock
06-07-2006, 18:35
Also sprach Zarathustra
Hey, I don't know if that if fair Bill.
I saw a guy same facial hair as in your avatar, leaning back, smoking, driving a pick up this morning.
You have a twin in CT.
bmattock
06-07-2006, 18:43
Hey, I don't know if that if fair Bill.
I saw a guy same facial hair as in your avatar, leaning back, smoking, driving a pick up this morning.
You have a twin in CT.
Boys from Brazil, baby. We're everywhere.
Mark Norton
06-07-2006, 22:20
Gosh, this thread has got pretty heavy and slightly unpleasant.
The Leica M8 is a welcome introduction against a background of total demand for film falling to 1% of its 1998 level in 10 years. The M8 will be a snapshot of current technology, will become outdated quite quickly and value retention will be much less than we are used to.
We're all used to this trend - I have spent far more on laptops over the years than I will ever spend on Leica digital bodies. Those laptops were bought to do a job and more than paid for themselves and I'm quite sure the Leica will be just the same. But whereas those laptops got to the point of being unable to run current "stuff", the M8 will go on producing images which fully exploit my Leica glass for years to come even if there's a replacement which does better.
I'm excited and my lenses are going off to be coded next week. Only one of them, a pre-1992 Summilux 50mm cannot be coded.
petermcwerner
06-08-2006, 03:59
Thank you Mark for bringing this thread back to sense and to a more pleasant disussion.
I'm excited and my lenses are going off to be coded next week.
Mine are all old. I had sold my last M3 and am left with no M body after going first Nikon Reflex then DMR and all-digital. I am excited and ordered an M8 but I want to see the practical results with the lenses I have. I wonder whether I shall still like handling a rangefinder before investing in new glass.
I would be curious to hear if there are many other users like me who had abandoned RF completely and are now thinking of taking the plunge again.
I cannot fail to be surprised by people that will complain bitterly about the writeoff of digital camera's and then go out to collect their new car from the dealer, writing off 5000 Euro in the first ten kilometers....
I would be curious to hear if there are many other users like me who had abandoned RF completely and are now thinking of taking the plunge again.
I think this statement is a much better indicator for Leicas prosperity than any financial statements issued by the company.
Sounds as if they're on the right track and have a product for which there is a strong demand.
I cannot fail to be surprised by people that will complain bitterly about the writeoff of digital camera's and then go out to collect their new car from the dealer, writing off 5000 Euro in the first ten kilometers....
Wasn't that when you mount the license plate?
But I think it just depends on your expectations and how you feel about what you buy and what for.
Not all cars loose value, some rise significantly. And what a Ferrari Enzo is to one person is a Leica MP3 to another.
Buying an expensive camera is a stretch for most of us, even those who earn their money with cameras. Those who use cameras professionaly get their money back with the pictures they sell, but what about all the others?
Most of us don't buy cars for recreational purposes but most of us buy cameras for that reason.
John Camp
06-08-2006, 05:08
Is the lens coding already being done? If so, where can I read about it?
JC
In GERMAN (http://www.leica-camera.com/produkte/msystem/objektive/index.html)
And in ENGLISH (http://www.leica-camera.com/produkte/msystem/objektive/index_e.html)
I'm excited and my lenses are going off to be coded next week. Only one of them, a pre-1992 Summilux 50mm cannot be coded.
I also have the pre-1992 Summilux (I don't understand why it can't be coded, it's the same optics as the 1994+ Summilux), also a vers. III 35 Cron and a vers. I 90 Tele-Elmarit and a 1960s chrome rigid 50 Cron, none of which can be coded. Plus I will need to use my Voitlander 15mm in place of a 21mm, and I have the 12mm to use in place of the 15. The only lenses I have that can be coded are a pre-ASPH 90 Cron and pre-ASPH 21 Elmarit, probably my two least-used lenses. If there's any chance of me being able to afford an M8 it's definitely not if I also have to sell most of my lenses and buy newer ones and then pay to have those coded. So I will wait until someone has tested the same lens with and without coding and reports on just what if any differences can be seen, and whether it isn't possible to perhaps write a Photoshop action for each lens that will do the same thing at zero cost. I owned a rather complete set of non-ROM lenses and an R8 for over a year and found no reason to want to have my lenses converted to ROM. Finally, if I did decide to have my codable lenses coded I would just buy the rear flanges from Leica and screw them on myself. No way I would ship my lenses off and wait a few months to get them back, just to have someone swap rear flanges. I also think it may be possible on the non-codable lenses to have a machine shop mill in the oval recesses and then fill them with paint, so that I could code my E43 50 Lux as an E46 50 Lux. Time will tell. Meantime I'm sitting tight. BTW I also can see no reason why I couldn't use my 135/4 on the M8. Add the 1.25 magnifyer for increased focusing accuracy, and mask off any 135mm accessory finder to match the crop factor (put the camera up on a tripod and compare the captured image on the LCD, or just slap a 180 on an SLR). And BTW Leica says the Visoflex will work on the M8, and obviously those lenses can't be coded through to the camera.
I couldn't agree more about the 135, Ben. But Leica doesn't say it is impossible to use, just inadvisable. As soon as I have my M8 I'll post some 135 shots.
What really puzzles me is why they used a 6bit system for a possible 64 individual identifiers when they could have used a 7, 8, or 9bit system for 128, 256, or 512 different lenses. The 6bit system doesnt give them enough support for the lenses they should encript now! Its hard to see what they were thinking as the cost of additional code is miniscule.
Anyway, its still a good thing since the additional EXIF information won't hurt and if you don't like the in- camera processing, the dots could be disabled by some tape. The reason I mention disabling Leica's attempt at "fixing" lens abberations is that some "cures" my be worse than the disease. For instance, attemps at reducing vignetting WILL increase noise levels in the corners. For most people that is OK but I would like the option of doing it myself in Photoshop or not doing it at all.
Rex
I couldn't agree more about the 135, Ben. But Leica doesn't say it is impossible to use, just inadvisable. As soon as I have my M8 I'll post some 135 shots.
Revised post: they just told me that it is actually impossible to use the 3.4 apo. I'm highly surprised, as this is one of their signature lenses. And it won't stop me trying :bang: :bang: :bang:
Mark Norton
06-08-2006, 07:29
Well, I abandoned rangefinder photography when I abandoned film and only recently got back into it with an R-D1 and love it. Going back to my M6 though and the viewfinder and focussing are rather better than the R-D1 so I'm expecting the M8 to be what my R-D1 is but a more refined implementation - more of the good things (image quality, noise, build quality, viewfinder/rangefinder), less of the bad things (quality control, shutter noise, battery life).
It will surprise me if Leica do not put a manual lens type selection menu in there but it's possible that they've tried doing so and found that if the incorrect corrections are applied (because the user has selected the wrong lens), the results are worse, not better, so will only "risk it" with a coded lens where they can be sure the lens designation is correct.
There's bound to be information published on the net for people to get busy with tape applied to the lens mount to try out the coding to see if it works for them.
There's talk on photo.net about long lead times and the new wide-angle is going to be a 17mm Elmarit which is not even as wide at the 21mm in full frame. Slightly disappointing. They should have gone for 15mm.
Mark Norton
06-08-2006, 08:03
I also have the pre-1992 Summilux (I don't understand why it can't be coded, it's the same optics as the 1994+ Summilux)
The lens mount is different, being fixed from the sides instead of through the back of the lens mount so that may account for it. I'm interested that the optics are the same as the later lens (which I believe ran all the way up to the ASPH version with the built-in lens hood). If so, it will be interesting to find out the code and get busy with the tape. Not sure I'm brave enough to take a dremel to it though.
In case you didn't know, the lens barrel of this lens unscrews, leaving just the lens mount, the depth of field scale and the focussing ring. Around the lens barrel, there's a 14 scribed on it, crossed out and replaced with 13 and it's 13 that appears in tiny digits on the focussing ring, rotated 90% by the meter mark, making the actual focal length 51.3mm.
i sincerely hope that thread on photo.net is mistaken in saying that lead times may be as long as 12 months.
Waiting until 2008 simply isn't a realistic option. I simply can't believe that people would be willing to wait this long to get the camera.
Can anyone confirm that this rumor might have any truth in it?
Revised post: they just told me that it is actually impossible to use the 3.4 apo. I'm highly surprised, as this is one of their signature lenses. And it won't stop me trying :bang: :bang: :bang:
Nor should it. Perhaps they tried it and it loses it's "APO-ness" (CA or purple fringing) so they're trying to discourage people from using it. But there's no way it makes sense that any lens that was calibrated to the M film bodies won't focus properly on the M digital body.
i sincerely hope that thread on photo.net is mistaken in saying that lead times may be as long as 12 months.
Waiting until 2008 simply isn't a realistic option. I simply can't believe that people would be willing to wait this long to get the camera.
I'll probably wait until at least 2010 before getting into digital anyway, so for me it's no problem. Though I have to admit that the Digital M sounds like one of the first "real" digital camera to me. Most decent DSLRs are so big that, if you stack a few on top of each other in an arc, it makes for a really good igloo. Others feel like a toy I wouldn't even give my newborn nephew (I prefer wooden toys anyway). The M8 has the potential to be a mature camera based on a proven design, which would be highly welcome in the digital market as it is now.
Peter.
Bob Ross
06-08-2006, 18:02
i sincerely hope that thread on photo.net is mistaken in saying that lead times may be as long as 12 months.
Waiting until 2008 simply isn't a realistic option. I simply can't believe that people would be willing to wait this long to get the camera.
Can anyone confirm that this rumor might have any truth in it?
I saw that too, Mani and if it is true. Leica needs to release some information for those who want to try for an early delivery. There are open questions here that, while I'm sure Leica did a good job, the answers might not match all indiviual users' needs. By the time 2008 gets here they may have some valid competition to deal with, as well.
acmprojekt
07-07-2006, 04:30
The patient is recovering and I agree that in a couple of years, after the first full year of the M8 being in production and the 4/3 project bearing fruit, lets call it Q2 2008, ACM will be looking to cash in, and Panasonic would look to be the most obvious buyer. The temporary CEO will receive his bonus and go back to Schaffhaussen. In the meantime, we should be very pleased Leica are making progress. Far better that than the company going bust.
Hi Mark, I'm Andreas Kaufmann, managing Director of ACM Projektentwicklung Salzburg, Austria. As ACM Projektentwicklung is owned by the family Kaufmann and is not a Private Equity Fund, a Venture Fund or whatever fund, our intention is a longterm industrial strategy. We want help to create a Leica Camera which is able to produce and sell exciting future products. Good products and satisfied customers enable a good future for Leica.
You're absolutely right, the patient is recovering, and we should not forget that Leica Camera never stopped spending quite a lot of money for research and development.
Contrary to public belief Leica has a track record on digital cameras for ten years, which means the M8 is just a necessary consequence. The M8 will be a superior and unique camera, and there are other interesting things in the pipeline.
Hi Mark, I'm Andreas Kaufmann, managing Director of ACM Projektentwicklung Salzburg, Austria. As ACM Projektentwicklung is owned by the family Kaufmann and is not a Private Equity Fund, a Venture Fund or whatever fund, our intention is a longterm industrial strategy. We want help to create a Leica Camera which is able to produce and sell exciting future products. Good products and satisfied customers enable a good future for Leica.
Welcome to the forum and thank you for your input.
The fact that you yourself post here and in other related forums is very welcome and makes me trust in your dedication to keep Leica Camera as a going concern.
Thank you
Mark Norton
07-07-2006, 06:21
Thank you for contributing Dr Kaufmann. I'm aware that you are Chairman of the Supervisory Board and speak with some authority. I am pleased to hear that you are investing for the long term which is a refreshing contrast to the short-termism of UK investors.
I noticed you referred to the camera as the M8 - I am sure none of us will think you are confiming its name, just using our own shorthand to refer to it!
The camera is going to be a landmark camera and I am looking forward to being at Photokina on 26/9 when, hopefully all will be revealed.
Any predictions on what the damned thing will COST? I'm not about to throw out my M4-2 just yet.
Any predictions on what the damned thing will COST? I'm not about to throw out my M4-2 just yet.
As far as I know the price is 4500 Euro
Mark Norton
07-07-2006, 07:48
There's the psychological barrier of $5000 to beat for the US which would exclude tax. That suggests £3250 in the UK including tax and €4500 in Germany including tax, as Socke says.
Welcom Andreas! We look forward to many informative posts from you to keep this RF community in high spirits.
drmatthes
07-07-2006, 14:02
Off topic:
Bill "bmattock" Mattocks, as you have switched off email/PM, I must send you this telegram.
BILL-STOP-GLAD-YOU-ARE-WITH-US-STOP-JESKO
Off topic:
Bill "bmattock" Mattocks, as you have switched off email/PM, I must send you this telegram.
BILL-STOP-GLAD-YOU-ARE-WITH-US-STOP-JESKO
I would like to second that!
This thread is being hijacked. Read the rules. Stay on topic.
acmprojekt
07-08-2006, 13:03
Thank you for contributing Dr Kaufmann. I'm aware that you are Chairman of the Supervisory Board and speak with some authority. I am pleased to hear that you are investing for the long term which is a refreshing contrast to the short-termism of UK investors.
I noticed you referred to the camera as the M8 - I am sure none of us will think you are confiming its name, just using our own shorthand to refer to it!
The camera is going to be a landmark camera and I am looking forward to being at Photokina on 26/9 when, hopefully all will be revealed.
Hello Mark,
You're absolutely right, I referred to the camera as the M8 - simply quoting this forum - but who knows? And I think 26/9 might be a good date to have a look at it!
Just to add a few things about our long-term prospect: ACM owns a few other smaller companies which are suppliers to the optical sector in Germany. We started our commitment in 2002 and entered into Leica in 2004. 2005 was a very rough year for Leica but we helped together with Hermès to refinance Leica Camera. So Leica is now in a much better shape to create interesting products.
Mark Norton
07-08-2006, 14:45
Dr Kaufmann, thank you for that additional information. It's certainly interesting that your investment in Leica forms part of a wider portfolio in the industry. Leica Camera looks to be in safe hands.
I think many users were surprised by the original Hermès investment because the fit did not seem particularly good given their other brands. Was Leica nothing more than a lifestyle brand after all? It's good that Hermès remain committed for the time being and I note their CEO is also on the Supervisory Board of Leica Camera.
It's better though that the majority ownership is with an investor whose other interests are more closely allied to Leica's own business.
Since Photokina happens only every two years, I feel certain Leica Camera will make a bold statement and set out its stall for the next 2 years. The "M8", one or two new M lenses, something new in sport optics plus new products from the continuing collaboration with Panasonic.
All in all, an interesting time. My travel to Cologne is booked...
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